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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

The models don't control the weather, they simply to try to show the most likely outcome.

No but when they show differing outcomes, one tends to move towards the other solution. or they meet somewhere in the middle, or somewhere else

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Mr snowman 2018 Contributor

Mr snowman 2018

Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen
Posted

ECM at 192 simply isn’t good enough for me unless you like marginal snow events like most of us have encountered this winter !

AE6F5BC8-C062-43EF-BFA6-28A2A9D9BB80.gif

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

This would be a real kick in the teeth, now where have i seen that chart before??  get this incredible feeling of deja vu, its called marginal slushfest 20-21 deja vu.

image.thumb.png.4a603256ebcb25a3196f1e4ad5c48827.png

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North East Blizzard Enthusiast

North East Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
Posted

I'd be more worried if we didn't have Mogreps (you'd imagine) GFS, GEFS (mostly), GEM, and it looks like the UKMO onboard. Of course the ECM could be right, but I'm betting against it currently. 

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Mr snowman 2018 said:

ECM at 192 simply isn’t good enough for me unless you like marginal snow events like most of us have encountered this winter !

AE6F5BC8-C062-43EF-BFA6-28A2A9D9BB80.gif

It's good I think - just different from the others.  Day 9 and 10 should build a solid high to the north / north west. 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

This would be a real kick in the teeth, now where have i seen that chart before??  get this incredible feeling of deja vu, its called marginal slushfest 20-21 deja vu.

image.thumb.png.4a603256ebcb25a3196f1e4ad5c48827.png

That was quite a leap to poor, wasn't it? Goes against forecast pressure anomalies etc

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

image.thumb.png.a82f57fe5de81d4fe9e5e0c25573401d.png

Any other charts resemble that... 

. Didn't think so. 

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Verification stats not withstanding, I don't think the ECM has performed all that well at 8,9 10 this winter.

Too much flip flopping and not picking trends as well as other models.

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Rapidly changes at 168 hours!!very good!wana see it earlier though!!ecm playin catch up with gfs?!!happened a few weeks ago?!

Wow!...the Jekyll and Hyde of the Mod thread  wait until the next 216z and then...

Wasn't the GEM showing something similar at D10 as per the 192h here?

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

image.thumb.png.d778760d35ae41e3a07943e64597b371.png  image.thumb.png.be642a19f7b375aabbabc7aac70ecae9.png

At least the Arctic High has behaved much better on this run - stayed connected.

ECM has a little disturbance develop on the eastern flank of the UK trough on day 5 and that then somehow heads north in the face of all that cold air and high pressure... I guess it must me technically possible, but it feels hard to believe.

image.thumb.png.eebc0baad9d21e3d5bdd5de257347085.pngimage.thumb.png.fd3986a4cb71e66c9a45345f000e00db.png 

Here's it's managing to set up yet another Atlantic versus polar air situation but this time it's modified Arctic continental - Arctic maritime.

While this has been the theme of the winter so far, giving so much power to such a small disturbance just east of the UK earlier on hasn't done wonders for the credibility feel of this run.

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Mr snowman 2018 Contributor

Mr snowman 2018

Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen
Posted
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

It's good I think - just different from the others.  Day 9 and 10 should build a solid high to the north / north west. 

Exactly day 9/10 we have been here before so many times this winter ! always in f.i

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM is messy, will probably recover in last two frames due to the position of the high and the amassed cold out east.  But it is a big move to the others from yesterday’s 12z, a lot more things go right earlier on.  And a mid way solution between the big 4 would probably deliver now...

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swilliam Enthusiast

swilliam

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This would be a real kick in the teeth, now where have i seen that chart before??  get this incredible feeling of deja vu, its called marginal slushfest 20-21 deja vu.

image.thumb.png.4a603256ebcb25a3196f1e4ad5c48827.png

 

Looks a bit like that it must be said

 

 

overview_20210130_12_198.jpg

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I wish people would stop the “it’s for the bin” comments.

The ECM is a perfectly plausible outcome.

Any model which doesn't show the desired outcome is for the bin.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

What's wrong with the ECM at 192!!!

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.42ea1c35bb38a1d72e2ece34e00af50e.gif

heights in place to the north/northwest with trough dropping SE and cold air coming in from the NE.

TOTALLY AGAINST THE OTHER MODELS THOUGH so should we bin it?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I wish people would stop the “it’s for the bin” comments.

The ECM is a perfectly plausible outcome.

Fact is - they are probably all wrong as early as 144 - this amount of model dischord is placing FI at around 48-72 hours at the moment.

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm happy with EC...

I think it gets better mid term...

That will end up in a west based NAO going by the 216h

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T120 all 3.  T144 all 3. It is between these times where it changes. Tomorrow morning will sort it out.

9C54E12B-E798-41C7-92B4-0B458D4663C3.png

3E269D5B-5B26-4CE5-9770-C88CAD15732C.png

2D0F46D9-7E9D-4D5D-B57D-7F6078A044FA.gif

FC481EC7-40BA-4949-A417-117CA501A365.png

FF4D3269-45CA-4EBC-88A8-C1B8B17A7B71.gif

13283FD5-2087-4A5C-A215-24F9C8BBB70A.png

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

No point sugar coating things, ECM is very underwhelming.  FI probably at 96 hours.

Isn't FI @ 96 hrs the case for all the models though?

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

ECM recovers but delayed by several days, by D10 it will be alright but it's D10 and when easterlies start getting delays the begin to loose the wheels.

Not looking forward to the 0z it must be said hopefully the ECM will be dragged kicking and screaming.

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