Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

There are signs in the pacific of a substantive increase in AAM. Never easy to predict exactly how this indicator will develop, but let’s take a stab. Mountain torque has spiked significantly

and we have a rise in relative tendency already in the bank

. 

The GWO orbit has begin the rise from the more Niña orbit that took hold in mid January

and if Ventrice’s GFS based predictor is anything close to accurate we may be about to see a quite significant rise into a higher orbit

What does all this gobbledygook mean? Putting it simply, westerlies at the equator are predicted to increase as the MJO moves into that key 7/8/1 zone which lies in the western Pacific. Westerlies here will help suppress the sub tropical ridges that are mostly responsible for +NAO patterns in our sector, and the downstream wave pattern produced by a surge in these westerlies strongly favours northern blocking.

 Putting this into a broader big winter context, the distressed vortex and dislocation to Asia through January was able to override the tropospheric signal which at that point had convection in the Indian Ocean and a downstream forcing which would have usually promoted a +NAO signature. See the seasonals for the impact. But seasonals do not predict SSW events well at all, and we have come to know that a SSW event is our golden trump card - never guaranteed to bring in Siberia, but guaranteed to throw the hemispheric pattern into chaos. We have reaped the benefits of this despite the disappointing failure to split, and the northern part of the country has seen cold and a lot of snow....and the south has seen some too. And now....with the vortex still in distress and currently undergoing another hit to its strength we have the troposphere coming to our aid.

So...unless reasonable interpretation of what’s happening in the Pacific is way off we can expect back to back cold months this season, and maybe in February we can tap into a period of sustained and severe cold. January was a real rollercoaster for weather lovers. So much happened....so much potential and excitement and twists and turns. February will be no different I suspect. 

 

 

 

 

Amazing post Catacol, than you. I found it really very helpful in trying to understand some the large array of forces involved with the weather and getting cold to our shores 

[Battleground Snow]

I can't believe I'm posting a 90 hour icon chart, but critically the heights around Iceland are better and the low is getting squashed/disrupting south east more compared to its 06z run. A little move away from the ECM

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[SLEETY]

haha looks like ecm going to be a big fail,icon not going with it in 12 hour newer data

 

[tight isobar]

Couple of randoms via 6z ..@500s can we get the ops to flurish today@iberian sector..@a more fluid flow!!!!#easterly.

[Gowon]

Up to 102 on ICON and we have better heights to our north 

Compare to this mornings

Edited January 31, 2021 by D.V.R

[Snowman.]

And so it begins, biggest 12z this year.

Over analysing charts at 96 is usually silly but not now, not with some much on the line for coldies.

Behind the sofa for the next hour and a bit.

[Chesil View]

First piece of (good) afternoon news. The meto extended remains unchange from yesterday.  So their models do not look to be following this mornings ECM op.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

Up to 102 on ICON and we have better heights to our north 

Haha.. yes micro scurinty of icon.. I wonder what the IT folk think with all the hits etc...

looks better, now will the low scoot of SE  NE or fill in situ

[tight isobar]

The German.model out of the stools..@12z.  And looking dandy @overall.

 

 

...the big guns up next @gfs @ukmo @ecm...keep watching .!!✌

Edited January 31, 2021 by tight isobar

[Battleground Snow]

And breathe at 126, big move to ukmo.

May not be a beast yet but definitely cold!

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Haha.. yes micro scurinty of icon.. I wonder what the IT folk think with all the hits etc...

looks better, now will the low scoot of SE  NE or fill in situ

Going SE!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Haha.. yes micro scurinty of icon.. I wonder what the IT folk think with all the hits etc...

looks better, now will the low scoot of SE  NE or fill in situ

It went east and looks better.. one little hurdle navigated but it is icon

[northwestsnow]

Icon gives two fingers to EC...

120

[Kentspur]

Fantastic Icon much much better than this morning!

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Kentspur

[joggs]

Feel a ECM backtrack imo. Not been overly impressed by it this winter.

 

[StingJet]

26 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not gonna happen pal...there will be an-easterly flow by late next week...the scrutiny should only be how established.=prologned she becomes!!!...see ya @the 12z suites.✌

 

I'd be with you on that TI.  Yesterday evening I had a stab a raising a discussion of MetO and Beeb extended outlooks vs  ECM OP , but failed miserably with no conclusive evidence to support my observations over recent weeks of the aforementioned two's extended outlooks running reasonably close to the ECM Op. Today's MetO extended outlook is consistent with their previous updates and still eludes to northern blocking / Scandi High for the run into the middle of Feb. As to the ECM Op still scratching my head on that one ..somewhat running to a Bartlet'eque solution at run's end

[Timmytour]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

It went east and looks better.. one little hurdle navigated but it is icon

Looks like it's over the Netherlands now..... isn't that what someone mentioned earlier?

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Feel a ECM backtrack imo. Not been overly impressed by it this winter.

 

I said that this morning. Since it’s upgrade a few years ago, it’s just not been the same. 

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Looks like it's over the Netherlands now..... isn't that what someone mentioned earlier?

Yes I thiink it was Voldermurrt.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Timmytour said:

Looks like it's over the Netherlands now..... isn't that what someone mentioned earlier?

Think I read something on tweet thread a tweet from who someone who cannot be named...;) about the 06z mean and a low over Holland..

[TSNWK]

Much better from icon.. can we stop the count now oh heck I’m all in with UKM it’s that time of year we need it to land like this morning.

*moves a stack of chips to center of table, signals for a drink and waits

[Stu_London]

Better ICON this afternoon.

One of the problems with expectations is that some runs have been outlandishly cold and long lasting (1 in 50 year events) and the more you look at perturbations like this the higher the expectation. 

Anyone who saw the 18Z GFS para last night will be aware of what I am saying, which was probably the gold standard of output cold ramping.

A one in fifty year event will come along one day, but the chances are it will not be today. We have been fortunately enough to have two such events (Dec 10 and Mar 13) in the relative recent past, so we know that they still do happen, which is why we still keep looking.

 

 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

cant find him on twitter. Whats his profile?

I don’t have Twitter personall but you can see the handle in tweet thread a post from @Griff this afternoon 

[northwestsnow]

Icon is truly fabulous and shows what is possible once that low clears ..

[Methuselah]

Come on, peeps, chins up? Any minute now, today's 'massive', 'crucial', immense', 'mahoosive', 'life-defining' GFS 12Z will be rolling out!