Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Drifter]

JMA garbage as well. 
Looks like we’ve been had again eh?*
 

 

 

*I acknowledge it can change back again.

 

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

ECM should serve to remind people that nothing is nailed on. It may well be wrong, but is a possibility.

 

 

Or we could just bin the model entirely? 

Sorry but can't see ECM being right here..especially in FI

[Paul]

Commenting on the model output is fine in here, but moaning about other people commenting on the models isn't, nor are ott emotional reactions that don't contain any model discussion. So please take a moment to check what you've written and whether it's on topic before hitting the submit button.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm amounts to a kick in the nuts. No doubt about that. However, serious question. What happens to that low over southern Ireland between 144hr and 168hr? It just vanishes. 

Without seeing the Inbetween period I think it goes west into Iberia which doesn't seem plausible, but we will find out soon enough

[on the coast]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The difference between the earlier run and this evenings from the ECM is remarkable .

It also embarks on some bizarre synoptics and evolutions . A frenzy of shortwaves littered all over the place .

I’m placing this in both my SSO (Suspicious Synoptic Outcome ) and my SG ( Synoptic Garbage ) categories and moving on .

 

The GFS 18 has sometimes got a grip on things in a general way I find. Great watching this.

[mountain shadow]

Maybe it has picked up the MJO phase 7 which is amplifying in the Atlantic at exactly the wrong time.

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

People that didn’t like the look of UKMO you’re looking rather silly lol! Don’t get too greedy is my advice. I’m quite confident this run will be an outlier but not what we really want to see from top model.

 

Beyond 120 or144 none of the publicly available stuff is a top model

[winterof79]

D10 looks primed 

[blizzard81]

Am I right in saying though that this morning's ECM op was a cold outlier for the UK?

[sheikhy]

Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

[DEYS(Kent)]

Would you Adam and Eve it. ECM shocker..

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Maybe it has picked up the MJO phase 7 which is amplifying in the Atlantic at exactly the wrong time.

That really wouldn't surprise me lol. Law of sod. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Maybe it has picked up the MJO phase 7 which is amplifying in the Atlantic at exactly the wrong time.

This looks like a battle of competing signals which might be causing this large swing in the output .

At least the day ten had potential ! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

Way north, clearly see we are in Atlantic air, but with meto warnings, could there be trend south, hopefully

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

It is...for about 20 mins before it turns back to rain  

chin up guys..Day 10 has potential...I’ll get me coat

In all seriousness I’d bet my house it’s a mild outlier. It’s just one run ...

[TSNWK]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Wheres tim bland?!!is the snow still there for tuesday?!!gota scrape out watever we can from that ecm run!!

Nope that went also... Not a good run at all for Leicester

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Without seeing the Inbetween period I think it goes west into Iberia which doesn't seem plausible, but we will find out soon enough

Yes hence I posted only the ECM could send the energy due south

[Paul]

Now seems a good time for a fresh thread: