Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[nick sussex]

The ICON has a good looking block to the ne but that annoying shortwave limpets itself to Scotland for days . 

If that would just clear more quickly it would make a huge difference .

[carinthian]

Yes, very interesting spell of model watching . My daughter who lives in Stockholm currently reports -12c with deep snow cover in the city. In fact the Swedish Met Office have  issued a prolonged spell of frigid temps warning with temps down to -18c in the city. Of course its the increasing cold block over Scandinavia that is going to play its hand on battle zone (UK ). You would expect the models to eventually evolve to a full cold scenario with the battle zone to be forced more and more southwards in the coming week. Anyway, our team of experts will be back on Monday morning , so should get an update with their thoughts and readings from the snow computer which currently is providing some excellent  out parameter results for the UK.

C

[Wardlegacy]

6 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

You could be correct.

I wasn't sure when i posted the one i did.I am sure someone will turn it up using the archive link.

Yes and it was the UKMET that never went along with it. I’m sure the forum came to a conclusion at the time that if the ukmet model wasn’t on board then to be very wary.

[Battleground Snow]

Icon is painstakingly slow at bringing the cold 850mb temps in, but it gets there by 168... 

Look at the huge difference in the Arctic profile compared to the 00z runs. More drama ahead I think.

 

[Frosty.]

I haven’t posted for ages..well a week actually?.. but I’ve observed plenty of model / emotional swings for sure..and..my honest opinion..the latest models sofa today..well, I think a wintry spell is coming, for sure there’s been an upgrade since last nights pathetic ecm 12z op..hmmmmm!...anyway..I think winter is coming guys...and gals!

 

[nick sussex]

Is there an issue with the thread . Keep getting problems favouriting posts. Also get a message when posting saying need to wait 18 seconds to post and to re-submit the post .

[Griff]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Is there an issue with the thread . Keep getting problems favouriting posts. Also get a message when posting saying need to wait 18 seconds to post and to re-submit the post .

Yes, confirmed, same here

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Is there an issue with the thread . Keep getting problems favouriting posts. Also get a message when posting saying need to wait 18 seconds to post and to re-submit the post .

And when it tells me new posts are up the link doesn't bring up the new posts

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Is there an issue with the thread . Keep getting problems favouriting posts. Also get a message when posting saying need to wait 18 seconds to post and to re-submit the post .

It’s a special feature for you nick ....

[nick sussex]

Is there an issue with the thread . Keep getting problems favouriting posts. Also get a message when posting saying need to wait 18 seconds to post and to re-submit the post .

[Timmytour]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is there an issue with the thread . Keep getting problems favouriting posts. Also get a message when posting saying need to wait 18 seconds to post and to re-submit the post .

It may be the site is suffering from an underwhelming number of posters    :)

[Polar Maritime]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is there an issue with the thread . Keep getting problems favouriting posts. Also get a message when posting saying need to wait 18 seconds to post and to re-submit the post .

 There is a problem which will hopefully be rectified soon.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[sunnijim]

15 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

My recollection was that just after Christmas only the ECM was not promising us the winter nirvana that all the other models were predicting was on its way from T96.  Then all of a sudden it delivered the run of all runs to get itself firmly on board and provide model agreement across the board.  That lasted until the next GFS run which was poor and derided until all the other models took its lead!

A huge disappointment and some wrote off winter at that point, but we went on to enjoy some good snowy periods in the following month  and of course March 2013 proved to be a belter!

Now you have really jogged my memory.

I'm sure it was the GFS 18z that was the first to change away from the easterly..  Yes, the much derided 'pub run' was a trend setter.

It was laughed out the place for its impertinence..

It had the last laugh on that occasion if memory serves.

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon is painstakingly slow at bringing the cold 850mb temps in, but it gets there by 168... 

Look at the huge difference in the Arctic profile compared to the 00z runs. More drama ahead I think.

 

Seems gem like to me... 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I haven’t posted for ages..well a week actually?.. but I’ve observed plenty of model / emotional swings for sure..and..my honest opinion..the latest models sofa today..well, I think a wintry spell is coming, for sure there’s been an upgrade since last nights pathetic ecm 12z op..hmmmmm!...anyway..I think winter is coming guys...and gals!

 

A snowy spell's a'coming, it's coming round the bend; I ain't seen a snowfall, since... I don't know when. Today's GFS 12Z is gonna be it!

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Seems gem like to me... 

Good Spot, I can't decide whether that low in Greenland is going to be friend or foe yet

[phil nw.]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon is painstakingly slow at bringing the cold 850mb temps in, but it gets there by 168... 

Look at the huge difference in the Arctic profile compared to the 00z runs. More drama ahead I think.

 

Yes Tuesday's fax shows this complex area of low pressure to the west which takes an age to shift.

Stationary fronts over Scotland expected to give heavy snowfall in same areas up there,several hours by the looks too.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A snowy spell's a'coming, it's coming round the bend; I ain't seen a snowfall, since... I don't know when. Today's GFS 12Z is gonna be it!

Awesome Ed...I mean Pete..Johnny cash, legend..anyway..I’ve seen tons of support from the Ukmo, gem, Gfs, GEFS..ECM..Navgem...did I really say that..hmm?...anyway..enough of that tosh..this is our best opportunity sofa this winter for a noteworthy wintry spell...fingers crossed!  
 

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Good Spot, I can't decide whether that low in Greenland is going to be friend or foe yet

GEM at 240, new to me but I'd say this is a genuine Greenland block (if it's not perhaps someone can help explain rather than criticise? Ta), looks very cold for Europe, so assuming a similar outcome...? 

And because I know emoji's are loved here, I'll express myself using,

Followed by... 

It's a free world man, peace  

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO at 144, 

Cold air is desperately close, hoping the low over the UK will clear faster than this though.

I think it would head down the gem route later on though @Griff

Edited January 30, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Cold air is desperately close, hoping the low over the UK will clear faster than this though.

A phrase that is starting to grate...the block to cold continues in the foreseeable.

[JamesL]

Can anyone share the latest output for tomorrow re the potential snow in SW UK please 

Thank you 

 

 

[Griff]

Scotland's cold at day 10 starts at day 5 according to this, and yes the Isles of Scilly are missing out, as is MBY at this time frame. However it would appear in a general model related sense that there are cold 850s heading towards the UK. 

[Weathizard]

Nice alignment from the GFS

[Tim Bland]

Cold air and snow flurries into the east by Friday ..