Model output discussion 24/01/21

[sunnijim]

Sorry folks.

Have probably cursed it all.

Have told the Wife and 16 month old to rearrange the words East.Beast From.

I never learn...everyone excited.

Now I will have to explain what has gone wrong in a weeks time.

Or perhaps , just perhaps.....

[johnholmes]

Friday 29 January

Looking at the ECMWF outputs first

a)the first from 4-8 inc, shows marked 500 mb trough se from Scandinavia tending to ‘warm’ out/less troughy by the end. It brings the -5 C 850 mb temperature over most of the country by 6 th

b) the 10 day set of charts from today (Fri 29) with the +ve 850 mb values ebbing and flowing for a few days with just the n’ern part of Scotland staying ‘cold’. Then by Thur 4 th Feb the colder 850’s covering all the uk and the -5 and below extending into all but the far south. By next w/e and the -10 is covering much of the country. Brought about by an upper high cell combining with a trough to its east . Of course neither of these charts shows any ppn detail. Various different models can be accessed using this link.

These are ECMWF 500 and surface charts on this link

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

and another link into ECMWF charts

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

To the anomaly outputs

Ec-gfs and both keep a similar chart to 24 hours ago, some ridging ne of Iceland and a degree of troughing in the uk area and Europe.

Noaa 6-10 and its chart is much as its 24 hour ago showed with a degree of ridging ne of Iceland and troughing into Europe, or at least the far west (Iberia), much as ec-gfs show. Its 8-14 is similar. On both the main upper features are the trough-ridge-trough from Russia into the middle of n America, along with the marked closed upper north of Greenland. The contour lines are higher in value than for a few days, largely due to he marked troughing over n America perhaps?

The upshot is that temperature levels away from the n’ern half of Scotland will vary for several days then pretty much the whole uk looks set to become colder with air sourced from the Scandinavia area holding sway for the latter part of the anomaly time scales. Ppn, ah, the synoptic models will be your guide-perhaps!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[MJB]

Northern most extent for tomorrow ( GFS 6z ) 

[MJB]

And for Sunday 

[Notty]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

And for Sunday 

GFS 06z // is a bit more progressive with the front on Saturday too:

Edited January 29, 2021 by Notty
Corrected

[Tim Bland]

Icon for Tuesday!! Shakey !!! will explode  

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon for Tuesday!! Shakey !!! will explode  

Unfortunately gfs is disgusting for tuesday!!not even a hint of snow!!!!until gfs comes on board that snow on ecm and icon for tuesday is dead for me!!!but if it did come off

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Unfortunately gfs is disgusting for tuesday!!not even a hint of snow!!!!until gfs comes on board that snow on ecm and icon for tuesday is dead for me!!!but if it did come off

And if its like the the previous two fronts coming in, it will probably end up in France anyway!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM at 120,

It shows multiple snow events over the next few days too.

 

The most depressing chart of the day, that snow depth one! What is it with the M4 South 

[Notty]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon for Tuesday!! Shakey !!! will explode  

and at 5 days

[Battleground Snow]

Looking good so far on the 06z run, would like the areas marked to clear south east quicker though.

 

[Griff]

GFS 6z taking a marginally slower route than 00z, but presumably a couple of hours difference 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Looking good so far on the 06z run, would like the areas marked to clear south east quicker though.

 

Yes not as clean an evolution, probably turn out better to make us look daft. 

[sheikhy]

Big 12zs coming up!!for ecm and icon to be right on tuesdays snowfall we need gfs to move towards them on the 12z simple as!!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Yes not as clean an evolution, probably turn out better to make us look daft. 

Scotland is going to get some deep cold on this particular run, will still be very cold elsewhere too, just need the Iberian low to move east and we are all good

[Griff]

Making me think of 00z gem from earlier 

[seaside 60]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Some exciting winter charts this morning. The one below from ECM would normally come with a health warning ! As yet UKMO not saying anything ! but their model at 144t looks to be heading for a Scandinavian High similar to ECM . Saturdays frontal activity seems to have been forced further south and Tues/ Wed becoming more of a widespread threat for central parts. Will get an update from the team later this morning with their view on the latest snow computer run. 

Enjoy the charts .

C

Morning,

the Dutch news mentioned that the whole of Feb would be very cold with their national pastime of skating being back as its not been done for many years.
It that something that your local weather company has suggested, ie this cold wont be a blip and gone.

[Chesil View]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon for Tuesday!! Shakey !!! will explode  

And still no snow in Dorset.

[tight isobar]

First  plebiscite @6z carries on the same vain @winter incoming proper...and the strat 10hp a illustrated the w2nd warming taking place overhead as we speak!!!..catastrophic for the already limp vortex!!...wave punching at its best here...and the alignments couldn't really be any better...@walking into the freezer!!!     Images to follow.

Edited January 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[stratty]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

First  plebiscite @6z carrots on the same vain @winter incoming proper...and the strat 10hp a illustrated the w2nd warming taking place overhead as we speak!!!..catastrophic for the already limp vortex!!...wave punching at its best here...and the alignments couldn't really be any better...@walking into the freezer!!!     Images to follow.

No images necessary  - makes perfect sense!  

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And still no snow in Dorset.

Here you are

[ICE COLD]

Lovely jubbly on the 6z . I feel like a nervous wreck

[Notty]

Just now, Notty said:

Here you are

and a bit more

Here's hoping

[Griff]

Feels more like a block on this run... 

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Morning,

the Dutch news mentioned that the whole of Feb would be very cold with their national pastime of skating being back as its not been done for many years.
It that something that your local weather company has suggested, ie this cold wont be a blip and gone.

Was this in the Daily Dutch, journalist James Von Madden?