Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[TSNWK]

06z underway & Holding steady  well someone had to do it....

 

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If EC is right i won't be logging on.

Peeps dont like it when we say certain things on here but tough luck lol!!!after looking closer to the ukmo and ecm the differences start as early as 72 hours!!!!ukmo further south and disrupts a bit more over the uk whereas ecm shoves further north and east!!if you were to ask me which ones right i would say ecm allll daaaayyy long mate!!!for it to be wrong at 72 hours is very very very rare!!!!!!not EXPECTING a good outcome later northwest but i hope for everyones and my sanity that the ecm does one of those big u turns that it very rarely does!!!i an an ecm fan because it is the king of all models in my opinion but as i mentioned yesterday every king has its bad day!!will that be today?!you damn well better hope so!!!

[Vikos]

24 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Wondering how this will shake up in our neck of the woods. GEFS are pretty crazy from day 5 but this is probably the last chance for something significant here. If this fails I'm ready for spring. 

 

EC is on the outter rim of possibilities, GEFS looking good with a stunning control run. But I would not say it's the last chance. Patterns are good, cold is very near (on the continent) ---> Russia

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This circulating on Twitter is interesting.. 

Posters surmise that since Tuesday the ECM error has been decreasing, while the others have been increasing.  My view of it is that ECM (whilst improving) is still not doing as well as the others...most importantly UKMO   

Presumably the lower the line the better ........ecm with less error at day 3 

[blizzard81]

27 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Proves you cannot discount what the ECM is showing now,,,could start to see other models back track from the Easterly scenario over the next day or so 

I fully expect this to happen. This is based on past experience. Ecm op is top dog at days 5 to 7. If it goes in a different direction the other models will eventually follow. 

[Rocheydub]

Squeaky bum time coming up on the 6z....

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Presumably the lower the line the better ........ecm with less error at day 3 

Ahh ok, makes sense. Still looks like EC / UKM are close.  Sound like some are expecting one model to be right and one to be wrong. It rarely works like that though does it... We are likely to see a meeting in the middle, probably somewhere between UKMO & ECM, it probably won’t be sorted today, perhaps tomorrow.. 

[Scandinavian High.]

So if ecm is right does that mean yesterday’s meto update is a bust.

[TSNWK]

Very early.. but at 72 I reckon the low to the north west of Ireland is about 50 miles further south east compared with 00z 78

[mbrothers]

2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

So if ecm is right does that mean yesterday’s meto update is a bust.

And if tomorrow’s Neto update is correct then today’s ecm is wrong 

[swfc]

Edited
That said the outcome however it lands probably if "its what looks possible at best" would provide a slack easterly and a cold spell. Gfs, ukmo look cold with wintry precipitation in places esp to the far north. Beyond that ie 144 hrs nothing to get uptight about on the basis you can't change it. Whatever the weather stay safe, and count your blessings

Edited January 31, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[MJB]

Just now, swfc said:

Seems to be quite a few drama queen's on here this morning close to breaking point over the mo, jesus it's just weather and given the current state of affairs slightly sillyThat said the outcome however it lands probably if "its what looks possible at best" would provide a slack easterly and a cold spell. Gfs, ukmo look cold with wintry precipitation in places esp to the far north. Beyond that ie 144 hrs nothing to get uptight about on the basis you can't change it. Whatever the weather stay safe, and count your blessings

Not really , the passion and chase for snow will always remain no matter what the circumstances even more so I'd say given the boredom most are experiencing .

[That ECM]

Moved further away from ecm

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z okay so far!!doesnt back ukmo however at day 3!!!

[kold weather]

Good to see the ECM again is right at the top end of the mean for its ensembles, suggests most of its ensembles are moving the LP in a more favorable way than the OP does, though I've not thumbed through the actual runs, the mean suggests that is the case as well.

 

[ICE COLD]

Looks pretty similar at day 4 to UKMO. 

[kold weather]

06z GFS is alot closer to the ICOM/ECM solution of holding that cut off low over the UK for longer.

This run MAY not evolve as well as previous ones.

Don't bother looking upstream yet, everything that is KEY for us even getting a cold spell is right on our doorstep.

May still get there but poorer run incoming I fear.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[sheikhy]

If you want the quickest route to cold you want ukmo to be right and in my opinion i dont think it is and that is at day 3!!!!pretty bad that is!!!!

[Speedbird]

8 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

And if tomorrow’s Neto update is correct then today’s ecm is wrong 

I expect the ECM will be brought back into line over the next couple of runs.

[Hatewarmth]

2 hours ago, doctormog said:

Re. Your last point, the ECM op runs have been a very long way from being consistent.

We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

[kold weather]

Yep LP is moving in a bad way for the UK between 102-114hrs with slight NE drift, complete opposite direction we want it to go.

The 06z run is not going to go the way we want it to at least in the medium term, definite shift towards the ECM on this run, big time.

Given most models have already delayed the LP moving out of the way by 24hrs compared to yesterday other than the UKMO, I fear there is a clear and obvious trend line starting to emerge towards ECM solution today.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Hatewarmth said:

We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

Do you have stats to back up your FACT?

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

If you want the quickest route to cold you want ukmo to be right and in my opinion i dont think it is and that is at day 3!!!!pretty bad that is!!!!

It’s never that simple though mate. I’ve seen it for decades. The models almost always meet in the middle , there is no clear winner or right & wrong.  GFS moves a bit towards ECM, then ECM moves a bit towards GFS ..and so on , until they meet in the middle. UKMO will not be right or wrong come the day, it will -almost definitely look like a blend of the other models, the changes are subtle, run by run, it doesn’t suddenly flip so it’s often un noticed. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Nick F]

06z so far not quite as good as the 00z for Thursday/Friday, as it props the low up over northern Britain rather than 00z which had it W/SW of Ireland.

[MJB]

 GFS 96

 ECM 96

They aren't that different I'm afraid 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by MJB