Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That is good to see T150 @mulzy

That's a good chart. Easterly feed over the UK, potential low slding, will bring the risk of heavy frontal snowfall before sinking SE keeping the high proped up.

Nice.

[john mac1]

46 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

ECM certainly been on the sauce early tonight.  Wandering its own merry way.

Just drop you bugger. PS uppers are good -8 across the bulk

 

Can we get back to Covid tier4 . Then I can call the ECM the pub run as they shut at 6

[pinball wizard]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we are better off looking for signs from wildlife or seaweed than using the EC for guidance on the week ahead. Honestly...

Funny you should say that, my Grebes were awfully animated earlier...

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

End of December.

That didnt result in anything particularly cold or snowy for many in the UK tbh. 

[Anthony Burden]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we are better off looking for signs from wildlife or seaweed than using the EC for guidance on the week ahead. Honestly...

High Nick,

Any ideas why ECM seems to be way out on it’s own.

[Frosty.]

I’ve fallen madly and passionately in love with the Gem 12z..   ..yeah..get a room I hear you cry..      

Edited January 30, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Weather Boy]

3 minutes ago, StingJet said:

The ECM is unfortunately always correct. Especially when you cross reference its outputs with the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks, which tend to be aligned with the ECM out to 240.
I spent many years running the UK Stormtrack Topic on the GPS Speedsurfing Website , with the primary objective of calling off Speedsailing events here in the UK, the ECM / MetO have always been the form horse and tend to verify more often than other models such as the GFS .. .as you would well know mate

I'm not sure how it's possible for it to be "always correct" when it varies so much from run to run. I'm not suggesting it's alone, but saying it must be wrong sometimes.

[northwestsnow]

Hopefully det a little slow clearing the low...

Either way, the quicker the better....

News from mulzy would support the above but we need a better det in the morning or slower evolution it might be...

[Snowman.]

Just now, MKN said:

That didnt result in anything particularly cold or snowy for many in the UK tbh. 

Was still a period of below average temps. 

[kold weather]

The ECM ensembles are generally clearing the LP through quicker than the ECM op and I'd say 80-90% are better on that front at least. I'd say the ECM OP (which does have support from the control) is again right at the extreme end of how long the LP is likely to hang around.

However there really is a wide range of solutions on the 12z ensembles even at 144hrs so I'd say any solution, cold or mild is very low confidence. FI probably as soon as 96hrs at the moment due to the small differences in the actual LP position will make a huge difference in terms of actual UK weather.

[ribster]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Cold in December?

Did I miss something?

Clearly, been cold most of the winter, and perishingly cold today in the wind. Models continue to suggest that theme continues.

[Kentspur]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That is good to see T150 @mulzy

Need that area of low heights over the Algarve/Morocco/ Spain much further East though correct me if I'm wrong?

Edited January 30, 2021 by Kentspur

[Bermuda High]

Shades of feb 2019 where meto long range kept saying very cold Feb, snow, molegrips and nodecider all on board ,for weeks ... in the end warmest February ever....

[Daniel*]

Coldest T850s anoms it got in morning EPS compared to 12z that’s a visible improvement further south.

[jacke]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we are better off looking for signs from wildlife or seaweed than using the EC for guidance on the week ahead. Honestly...

Nick I must come in here!!!! Week or so ago I said was looking for nature to give a sign regarding possible changes, particularly gulls moving inland from the East coast to my area, about 40 miles inland from nearest coastal point. Lockdown has made this difficult but able to walk to open large housewaste  dump about 1 mile away.  Normal winter stock of gulls about 60. This morning difficult to be precise but certainly at least double that figure. Nearly 60 years of bird watching tells me that numbers only increase when unsettled or cold weather is in the offing on the coast. Something is afoot within the  next 5-6 days. Some or many may laugh at this but don't mock nature. If the weather was to dominate from the West I would not see these increases. Another pointer, I am within a few miles of the famous Welney Wash Reserve where hundreds of Bewick swans travel to over winter. Can't go there at the mo, but noticed something since Thursday. The flocks which leave the reserve during the day to feed and graze on agricultural land ( fields containing left over sugar beer tops one of their favourites) have been returning to the reserve later each evening. Signs that they are preparing for more extreme weather than currently? By the way Nick don't let your head grow, but I rate your predictions on here very highly

[northwestsnow]

That eps mean is

[ICE COLD]

15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

EPS trending better days 6-8.

Edit: days 6-10.

Seems to be aligning more with the GEFS.

Bloody hell Mulzy if the GFS /GEFS do over the ECM/ENS in this situation we’ll never hear the last of it from the GFS lovers of this forum . Not mentioning any names but it starts with I and ends in O . 
 

That’s brilliant news to here tho . Here’s one of your 850s chars you like courtesy of the GEM . 

[Gowon]

JMA is better tonight as well 

Today's

Yesterday's

 

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Coldest T850s anoms it got in morning EPS compared to 12z that’s a visible improvement further south.

Outstanding ECM means there. But the past 4 ECM ensemble means have all been different. That's not good for confidence. 

[phil b]

18 minutes ago, MKN said:

That didnt result in anything particularly cold or snowy for many in the UK tbh. 

Apart from the snow we had here on the 28th 29th and the the 2nd of Jan had morning snow and evening snow, definitely not mild

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by phil b

[Mark wheeler]

30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@Mark wheeler,...here you go buddy

the infamous NAVGEM

 

Cheers , It’s not bad but I think the Chinese model trumps it tonight

Edited January 30, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[StingJet]

3 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

I'm not sure how it's possible for it to be "always correct" when it varies so much from run to run. I'm not suggesting it's alone, but saying it must be wrong sometimes.

There was just a touch of sarcasm in my post ... Yes of course mate all models chop and change run to run, it has been noted though that when the ECM consistently delivers a certain "trend"  i.e. in this case the UK still dominated by a fairly mobile west - east flow of LP systems heading our way off the Atlantic with mild sectors alternating with post cold front "cold pools" , with no signs of northern / scandi blocking or beast'esque synoptics, then it does have an uncanny knack of verifying, again substantiated by the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

54 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I wish people would stop the “it’s for the bin” comments.

The ECM is a perfectly plausible outcome.

Its simply because its still not showing what most want...ie a raging Estly and -20 uppers with Thames streamers..well im quite happy with the numerous snowfalls that have occurred around here and up North so far this Winter! Yes its plausible,but its out on its own at present.. 

[phil nw.]

ECM slow to bring the cold south because of the uk low phasing further north.It does stand out on it's own at quite an early stage so uncertainty continues but perhaps not for too long as it 's around day 6 that this shows really.

Talking of day 6 a great gefs 

A pretty clean evolution of Atlantic ridging with the Scandi cold heading south across the UK.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The mean to my eye looks better overall and I feel its slowly coming into line with its very slow operational Brother.