Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Battleground Snow]

It's still everything v the ECM OP at the moment, even the icon is nothing like the ECM at 180.

@mulzy will hopefully calm the panic shortly with an EPS update

[That ECM]

T144 all 3. Ukmo and gfs are good and ecm has moved again towards the other two. Onto 12z’s

[supernova]

Cross model agreement scuppered by a damply uninspiring ECM and a messy Icon, but at least the UKMO is on board. GFS broadly signed up although Op doesn’t get there very cleanly and breaks down rather quickly too. Para blummin’ cold to the end and the GEFS mean still great including the Control which is ace throughout and finishes with a significant snow event followed by a solid high over the whole of the country so we can enjoy the snow. Could be a lot worse but ECM’s stubborn reluctance to join the ice party still casting a mean-spirited shadow on an otherwise encouraging set of 00s if we ignore the French model, which in light of Brexit we probably should until they give us back our fish! Take that you scallop-stealing Frenchies....

PS, quite fond of our French neighbours really.

[Stu_London]

9 minutes ago, doctormog said:

Re. Your last point, the ECM op runs have been a very long way from being consistent.

last three runs it been fairly obdurate with its theme

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Unfortunately I can only see this going one way now ECM is one of the most accurate models out there and with all the background signals we have had over the past 6 weeks and we haven’t had anything significant I’m throwing in the towel on this winter now as I can’t see anything significant at all we always get good charts 7- 10days out and it never falls into the reliable time frame unfortunately it’s one of the joys living in the UK sometimes we get lucky but unfortunately most cases we don’t on the plus side at least there won’t be any significant snow to disrupt vaccine distribution!

Not so sure. It had a huge flip yesterday from the previous evening output, where it showed no Northern blocking at all. 

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's still everything v the ECM OP at the moment, even the icon is nothing like the ECM at 180.

@mulzy will hopefully calm the panic shortly with an EPS update

The GFS only delivers quite a short snap and then even blows away the surface cold it was keen on yesterday 

[Chesil View]

13 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

If the UKMO does climb down this evening and southwesterlies start to become modelled then it's going to be a kick in the teeth for our winter prospects as a whole. February is on a knife edge now. 

The Meto will have seen the ECM 0z long before we do and saw no reason to change their  outlook this morning which probably tells us what they thought of it.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[mulzy]

Early news on the EPS mean - a slight improvement on last night (days 6-8).

[supernova]

32 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

last three runs it been fairly obdurate with its theme

Wins best word in a post competition @Stu_London

obdurate

adjective

stubbornly refusing to change one's opinion or course of action.

"I argued this point with him, but he was obdurate"

Model related only in as much as this perfectly defines the recent ECM, as Stu so succinctly points out. 

Btw, Gem ensembles vs GEFS for Lincolnshire showing reasonable alignment but also that whilst a colder period almost certainly looms, its full extent and duration remains very much in doubt.


Edit: Ignoring the ECM op, it’s right at the top of its ensembles almost from the get go. Next!

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by supernova

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Early news on the EPS mean - a slight improvement on last night (days 6-8).

Thank you, great news and fully expected 

[doctormog]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

last three runs it been fairly obdurate with its theme

If you mean none of them showing a cold easterly then yes. If you mean any other form of consistency, then absolutely not. Its ensemble data on the other hand to date have shown good consistency.

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

The GFS only delivers quite a short snap and then even blows away the surface cold it was keen on yesterday 

It's gets blown away after day 10, 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Stu_London]

Hey its all still up for grabs - where it ends up landing, no one can tell - probably no model has the correct solution.

3 minutes ago, doctormog said:

If you mean none of them showing a cold easterly then yes. If you mean any other form of consistency, then absolutely not. Its ensemble data on the other hand to date have shown good consistency.

you are right its been all over the place most of the winter - apart a short period around storm Bella where all the modelling was very good.

for the avoidance of doubt i was referring to the last few runs where it has steadfastly refused to buy into the easterly that others were showing in the same timeframe. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London

[Blessed Weather]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3. Ukmo and gfs are good and ecm has moved again towards the other two. Onto 12z’s

At t144 ECM is the only one of the top models to develop the low pressure over the UK (circled) to such an extent that it scuppers the feed of cold from the east. So is it top of the class or the dunce of the class? As you say, over to the 12z run to see if there's any sign of ECM backing down on this feature.

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's gets blown away after day 10, 

it only gets cold in the south after day 8!!

[PiscesStar]

14 minutes ago, supernova said:

Cross model agreement scuppered by a damply uninspiring ECM and a messy Icon, but at least the UKMO is on board. GFS broadly signed up although Op doesn’t get there very cleanly and breaks down rather quickly too. Para blummin’ cold to the end and the GEFS mean still great including the Control which is ace throughout and finishes with a significant snow event followed by a solid high over the whole of the country so we can enjoy the snow. Could be a lot worse but ECM’s stubborn reluctance to join the ice party still casting a mean-spirited shadow on an otherwise encouraging set of 00s if we ignore the French model, which in light of Brexit we probably should until they give us back our fish! Take that you scallop-stealing Frenchies....

PS, quite fond of our French neighbours really.

Even find fonder when we get snow 

[Battleground Snow]

I think even the CMA and FIM have a better handle on it than the ECM at the minute

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[sunnijim]

19 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3. Ukmo and gfs are good and ecm has moved again towards the other two. Onto 12z’s

Your username caused much debate yesterday as to when/ the scenario it was inspired by?

The situation in the 'broad spread' seems to be firming up for somthing notable with the usual model to model swings.

It will be a massive amount of Kudos to two much maligned models,the GEM and CFS if this all comes to pass.

Both pretty steadfastly calling for this scenario a good week or so before others followed.

 

[KTtom]

16 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

The Meto will have seen the ECM 0z long before we do and saw no reason to change their  outlook this morning which probably tells us what they thought of it.

To be fair, although it states on the site updated at 04.00, for some reason the text doesn't update until the afternoon, usually about 2ish, I don't know why this is but you will see it never alters overnight.

[Daniel*]

How strange 6-8th still looking particularly chilly with snow potential it does break in southwesterlies faster though but too far away to care really.

[Snowman.]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

How strange 6-8th still looking particularly chilly with snow potential it does break in southwesterlies faster though but too far away to care really.

You got the pressure charts Daniel?

[northwestsnow]

What is going on with the damn EC det???

There is always one model that can't behave in the run up to a cold spell.

Problem is , its usually right.

Nervous times in the run up to the crucial 12zs...

[Snowman.]

Should be noted that the Para doesn’t blow away the Easterly and offers a reload NE.

Something that if we do get an Easterly remains on the cards. 
 

Im fed up with the ECM is an improvement but it’s a real worry. UKMO is good which is nice until that turns I remain optimistic. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Snowman.

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

The Meto will have seen the ECM 0z long before we do and saw no reason to change their  outlook this morning which probably tells us what they thought of it.

do you know that?

I always thought the data came out around 6am .....certainly not before 4am when they issue 

 

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Your username caused much debate yesterday as to when/ the scenario it was inspired by?

The situation in the 'broad spread' seems to be firming up for somthing notable with the usual model to model swings.

It will be a massive amount of Kudos to two much maligned models,the GEM and CFS if this all comes to pass.

Both pretty steadfastly calling for this scenario a good week or so before others followed.

 

It was 12z run in December 2012. Can’t remember the exact date  5th maybe? I’ll have a look back later.

Edited January 31, 2021 by That ECM