Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

In these set ups people need to think outside  IMBYISM because a model showing an alleged snow event at day 7 or 8 for the north is already on dodgy foundations when it’s earlier struggled to get the cold south right through the UK.

The GEM is one tweak away for zip for the whole UK . Heights are already being shunted west .

 

 

I think a lot of the North and North east is focused on Tues-Weds-Thurs as some places could get large snowfall amounts, with -10c uppers then pulling in for the weekend. That front is coming, will be looking at models now like UKV, Euro-4 etc to get a view of where, when and how much. The Scottish ski resorts must be gutted they can't open this winter ...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In these set ups people need to think outside  IMBYISM because a model showing an alleged snow event at day 7 or 8 for the north is already on dodgy foundations when it’s earlier struggled to get the cold south right through the UK.

The GEM is one tweak away for zip for the whole UK . Heights are already being shunted west .

 

 

Exactly, and the trend has shifted already in the short term in an unfavourable way between 72-120hrs (even the GFS) towards something much closer to the ECM solution in that time period.

Is it hard to believe that it can't shift again. 

Equally I'm sure the ECM could shift closer to the others, indeed thats what I'd expect. However a middle ground solution is not good enough for the south at least, and quite possibly much of England/Wales, apart from perhaps some snow-rain event between 192-240hrs. Which who knows, maybe enough for some of us?

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brynmawr
  • Location: Brynmawr
49 minutes ago, MJB said:

Totally agree , they clearly don't understand charts 

Its not that they don't understand, its that they have been here before with models backtracking, and that often starts with the delay of any cold.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Short answer  YES...

In that set up=flow it's fridged...as for the imby quotes...ironically if the low tracks and we get the ace draw =feed...the southerners...are in the freezer...and snow globe on a big scale...enuff of that though now @imby ism...drives me crazy tbf!!!!

 

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I'm not expecting EC to push this low through like UKMO 00z now.

Esp after UKMO 12Z , what I am hoping is to see EC make more of the blocking to our NE ...

So, expecting a choppy 96-120 then hopefully something more palatable at 144...

Thats my plan !!

Let's see  ..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

GFS Op and Control well supported to 8th Feb at least

 

gfs-pontypool-gb-515n-3w (3).png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

No complaints at 144 on the para.

Ian f has hinted that the easterly maybe be delayed and he is as neutral as they come.

 

gfsnh-0-144 (23).png

gfsnh-1-144 (1).png

I know someone will moan, but it's a variation on a theme up to here. Consistency, but is it correct?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
4 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

The last easterly brought almost constant heavy rain and hail in my location and that was uppers of -7 -8 with a sea temp about 8c. 

Yes, no doubt locally there was some heavier showers around but from what I remember, the showers were very small in nature(for the most part) and cloud tops was flatter because thicknesses was not low enough to generate proper instability. One thing as you say that would favour this easterly to the previous one would be colder air and sea temperatures so any showers should be of snow but the rates of snow accumulating will be slower than say a true deep convective easterly. I think its a myth when people say the models underestimate PPN strength, it don't as thicknesses plays a part. It's not as simple as - 10 and a warm North Sea means lots of heavy snow showers. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I know someone will moan, but it's a variation on a theme up to here. Consistency, but is it correct?

One thing that has happened on the 12z suite is a movement towards a much delayed push southwards of the cold air. Indeed GEM never even makes it, and the UKMO is probably only just about good enough as well.

Most runs have been good for the north. Much more mixed for the south.

I think its going to be very galling for us down here if the north gets hammered, whilst we end up again with rain...especially those poor guys in the SE which have had the total sum of 0 so far. 

Personally, I'm not as bothered as so to speak, I've had mine already this winter now and 1 event is normally enough to leave me satisfied.  But if I didn't get that event, I'd hate some of those outputs tonight big time.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

One thing that has happened on the 12z suite is a movement towards a much delayed push southwards of the cold air. Indeed GEM never even makes it, and the UKMO is probably only just about good enough as well.

Most runs have been good for the north. Much more mixed for the south.

I think its going to be very galling for us down here if the north gets hammered, whilst we end up again with rain...especially those poor guys in the SE which have had the total sum of 0 so far. 

Personally, I'm not as bothered as so to speak, I've had mine already this winter now and 1 event is normally enough to leave me satisfied.  But if I didn't get that event, I'd hate some of those outputs tonight big time.

Yes I'm mindful of those yet to see snow, it would be a bitter pill if the North gets hammered with snow.

Let's get those colder uppers down across the country first ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Slightly lower thickness on the GFSp allowing fir more convection so light snow for eastern areas ...

596DB13D-3B86-4472-B353-78201EB3A5F5.png

CA83D4BF-4D9A-4098-97FA-5619A08F08A2.png

E9971434-9623-4119-A155-16FD2FC46B5A.png

Edited by Tim Bland
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

No complaints at 144 on the para.

Ian f has hinted that the easterly maybe be delayed and he is as neutral as they come.

 

gfsnh-0-144 (23).png

gfsnh-1-144 (1).png

Delayed..... No... The days longer the sun stronger.. The paths warmer.... Can't think of owt else

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

phil blake 

 

the north sea is mostly 5 and 6 C not 6 and 7 , which is really pretty cold . 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

phil blake 

 

the north sea is mostly 5 and 6 C not 6 and 7 , which is really pretty cold . 

Bit pedantic lol  

It is actually still above average for this time of year. Anyhow, -10c 850s and some instability will certainly do the trick. Some parts of the SE got 30mm of rain from the NY easterly.....it was not torrential, but just didn't stop.

30mm rain = 1ft of snow - think about that for a minute.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
24 minutes ago, ptow said:

Isn’t that-4 850 in the south? Would that still be cold?

3c and a sleety wet mess but would definitely feel cold !

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
2 hours ago, Catacol said:

There are signs in the pacific of a substantive increase in AAM. Never easy to predict exactly how this indicator will develop, but let’s take a stab. Mountain torque has spiked significantly

image.thumb.gif.210c3836e506367ab3683f577ab08a9f.gif
and we have a rise in relative tendency already in the bank

image.thumb.gif.c83d61448d6dc64758aad4191fa55898.gif

The GWO orbit has begin the rise from the more Niña orbit that took hold in mid January

image.thumb.gif.260bbfac06e5a62e0bfc896844e77c40.gif
and if Ventrice’s GFS based predictor is anything close to accurate we may be about to see a quite significant rise into a higher orbit

image.thumb.png.b7e6093e0509df0df4b9b9bc11be4514.png

What does all this gobbledygook mean? Putting it simply, westerlies at the equator are predicted to increase as the MJO moves into that key 7/8/1 zone which lies in the western Pacific. Westerlies here will help suppress the sub tropical ridges that are mostly responsible for +NAO patterns in our sector, and the downstream wave pattern produced by a surge in these westerlies strongly favours northern blocking.

 Putting this into a broader big winter context, the distressed vortex and dislocation to Asia through January was able to override the tropospheric signal which at that point had convection in the Indian Ocean and a downstream forcing which would have usually promoted a +NAO signature. See the seasonals for the impact. But seasonals do not predict SSW events well at all, and we have come to know that a SSW event is our golden trump card - never guaranteed to bring in Siberia, but guaranteed to throw the hemispheric pattern into chaos. We have reaped the benefits of this despite the disappointing failure to split, and the northern part of the country has seen cold and a lot of snow....and the south has seen some too. And now....with the vortex still in distress and currently undergoing another hit to its strength we have the troposphere coming to our aid.

So...unless reasonable interpretation of what’s happening in the Pacific is way off we can expect back to back cold months this season, and maybe in February we can tap into a period of sustained and severe cold. January was a real rollercoaster for weather lovers. So much happened....so much potential and excitement and twists and turns. February will be no different I suspect. 

 


 

 

 

The question is the stratosphere still warming and at what temperature I know the previous warming has not done us any favour

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.a7e30c434df9a290ce4974fd49bee1fd.png

Ukmo looks primed !

Yes from a NH perspective, if the low heights in the North Sea clear off eastwards/south eastwards rather than just fill or move off to it's favourite place the Norwegian Sea but the pattern I would think the forcing would suggest otherwise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I get the feeling we are going to go from winter straight to warm weather akin to 2018.The warmings are going to have a longlasting effect and I think the PV will remain on a sabaticle. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS ground temp ensemble graph for NW England at just day 2 shows around a 10C spread 

 

graphe6_00000_235_37___.gif

Take all output with a large dose of salt

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Bit pedantic lol  

It is actually still above average for this time of year. Anyhow, -10c 850s and some instability will certainly do the trick. Some parts of the SE got 30mm of rain from the NY easterly.....it was not torrential, but just didn't stop.

30mm rain = 1ft of snow - think about that for a minute.

Umm 30mm is 3cm...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Galleywood
  • Location: Galleywood
30 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

There be convection because of the cold air over 'warm' seas situation but as the PPN charts show, it will be more shallow convection because the instability won't be as low as it would be if thicknesses and pressure was lower. 

Just think of the last easterly we had, lots of showers but very small in nature and cloud tops quite flat so almost stratus cumulus type rather Cumonimbus type. 

With some nice Streamers hopefully

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But that (I think) was an entirely different situation:

The air that reached us, via Scandinavia, in early January, started-out with T850s of around 20C and was progressively cooled, resulting in relatively high dewpoints; so Uppers of -7C were simply not cold enough for non-marginal snowfall;

The air we MIGHT get, next week, starts out cold and dry, and only really picks up warmth & moisture as it crosses the North Sea, resulting in very low dewpoints; and combining that with Uppers of colder than -10C, marginality shouldn't be any problem whatsoever;

And... the North Sea SSTs are lower than they were, at the very beginning of January!

Well, at least that's the way I see it!

Indeed. I was pointing out that good convection is still more than possible. We had good convection during the last easterly all be it rain

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...