Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Decemberof2010]

While we are nervously watching the ECM from behind the sofa (well I'm behind the garden fence). 

P11 says you may need your big coat

[tight isobar]

Amplification alert ecm!!!

[Snowman.]

By this point yesterday the writing was on the wall.

Old

New

Just goes to show that even the mighty ECM can truly **** the bed. 

Current just looks like the 0z so far. Can't see the beauty of the GFS 12z yet.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Snowman.

[Lampostwatcher]

Get in

[Daniel*]

ECM continuing to frustrate doesn’t want to clear low to se 

[Tim Bland]

Any snow on Tues morn turns quickly to rain away from Scotland 

[Singularity]

Better relative positions of the Atlantic lows for phasing into an amplifying rather than flattening trough and better Arctic High evolution. It’s a two-fer... but will it blend (the way we’d like)?

Edited January 30, 2021 by Singularity

[eddie1]

So as a newbie is the ecm on board? 

[tight isobar]

Much better polar profile here...and dynamical elongation......ecm gathering pace...

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Any snow on Tues morn turns quickly to rain away from Scotland 

It could still correct a bit South between now and Tuesday 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Going out to all you Heavy Metal.fans out there..I sense a little Deep Purple incoming....

[Mike Poole]

All good T120:

The link up is there with the arctic high, but as last frame, the block a little weaker on ECM.

[Snowman.]

ECM 144.

Sends the low NE??!?!?1?

Edited January 30, 2021 by Snowman.

[cuckoo]

Better but need the limpet low to head SE

[Mark wheeler]

Ecm hasn’t moved much imo 

[KTtom]

ECM finest hour, or consigned to the gutter ?

[Battleground Snow]

Looks a bit like para, so will probably be good past 192.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

ECM 144.

Sends the low NE??!?!?1?

Yes, it is filling though, could put a delay on it...macro NH profile still good:

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

ECM is miles better tonight, than last night, that’s all that matters to me at the moment! 

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ecm hasn’t moved much imo 

It's better than this mornings at 144.

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Any snow on Tues morn turns quickly to rain away from Scotland 

8 degrees over here next Thursday.  Not good at all.

More flooding.

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

ECM 144.

Sends the low NE??!?!?1?

You would expect it to sink south next though perhaps it won’t get the memo this run and will just take a step toward the GFS? Expect - halfway house tomorrow

[TSNWK]

Look at all that cold it's all so primed at 144. And how did the low move north east between 120 and 144.

168 could be the first official boom situation.. or well I'm simply don't know.

[supernova]

44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ll probably jinx it but I can’t see the ECM failing to bring the cold in from the north east next weekend looking at these ensembles for London!... 

You're right Tim you'll probably jinx it!  ECM has precedent of dashing all our hopes and it's trying once again I fear.

Edited January 30, 2021 by supernova

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

You would expect it to sink south next though perhaps it won’t get the memo this run and will just take a step toward the GFS? Expect - halfway house tomorrow

Wouldnt surprise me if keeps riding NNE. May end up ruining the cold pool in europe too.