Model output discussion 24/01/21

[MJB]

Wintry next weekend 

[Notty]

GFS 06z is looking promising for snow for many tomorrow:

[MJB]

We could well be looking North after this 

[Griff]

Just now, Notty said:

GFS 06z is looking promising for snow for many tomorrow:

Yes it's consistently more amplified than GFS op in the short term 

[The Northern Ramper]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Big 12zs coming up!!for ecm and icon to be right on tuesdays snowfall we need gfs to move towards them on the 12z simple as!!

It’s really not as simple as that.

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, seaside 60 said:

Morning,

the Dutch news mentioned that the whole of Feb would be very cold with their national pastime of skating being back as its not been done for many years.
It that something that your local weather company has suggested, ie this cold wont be a blip and gone.

Hi seaside 60, nothing on the news over here. The weather has been on the mild side in Austria for much of the winter so far with quite a lot of rain  and even this morning rainy at 1400m. The coldest synoptics have been in Scotland and now getting entrenched over Scandinavia and of course the team over are getting excited at the prospects of some real cold to develop but may favour more Northern Europe including Holland and the British Isles.

C

[seaside 60]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Was this in the Daily Dutch, journalist James Von Madden?

No it was on Radio 538 music station so no agenda that I can see.

[MJB]

Looking good IMO 

[ICE COLD]

T234 lovely block . Some more colder 850s incoming. 

[nick sussex]

Ideally you want the shortwave in Norway to be drawn to the low heights over northern Italy .

That way you get another surge of deeper cold sw .

[stratty]

8 minutes ago, Notty said:

GFS 06z is looking promising for snow for many tomorrow:

Whereas the MO have reduced the area this morning: 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[ICE COLD]

Here they come

[Premiere Neige]

58 minutes ago, The Bevmeister said:

My guess would be because this is the model output discussion thread

That it is, but I thought it was widely known that forecast uppers for a future cold spell are usually under estimated at this range...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

06z is much better for longevity of cold compared to 00z.  Also the warmth around the Med is held further south.   Better run imo

 

perfection....bitterly cold until March  if we get to here

BFTP

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MJB]

Very different from the 0z , just shows what the set up is like at the moment , lets get to Wednesday and we might have a bit more confidence 

[ICE COLD]

Bloody Marvelous

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, stratty said:

Whereas the MO have reduced the area this morning: 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

... and new warnings for snow and ice for a large part of the UK for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Very different from the 0z , just shows what the set up is like at the moment , lets get to Wednesday and we might have a bit more confidence 

This seems more plausible to me as it's in line with the mean which moves the heights towards Greenland.

It's important we keep low heights in the med to sustain the cold spell as BA has pointed out

Edited January 29, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[MJB]

That is an absolute belter 

[Griff]

Yes worth the wait and met warnings for next week popping up now

[ICE COLD]

Are we gonna start another debate as to whether this is classed as a Greenland high

stunning run 

[ICE COLD]

Seen enough of the 6z to be happy . See ya for the 12z

[sebastiaan1973]

21 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Morning,

the Dutch news mentioned that the whole of Feb would be very cold with their national pastime of skating being back as its not been done for many years.
It that something that your local weather company has suggested, ie this cold wont be a blip and gone.

It was based at EC46. Story probably by Reinout vd Born.

30-Daagse: februari wordt een wintermaand - Weer.nl

WWW.WEER.NL

---

Hoewel de winter tot nu heeft laten zien, is er nog tijd. Februari wil in dat gat springen en lijkt volgens de nieuwe 30-daagse een wintermaand te worden.

 

[Matt H]

Blimey, the GFS 06z is an absolute stonker!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Blimey, the GFS 06z is an absolute stonker!

It took the scenic route but got there in the end