Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Hatewarmth]

1 minute ago, Hatewarmth said:

We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

Sorry doctor I quoted the wrong post.  Meant to quote where he describes each model lol

[TSNWK]

Ummm looked a little better very early.. however at 120 it has the low still over us.. move towards ECM?
 

 

[tight isobar]

Incoming on the 6z...and we are gaining on the wrap around=introducing of deeper pooling.=colder.@eventually...the ecm lagging big time...imo!!!   Cannot post images atm....

Edited January 31, 2021 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

At T120 UKMO better have this right . 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z so far not quite as good as the 00z for Thursday/Friday, as it props the low up over northern Britain rather than 00z which had it W/SW of Ireland.

Yeah this is going to be a poorer run IMO, at least between 144-192hrs.

Expect a brief weak NW shot followed by an atlantic breakdown on this 06z run. Maybe snow from any frontal push between 192-240hrs.

As I said before the only thing that matters is the LP over our shores. If it stays you can kiss goodbye to any meaningful cold spell. End of story as it'll get absorbed into the Atlantic LP developing eventually and force a weak as dish water NW intrusion 

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Vikos]

4 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

I expect the ECM will be brought back into line over the next couple of runs.

Why? Because it doesn't match ones favour? Thats wishful thinking but not synoptical logic.

[TSNWK]

Yep. Looks likely that we have a Uk against the rest situation.. where’s your money.

[ICE COLD]

Split pv on the 6z 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

06z GFS is alot closer to the ICOM/ECM solution of holding that cut off low over the UK for longer.

This run MAY not evolve as well as previous ones.

Don't bother looking upstream yet, everything that is KEY for us even getting a cold spell is right on our doorstep.

Yeh it has little, but I think it will still just get away with it as  high pressure is just strong enough over Iceland 

UKMO at 4pm will be fascinating viewing.

 

[MJB]

ECM 120

GFS 120

Very alike in terms of this pesky LP

Edited January 31, 2021 by MJB

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yeh it has little, but I think it will still just get away with it as  high pressure is just strong enough over Iceland 

UKMO at 4pm will be fascinating viewing.

 

Its going to be a mighty struggle though with such a limpet upper low over the UK. May get a brief easterly still but the atlantic low is going to push over the UK as per 00z ECM.

Honestly the HP means nothing if the cutoff low just lingers, there isn't huge forcing from that HP to our north to shunt it all southwards on this run, and we've seen what the ECM does longer on.

Besides the trend is real clear this morning towards the ECM solution between 72-120hrs, any one arguing against that is willfully ignoring that simple thing.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Man With Beard]

Had a look at individual ECM ensembles at T162.

Only 3 out of 51 were close to the op run in terms of that low over northern Scotland.

The far more likely way we'll avoid the easterly, according to the ensembles, is by the low clearly too quickly, leaving us under high pressure (though still probably cold).

I feel fairly content having seen the ensembles one by one that the ECM op is going to be too far north with that low between D6 and D7.

[MJB]

144 is key, its at that point ECM shoots off to the high end of the ENS

Edited January 31, 2021 by MJB

[Tim Bland]

Just now, MJB said:

ECM 120

GFS 120

Very alike 

Yes but there is no phasing on the GFS giving it more chance to sink south. No model  is right or wrong lol they will all merge.

ps if you need a snow fix tune into the demonstration coverage in Moscow on the news channels...makes me wanna join the riot ️

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, MJB said:

Not really , the passion and chase for snow will always remain no matter what the circumstances even more so I'd say given the boredom most are experiencing .

The chase for snow is fine I agree but not the dramatics by adults. Here's hoping for some snow anyways whatever your collective thoughts ete. 

[StormyLincs]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

ECM 120

GFS 120

Very alike 

Looks like a douze point to the ECM for sticking to its guns

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, kold weather said:

Its going to be a mighty struggle though with such a limpet upper low over the UK. May get a brief easterly still but the atlantic low is going to push over the UK as per 00z ECM.

Honestly the HP means nothing if the cutoff low just lingers, there isn't huge forcing from that HP to our north to shunt it all southwards on this run, and we've seen what the ECM does longer on.

 

Surely it will help push it further south than the ECM though? Even its just a nudge out the way that's all we need

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes but there is no phasing on the GFS giving it more chance to sink south. No model  is right or wrong lol they will all merge.

ps if you need a snow fix tune into the demonstration coverage in Moscow on the news channels...makes me wanna join the riot ️

Yes , that's very true . 

Yep , I saw that , half of them are only there for the snow lol 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Incoming on the 6z...and we are gaining on the wrap around=introducing of deeper pooling.=colder.@eventually...the ecm lagging big time...imo!!!   Cannot post images atm....

See what you’re saying @tight isobar as shown on below uppers.. however so annoying this run as that pesky low over us is now filling in situ and preventing the amazing Synoptics to our north.

 

[Duncan McAlister]

I could actually get some snow out of this!

[ICE COLD]

T156 looks ok ? 

[kold weather]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Yes but there is no phasing on the GFS giving it more chance to sink south. No model  is right or wrong lol they will all merge.

ps if you need a snow fix tune into the demonstration coverage in Moscow on the news channels...makes me wanna join the riot ️

The one good thing is the LP to our west is pretty weak by 144hrs.

Might end up with the north in a mean easterly and the south not actually getting all that cold due to the angle of the LP?

Looks like a decent snow event for the north though between 144-168hrs. 

[markw2680]

From my experience in the models, do we not always say until ukmo is on board then it’s likely to go the shape of a pear? In this case ukmo is clearly what we are looking for so I’d say there’s a good chance the others will slowly fall in line. Not exactly the same but we will get a bit of a blend. No point worrying about every single opp run lol. 
oh well who’s excited for the 12z???

[stratty]

Just now, TSNWK said:

See what you’re saying @tight isobar as shown on below uppers.. however so annoying this run as that pesky low over us is now filling in situ and preventing the amazing Synoptics to our north.

 

Could bring a snow covering before the easterly sets in though?  

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Had a look at individual ECM ensembles at T162.

Only 3 out of 51 were close to the op run in terms of that low over northern Scotland.

The far more likely way we'll avoid the easterly, according to the ensembles, is by the low clearly too quickly, leaving us under high pressure (though still probably cold).

I feel fairly content having seen the ensembles one by one that the ECM op is going to be too far north with that low between D6 and D7.

Quite... and to illustrate

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Purga