Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[KTtom]

Would love to know the wind chill from this!

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

For the south east I’m completely underwhelmed.. 850s objectively indicate an outcome to expect regardless of the eye candy Synoptics the below is what we get and actually they are warming up from the south east.

 

Yes, we could do with the trough a few hundred miles further towards Northern Italy than Iberia to avoid any warmer uppers coming from the SE.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Radiating Dendrite

[snowblizzard]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

A peach of a chart. 

Yes, for Scotland.

But for South UK air originates from Med? 

[Man With Beard]

My twopenneth - I would hesitate trying to read too much into the evolution post D5. I'd noticed over the past few days that, even though the GEFS mean has been fairly consistent in getting to the start of the cold snap (and that's good), when you look at individual ensembles the honest truth is that allsorts is going on. I don't think I've ever seen such charts in early February - the NH in our part of the world is synoptically more like summer.

One thing that generally holds true - if you see a chart that looks like nothing you've seen before, more often than not it's the model that's struggling.

[saintkip]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

For the south east I’m completely underwhelmed.. 850s objectively indicate an outcome to expect regardless of the eye candy Synoptics the below is what we get and actually they are warming up from the south east.

 

Yep it’s all too close for comfort for the south, pretty much what’s happened all month 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, we could do with the trough a few hundred miles further towards Northern Italy then Iberia.

Agreed.. I mused a couple days back the concern of bring in med sourced air via the back door as it loops around the trough to our south.. which has been another theme this winter the inability for troughs to move through to our south..

say it quietly but we might missing the jet a tad this winter to shove it along...

[Alexis]

The low at 144h has moved north. Wouldn't be surprised to see it trend south again.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Yes, for Scotland.

But for South UK air originates from Med? 

miles in FI anyway, but miles better than the 00Z, Kent has the wet fart on this, means nothing deep FI

[snowblizzard]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

For the south east I’m completely underwhelmed.. 850s objectively indicate an outcome to expect regardless of the eye candy Synoptics the below is what we get and actually they are warming up from the south east.

 

Yep, I think we have been jinxed this winter! 

[Nick F]

Blimey, that limpet low over Ireland/western UK from Tuesday-Friday takes an age to finally clear SE, this is all that's holding back the floodgates to prevent deep cold flooding out of NE Europe towards us.

Trouble is, the loitering low close to the west through next week becomes removed from the jet stream which sinks away south into France and Germany, so there is little impetus for it to move. But the models do struggle with low movements when they are away form the jet and upper flow is weak.

Anyway, the NEly arrives in the end next weekend on 06z GFS, but it's the north that benefits from deep cold, hopefully corrections south for deep cold to benefit us all, IF this is the route we will take of course. Need all models on board to get the Ely or NEly going in the first place. This will all depend on how the low to the west moves and also how blocking develops to our north. Ideally we need arctic high and ridge from Atlantic flow amplification combining. But models always struggle with northern blocking, so more twists and turns to come.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Nick F

[SqueakheartLW]

Time for me to catch up on the evolution in the models since my last update yesterday

GFS 18z and 00z

First here's the latest average charts for the peak of the predicted cold spell at 192 hours away

At this stage we are still seeing an average easterly flow over the UK so at least still on track for this possible outcome. The 850hpa average of the 18z came in at a cold -8.9 which is even colder than the 12z showed which was -8.5 so a further upgrade to the colder spell on average again which is -6.8 colder than the long term mean. This cold anomaly shows up well on the anomaly chart on the right with those deep blues over the UK.

Mildest GFS 18z Member 16 at 192 hours away

Coldest GFS 18z Member 2 at 192 hours away

How does this compare with the latest 00z GFS runs which is based on 192 hours away also

At this stage we still see an average easterly flow over the UK and the consistency for this from the GFS is quite promising for a colder spell late next week. The 850hpa average on the 00z is -8.8 which is a tiny bit warmer than the 18z was by just 0.1 but in the grand scheme of things that probably won't make much difference. It is still however a decent -6.7 colder than the long term mean. The anomaly chart maintains those deep blues over the UK too.

Mildest GFS 00z Member 7 at 192 hours away

Coldest GFS 00z Member 15 at 192 hours away

GEM

Time to compare today's 00z GEM to what was showing on yesterday's 12z

The peak of the colder spell on GEM 00z is at 156 hours away with an average 850hpa temperature of -6.6 which is -5.5 below the long term mean. Not as keen for deep cold as GFS nor for as long either which looks less promising. This compares with the average of -7.8 from the 12z so a backtrack of 1.2 towards less cold on the 00z runs

Mildest GEM 00z Member 7 at 156 hours away

Coldest GEM 00z Member 15 at 156 hours away

GFS Extended

Lets see how today's GFS Extended compares with yesterday's GFS Extended runs

At 222 hours away we reach the peak of the colder spell on GFS Extended. As with GFS we have an average easterly showing up so this keeps GFS Extended firmly on track for the colder outcome. The average 850hpa temperature on today's extended run is -7.8 which is -5.3 below the long term mean. This compares with -6.6 on yesterday's extended runs so a nice upgrade to the colder spell by an average -1.2.

Mildest GFS Extended Member 30 at 222 hours away

Coldest GFS Extended Member 23 at 222 hours away

4 doom and gloom dreaded mildest charts from the GFS Extended

4th   Member 19   +486 hours     850hpa temp 9.8

3rd   Member 30   +648 hours     850hpa temp 10.2

2nd   Member 1     +354 hours     850hpa temp 10.3

1st     Member 1     +300 hours     850hpa temp 10.8

4 fantasy coldest charts from GFS Extended

4th     Member 3       +822 hours    850hpa temp -13.7

3rd     Member 7       +264 hours    850hpa temp -14.2

2nd    Member 23     +222 hours    850hpa temp -14.3

1st     Member 12     +798 hours     850hpa temp -16.7

 

[TSNWK]

Yippee! And hooray it gets there for us all around day 10.. 

What would be nice when the spaghettini plots come out is some lines taking a dip before the op..indicating that there might be scope for the trough to scoot of east to our south quicker.. if not then I guess it’s another day 10 chase..

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by TSNWK

[Tim Bland]

A lot of snow for the east on the 06z GFs for next weekend. If the GFSp and GEFS agree I’ll not be too worried by the ECM ...

[snowblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Blimely, that limpet low over Ireland/western UK from Tuesday-Friday takes an age to finally clear SE, this is all that's holding back the floodgates to prevent deep cold flooding out of NE Europe towards us.

 

Stuck in an eddy?

[Griff]

Oh no, models are terrible this morning, will it snow in 10 days over my auntie's lighthouse?

We are a right bunch aren't we! 

[Doctor96]

Watching the gfs this morning , surely this is great for most of the east of the uk , but many on here seem down this morning , don’t get it , unless you live in the west . Also the south east gets hit hard with snow from the front coming up from south east .

[Badgers01]

Good to see the outlook is cold at 10 days again !

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, Badgers01 said:

Good to see the outlook is cold at 10 days again !

Yes if that goes we can really worry if at least that is consistent.

[O'Maille80]

Solid gfs 06z and very similar to a lot of the 00z gef ensembles.

[Methuselah]

I'm getting a touch of the Day Tens already: deep cold (and an incoming trough, over the North Sea!) What could possibly go right?

    

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A lot of snow for the east on the 06z GFs for next weekend. If the GFSp and GEFS agree I’ll not be too worried by the ECM ...

gives me nothing, but for fun at this range, on that chart though, unlikely just the east that sees snaw

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A lot of snow for the east on the 06z GFs for next weekend. If the GFSp and GEFS agree I’ll not be too worried by the ECM ...

The strong easterly at that timescale has been a consistent feature of NOAA output for the past few days - where the battleground sets up unknown but I’m taken by the consistency when compared to other op output days 7/10 

[Mark wheeler]

Bringing out another big gun . CMA is nice this morning . It stays cold as well .

Edited January 30, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A lot of snow for the east on the 06z GFs for next weekend. If the GFSp and GEFS agree I’ll not be too worried by the ECM ...

I’ve been waiting for cold easterly I just hope us down in south east is white not wet..

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Watching the gfs this morning , surely this is great for most of the east of the uk , but many on here seem down this morning , don’t get it , unless you live in the west . Also the south east gets hit hard with snow from the front coming up from south east .

Well I live in the NW and am very happy with this run penetrating overnight frost temperatures by day struggling to just above freezing no point discussing snow prospect but from my pov very pleased the way we are heading i personally think the ECM will be on board by tomorrow evening 

C.S