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Model output discussion 24/01/21


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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    ECM looks odd, something isn't correct IMO. Data/rendering issues? or is it just me?

    Completely different to the 00z !

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    Bit harsh Tamara...I thought it was a constructive response by Chino to your reply

    Some great charts this morning (if cold is your thing), and some great posts over the last 24 hours or so as well. But, I have to laugh that already some are worrying about the end of a potential cold

    Genuinely amazed that posters can have any moans about the current output (apart from someone with a squirrel in the sw) Even if it goes awry, it’s still brilliant model watching and half the rea

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Someone needs to stop thiz horror show of an ecm and press pause!!it just gets worse at 192 hours!!!and yeh it might look better at day 10 but please lets stop this day 10 malarkey its getting boring!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The movement of the PV is quite different here . Now the ECM looks like it’s bored of an easterly and has decided it likes Greenland more . As long as that wave upstream amplifies at day 9 we might be able to salvage something from the wreckage !

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Could well be reaching for my t-shirt and shorts if the ECM is anything to go by, brings in a spring like south westerly towards the end of the run. Be interesting to see where it sits in the suite of runs.

    Edited by jayb1989
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    I would be amazed if that was to be the case. It was 14 degrees here yesterday and 12 today so it would be mean a significant drop in temps if that was to be the case. I only see rain for us down here for the time being, may get lucky around the 5-7th Feb but that’s a million miles off meteorologically so could all be different again by then... 

    Are you in the south West near Plymouth 🤔 if so..yes, you’re right.. yes no chance 🤣 These are for London, snow boundary looks about 50 miles north of London but the ensembles suggesting this could easily come south a bit...but not as far as Plymouth I’m afraid ..

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    This ecm run churned COULD be the decider for the rest of winter!!COULD be a big moment this and not in a good way!seen heartbreaking moments like this over the years!!!over to the 00z!!!

    Most probably won’t be thou 

    The ensembles clearly show a variety of options this is simply one of them 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The movement of the OV is quite different here . Now the ECM looks like it’s bored if an easterly and has decided it likes Greenland more . As long as that wave upstream amplifies at day 9 we might be able to salvage something from the wreckage !

    Without bias: the ecm is almost certainly having a mental breakdown..it falls apart at the seems from a great early start point creates energys...then spits them out very next frame...wrong wrong [email protected]ecm

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    What a pig's ear!

    image.thumb.png.49100e9f020bccaf70b397faec92d21a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Look at the shape of the ecm Arctic high compared to the gfs:

    ECH1-144.thumb.gif.8c7f48bc76cf107574d634f8d71e407c.gif966106594_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.f66d23cccfe14371d7f7f523826e7c88.png

    That is a fundamental change to the flow to our north and will rebound in the Atlantic with a net loss of forcing from the NE. Allowing the Atlantic a free reign. That ecm Arctic high setup is the death knell to the upcoming cold spell!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC is for the bin tonight.

    Progression between 120-144 looks highly improbable. Its all way to loose. Il'l be fascinated to see where it sits in the means and ensembles later.

    120

    spacer.png

    144

    spacer.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    Just now, IDO said:

    Look at the shape of the ecm Arctic high compared to the gfs:

    ECH1-144.thumb.gif.8c7f48bc76cf107574d634f8d71e407c.gif966106594_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.f66d23cccfe14371d7f7f523826e7c88.png

    That is a fundamental change to the flow to our north and will rebound in the Atlantic with a net loss of forcing from the NE. Allowing the Atlantic a free reign. That ecm Arctic high setup is the death knell to the upcoming cold spell!

    Possibly

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Even by ECM standard 'wobbles' this is a massive one...it's all over the shop, it makes yesterdays 12z seem like a small tremble. 😁

    More runs needed...chortle.

     

     

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    More runs needed lol. Either ECM is worth its weight in gold, or needs placing in the bin. 

    As for 2012 memories, it was the GFS that called the phantom first. We’ll soon see if a reversal happens or not! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    1 minute ago, Notty said:

    Possibly

    I meant only for the easterly, something else could pop out from a different synoptic for the rest of Feb! It was not a winter is over post by far! And ecm may be wrong, a regular event of late!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

    Is it just me or has this winter ECM just been rubbish? The constant flopping around when we thought we had agreement, then it goes off to spoil the party all to be flopped back again on the next run.. Something has to be going on.. How can GFS be relatively stable (considering) minor up/downgrades and ECM just does a whole pattern change?

    HAS TO BE A MILD OUTLIER.. A MASSIVE ONE at the end of the ensembles. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Ecm amounts to a kick in the nuts. No doubt about that. However, serious question. What happens to that low over southern Ireland between 144hr and 168hr? It just vanishes. 

    ECH1-144.gif

    ECH1-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    ECM should serve to remind people that nothing is nailed on. It may well be wrong, but is a possibility.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

    It's not worth advising anyone on predictions past (a)t furthest 120hrs - less if it's an easterly that's forecast. 

    A major change from the ECM but how many times over the years have we seen that happen with easterlies? Far too early to say what will happen yet. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    People that didn’t like the look of UKMO you’re looking rather silly lol! Don’t get too greedy is my advice. I’m quite confident this run will be an outlier but not what we really want to see from top model.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
    Just now, Updated_Weather said:

    Is it just me or has this winter ECM just been rubbish? The constant flopping around when we thought we had agreement, then it goes off to spoil the party all to be flopped back again on the next run.. Something has to be going on.. How can GFS be relatively stable (considering) minor up/downgrades and ECM just does a whole pattern change?

    HAS TO BE A MILD OUTLIER.. A MASSIVE ONE at the end of the ensembles. 

    The ECM has been rubbish this winter outside 5 days. Delighted with the last few days output and expect ECM to come back in line by Sunday.

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