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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

gfs p  brings in the deep cold air again at the end .

Yer another good ending on the para

F843BB2A-83B9-4F9C-8460-D37E41DF1B5C.png

8337DEEE-6E4A-4AD2-BB9F-824952153481.png

01A14CB4-D214-4B4C-A113-2A40637FE7F0.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Some heights to the nw please ecm day 5 

Still mighty borderline at 96hrs, though there isn't quite the SE extension of lower heights seen on the GEM which may allow this ECM 12z to look more like the UKMO tonight and hopefully bring some goodies for at least some of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, Don said:

Any delay is alarm bells.  Been here too many times before!

Yep , those 12 hours will make all the difference 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T120, I think we might be OK just, the weak ridge should push the low away slowly now.  Won’t know for sure til the T144...on it goes.

EE3A8205-590F-4086-8C77-3833D42C3956.thumb.png.e51deb93b617727b67c9b0f5740ece7a.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer anther good ending on the para

 

 

But yet again that's another 10 days away, more likely of the "RANDOM" showing southerly wind arrows forecast coming true

Edited by Neilsouth
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

EC 120, not sure quite what to make of it at this stage in proceedings.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120, I think we might be OK just:

EE3A8205-590F-4086-8C77-3833D42C3956.thumb.png.e51deb93b617727b67c9b0f5740ece7a.png

Do you ? 

I have just launched my laptop through the window lol

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, MJB said:

Yep , those 12 hours will make all the difference 

We will see, but not overly pleased with tonight’s runs!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Nope from ecm at 120 hours!!!looks worse than ukmo and quite a bit worse than gfs!!remember what i said earlier!!!it might look like a middle ground but eventually gfs will go full on ecm!!!!can it rescue it at 144 hours?!i still pray for a miracle and we can see changes earlier on the 00z run!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well the 12z ECM is a step forward in some respects, but we still have one issue very much present:

ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.252510d303e864b85d37148e5255abb8.png

That little upper feature with lower thicknesses is going to rotate SW/S and runs a real risk of getting absorbed into the Atlantic low. This is basically what caused the GEM to be so shockingly poor the south of England as it closed the door to any real cold coming down.

Its better, but is it going to be good enough to avoid a close but no cigar?

Can't help but feel we are drifting away from an easterly and more towards a possible battleground type solution tonight, which obviously has its pros and cons as well depending on where you are.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We’d better hope those blues don’t hit the upstream low and phase at day 6 .

Nerve shredding !

Absolutely, touch and go!

T144 and it is still not certain, looks messy though:

790A281E-9054-43BC-9622-CF86B6AE0E08.thumb.png.d97b632c9594fcef1c58e5c4d6eadfda.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ECM 144hrs:

Goodbye easterly, it was nice to know you!

Hello slider and battleground, nice to see you!

Different solution compared to the GFS, but we can work with that still, even if it does struggle to get any easterly in from that position.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

EC playing the slow game but looks like it'll end up v cold.....

spacer.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the 12z ECM is a step forward in some respects, but we still have one issue very much present:

ECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.252510d303e864b85d37148e5255abb8.png

That little upper feature with lower thicknesses is going to rotate SW/S and runs a real risk of getting absorbed into the Atlantic low. This is basically what caused the GEM to be so shockingly poor the south of England as it closed the door to any real cold coming down.

Its better, but is it going to be good enough to avoid a close but no cigar?

Can't help but feel we are drifting away from an easterly and more towards a possible battleground type solution tonight, which obviously has its pros and cons as well depending on where you are.

 

This is a great post probably the best of the day. Clearly explains what is going on and a marked up chart. what’s not to like  

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Ok FI on EC is +144h as there are already huge changes to 00z

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