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Model output discussion 24/01/21


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Something must change? as it's full agreement about the Atlantic winning on Tuesday, and Wed, meto issued early snow warnings? these look mild in south

ECM1-96.GIF?29-0ECM1-120.GIF?29-0

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hmm 144 not sure what to make of it!!

Poor. Compared to recent runs. 

It dosent look right tho.. The whole pattern across the northern hemipshere moves east aprt from that low. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

ECM looks odd, something isn't correct IMO. Data/rendering issues? or is it just me?

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Something must change? as it's full agreement about the Atlantic winning on Tuesday, and Wed, meto issued early snow warnings? these look mild in south

ECM1-96.GIF?29-0ECM1-120.GIF?29-0

Just to say these lows coming in in the next few days have tracked further and further south. Maybe that's what's will happen to Tues low?.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Oh dear, no point in dressing this up! - this isn't premier in, this is like eating carp, but carp off the pavement rather than out the canal.

image.thumb.png.8910920fbb2ef490a4368893b1a617bb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

Not quite sure whether the ECM's been drinking Special Brew or Iron Brew out to 168 (I suspect the former) so waiting rather impatiently for the rest of the run but in the meantime have ordered up the chef's special, GFS Perb Number 2, which would presumably come with special dried ice and some frozen (chunky?) nips! 

 

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Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

underwelmed! - but it just looks odd again like it did last night - its just flabby, like it's put its arms in the air and said I'm not used to this - where is my Jetstream and vortex to drive the ouput.

image.thumb.png.48370ccbb2d56b628aa42668ff0fcf94.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

OMG only that ECM could send the energy the wrong direction and scupper the easterly 

image.thumb.png.940605eacd5be7adbc263d51ea70ae17.png

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Ok calm down all , Time to reel out the big Guns . 
 

Navgem is certainly better than the Ecm this evening, not perfect but better .

3B513199-B0C2-4B21-B498-B43B97A5E837.png

A3AEB82C-3D22-4C3B-B3D0-3C7692B56151.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

If that doesn't go against the de bilt encembles I'm a Dutch man

image.thumb.png.b342ee7053732d6fec26fb14c257da41.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ec wobbly..the 850 vents alone suggest it's likely gone missing in itself..as a 600 mile area is in no man's land @ground level and overheads...images to follow!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Re ensembles...wouldn’t usually look at them for close range but this caught my eye for snow tomorrow at midday in the south...

AFE8097A-DAFB-4DC0-A68B-8067F8D18CB8.jpeg

I would be amazed if that was to be the case. It was 14 degrees here yesterday and 12 today so it would be mean a significant drop in temps if that was to be the case. I only see rain for us down here for the time being, may get lucky around the 5-7th Feb but that’s a million miles off meteorologically so could all be different again by then... 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Ukmo has front of Ireland going SE at 120hrs, ECM has it moving east.Needs to follow ukmo    FI could be120hrs no panic yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well. More or less in line with GEM and UKMO. What a shame.

It's nothing like the Ukmo,

Who do we back at 120 ukmo or ECM?

I'll be eagerly tapping refresh around 730 for an update on the EPS from @mulzy @Daniel* and @bluearmy

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Oh dear, high sinking south east, uppers 10 degrees warmer than this mornings 216... What is the new signal here, that was also starting to mainfest on GFS.

 

 

 

image.thumb.png.467de5e7582eba6434255e8cf1bd74bf.png

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM looks odd, something isn't correct IMO. Data/rendering issues? or is it just me?

Completely different to the 00z !

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