Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Ultima Thule]

The GEM is a stonking run. BANK.

[SLEETY]

Gfs spewing out garbage now lol, reality will look completely different, good run beforehand though, not far off a mega snowstorm earlier timeframe, at least it's consistent unlike the crud ECM  served up last night 

[Battleground Snow]

GFS mean and control at 168 is awesome.

I'd be shocked if the ECM is poor again at 168 when the GFS mean is showing that.

The para at 156 isn't too shabby either.

Great runs this morning up to 144

[Daniel*]

GFSp very good this morning, nice and smooth quick evolution to getting deep cold air in.

[Matt H]

The GEFS 00z ensemble mean is virtually rock solid out to t180 so far. Looks brilliant!

[Daniel*]

Definitely would call it a good start to morning no dramas, UKMO and GFS not particularly exciting but it’s definitely no ECM 12z the Canadian model is the pick of the lot, it’s very much holding the torch to earlier hopes of something special the GFSp also very good while not as snowy. Over to ECM.....

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Definitely would call it a good start to morning no dramas, UKMO and GFS not particularly exciting but it’s definitely no ECM 12z the Canadian model is the pick of the lot, it’s very much holding the torch to earlier hopes of something special the GFSp also very good while not as snowy. Over to ECM.....

Good summary, although I think there would be plenty of snow for the east on the para.

Mean looking great in graph form, heading for -9 now, you can see the milder members starting to disappear, and if you look closely you can see the op was a day later bringing in the deep cold compared to the mean

[Kentspur]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Good summary, although I think there would be plenty of snow for the east on the para.

Mean looking great in graph form, heading for -9 now, you can see the milder members starting to disappear, and if you look closely you can see the op was a day later bringing in the deep cold compared to the mean

Same in the SE too very few mild uppers hopefully a nationwide freeze, uppers down to -7.2c mean and -9c op run with decent support!

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Same in the SE too very few mild uppers hopefully a nationwide freeze, uppers down to -7.2c mean and -9c op run with decent support!

Make that an op run a degree colder!-10c! Now come on ECM!!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Kentspur

[Ali1977]

The Op ends the really cold easterly after about 4 days, but many of the ENS and control don't..

Day 10 Control 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Ali1977

[londonblizzard]

Good signs, but really hoping to push this mean down over the coming few days! First week of January had -7 uppers and an east wind in the south east, and it was cloudy with drizzle!

[Rayth]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The Op ends the really cold easterly after about 4 days, but many of the ENS and control don't..

Day 10 Control 

A shift in ensemble suite 12z -00z

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

I'm looking forward to seeing @feb1991blizzard reaction to this clustering in the extended.

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Daniel*]

These GFS ens are impressive even for London the mild runs have gone up in smoke. 

[londonblizzard]

After being the most outrageously mild ensemble member the entire way through, number 7 takes a 22°C dive to -15 over 2 days on the 11 feb 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by londonblizzard

[Battleground Snow]

ECM looking much better at 120. Next frame is going to be pivotal, let's hope it doesn't misfire again.

 

[Daniel*]

Yes very visible improved blocking to north and continuous across Arctic.

[Ali1977]

Big freeze starting next Friday possibly, and before then plenty of snow chances. Southern Scotland has 3 days solid Tue to Fri with 2 foot forecast on the pentlands - again. 

 

The pentlands had an avalanche last week

Edited January 30, 2021 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

ECM 168... Much improved if not as good as the gem and GFS yet.

Have we moved past the one usual wobble before a cold spell starts? I'd give it another 24 hours before we can be sure.

 

[Daniel*]

ECM adamant to dither and delay! Not living up to the shocker of the 12z though.

[KTtom]

My gout is less painful than watching the ECM!

[That ECM]

T168. Both. Still much to be agreed on.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

My gout is less painful than watching the ECM!

Yep frustrating it’s much improved upstream though.

[That ECM]

T192. So fi starts at T120-T144. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Really poor levels of consistency even at around 5/6 days out. The fact that the ECM/UKMO are similar is probably more a fluke than anything else because neither is similar to previous runs, which were miles apart from each other previously.

It does feels like a case of riding this uncertainty out and not placing any bets on any kind of solution at the moment.

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Captain Shortwave