Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[kold weather]

Just now, Frosty Winter said:

UKMO 12z still looks decent by t144.

Unfortunately thats a classic north-south split again from what I can tell, with easterly into the north whilst the south has to make do with rain and marignal rubbish.

Also thats not going to be all that impressive in terms of cold lasting a while, that LP in the Atlantic will be coming in by 192hrs based on that run, and may not have enough time for much cold to become established before we'd get another slider attempt.

 

[Snowman.]

Just now, Don said:

Still trending the wrong way though which is not what we wanted to see!

Its gone from Scandi high with high heights south but cold. To Greenie hegihts delayed cold but with more instability.

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

UKMO 12z a definite downgrade sadly.

Nothing to be sad about - it's still looks good.

I'll take this at 144

[tight isobar]

The ukmo

 

 

is a belter all in ALL...people saying it's ####=!??? Really.?????

[Harsh Climate]

Anyone who says the ukmo 12 z isn't great needs there eyes testing!  Looks bloody good to me.

[Singularity]

GFS has pretty much reverted to it’s 00z run for the weekend. So no alarm bells there.

UKMO seems a reasonable compromise given the circumstances. Not idea but far from poor although the 850s are pending...

Edited January 31, 2021 by Singularity

[winterof79]

I really do think some people are going to end up Kneeing themselves in their face if you know what I'm getting at .

[IDO]

Great cold pool to the east on the gfs so if we can get an easterly it could get more interesting:

d6>

 

[saintkip]

Some people love a downgrade, Looks UKMO looks good to me 

[Snowmaggedon]

Again, just like this morning it’s very confusing on here why not let the whole run complete before commenting!

[phil nw.]

UK at t144 just about clears our low to the east with a wrap around north easterly.

A bit of a delay but the cold is trying to move in.The Low to the west is still a concern,if they phase together then it will hold back any further progress south.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Unfortunately thats a classic north-south split again from what I can tell, with easterly into the north whilst the south has to make do with rain and marignal rubbish.

Also thats not going to be all that impressive in terms of cold lasting a while, that LP in the Atlantic will be coming in by 192hrs based on that run, and may not have enough time for much cold to become established before we'd get another slider attempt.

 

The low in the Atlantic is already disrupting and phasing with the UK low, the energy is going South of the UK.

[Badgers01]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Anyone who says the ukmo 12 z isn't great needs there eyes testing!  Looks bloody good to me.

Let’s see what the 850’s look like ..? We have had plenty of reasonable looking charts this season that actually deliver poor conditions on the ground for snow and ice 

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Anyone who says the ukmo 12 z isn't great needs there eyes testing!  Looks bloody good to me.

Totally agree , they clearly don't understand charts 

[ICE COLD]

Gfs keeping the faith here . Lovely

[TSNWK]

Nice chart and the low towards Iberia is edging north and squeezing it up nicely.. I prefer this gfs so far than this mornings.. 

 

[Chesil View]

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Nothing to be sad about - it's still looks good.

I'll take this at 144

never have understood why people watch the runs on meteociel if they were watching on wetterzentrale with its much better map projection they would see that the atlantic low is disrupting against the building high on the ukmo 144

[MJB]

UK 144

[kold weather]

Rough snow-rain line from the UKMO which would slowly sag southwards between 144-192hrs

This by the way is roughly where it would stay between 144-192hrs, though there will be some possible south/north motion along that rough line.

The LP in the atlantic would probably try and disrupt ESE along the boundary and that will hopefully eventually drag that snow line to the south, but it would take a while I'd think.

UKMO is not bad, but its a huge downgrade compared to the 00z.

PS - Yes the low is disrupting BUT there is only very marginal forcing to send yhat line further south, so those in the south are going to be totally dependent on that upper low in the Atlantic plunging far enough SE. Hardly something to be too confident about.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

GFS has pretty much reverted to it’s 00z run for the weekend. So no alarm bells there.

UKMO seems a reasonable compromise given the circumstances. Not idea but far from poor although the 850s are pending...

850's

[MJB]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Nice chart and the low towards Iberia is edging north and squeezing it up nicely.. I prefer this gfs so far than this mornings.. 

 

A UK 168 won't be far away from that 

[goosey007]

 

Amazing UKMO sticks to its guns in the grand scheme of things ........ECM will surely come into line this evening

[Fozfoster]

model thread can drive you mad........yes,no,right,left. anyway more corona and after eight chocolate please

[Mike Poole]

UKMO, GFS and ICON at T144:

I don’t see this as models flipping between runs, it is more there is an envelope of uncertainty that we have in our minds, and what changes things is when a model shows something outside of it - like the ECM 0z, for me.  All runs so far on the 12z suite are within the uncertainty envelope I have in my mind, so that is all good.  The UKMO is not as good as this morning but it is still fine, the GFS looks good and so does the ICON.

On to the GEM, GFS // and ECM.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Again, just like this morning it’s very confusing on here why not let the whole run complete before commenting!

I noticed you posted the same this morning.. it’s how it rolls here in winter and in particular when there is a chance of something for us coldies.. cut and thrust and at a fast pace is the way it’s been for years..

April is good time for considered viewing or the ignore button to reduce volume of posts