Model output discussion 24/01/21

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A much better ECM this morning with cold air successfully moving westwards into the U.K. 850s of -13 across the East by day 10, but the cold air arrives in places by day 6 as heights build over the top of the deep cold over Scandinavia.

You could even go further as the surface cold never leaves the north of the UK through the entire run more or less.

It does briefly move into the south but even there the surface flow soon cools down again after 36hrs or so.

Very cold run overall, and I'm near certain you'd get plenty of streamers forming in such a flow as seen on the ECM.

[Lord Grogon]

50 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM at 120,

It shows multiple snow events over the next few days too.

 

If there’s ever a chart that screams painful Netweather cliche, this is it....

Edited January 29, 2021 by Lord Grogon

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

00z runs!!!!ecm is snow galore from saturday onwards!!midlands get buried!!

you’re interpretation of buried isn’t mine !

max I can see of lying snow by Tuesday am (which is it’s max depth) is 3” away from Peak District 

anyway, with the wedges meandering and affecting the jet axis so much it’s pointless trying to pin the snow tail on the donkey .... let’s see how this begins to settle down over the weekend .... more twists and turns to come but I agree that certain parts of the U.K. will have a pretty snowy spell of the transition to the deeper cold (assuming it comes in) 

[sebastiaan1973]

What a beauty.

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Great runs, but I am concerned that gfs and para want to bring it all to an end quite quickly? 

That's a valid point, all high risk, but at this range who knows? 

In any case... 

[sebastiaan1973]

Lot's of snow moving across the Northsea. Please notice the big area of snow in Central Europe.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

So looks like from next Sat a number of models seem to be converging on the idea of a scandi high bringing in colder uppers we haven’t seen since the beast from the east! 
 

Just need to count this down to +96hrs to be certain!

Edited January 29, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Great runs, but I am concerned that gfs and para want to bring it all to an end quite quickly? 

Yes, there is a possibility when the wedge(s) are taken by the ebb and flow they may go towards Greenland and we get more of a west based flow. That has been a common theme from the gfsP but may simply be the gfs westerly bias.

I would not worry about that ATM, with the caveat that this upcoming pattern is from wedges not a Rossby Wave injection of significant WAA into the high-latitude, so we should expect a limited time cold spell rather than a locked-in blocked pattern. That is assuming that other variables like the MJO and strat warming do not come into play in the interim, and their effect, positive or negative?

Mean at d12 highlights the east -v- west battle after the initial Scandi surface high from the various wedges:

[Paul]

Some great charts this morning (if cold is your thing), and some great posts over the last 24 hours or so as well. But, I have to laugh that already some are worrying about the end of a potential cold spell which isn't nailed on In any case, and isn't set to start for a week (ish). I know that usually happens at some point when cold is imminent, but this early?!

[James Maidstone]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

And relax at 168

If you look closer though you have to be North of the Midlands to get below minus4 uppers.  Not a done deal for the whole country..

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

If you look closer though you have to be North of the Midlands to get below minus4 uppers.  Not a done deal for the whole country..

As Paul just said above, all big picture at this stage, not small details. Be in it to win it, surely? 

 

Edit: so just to clarify, I'm not thinking specific locations on the whole when I post, it's more about overall chances and the pattern moving forward. In this case the pattern is holding and evolving as desired. I'm not concerned about aunts, cousins or neighbours getting snow in a specific location. So it's in reference to what happens next. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Griff

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

If you look closer though you have to be North of the Midlands to get below minus4 uppers.  Not a done deal for the whole country..

12hrs later....

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

12hrs later....

Exactly this. 

[That ECM]

Overnight runs are rubbish again I see.

[mulzy]

Fair to say the extended EPS mean is better than the extended GEFS mean. Approaching the perfect configuration that the EC46 had for week 3.

Edited January 29, 2021 by mulzy

[Drifter]

15 minutes ago, Paul said:

Some great charts this morning (if cold is your thing), and some great posts over the last 24 hours or so as well. But, I have to laugh that already some are worrying about the end of a potential cold spell which isn't nailed on In any case, and isn't set to start for a week (ish). I know that usually happens at some point when cold is imminent, but this early?!

Sorry, just observing what the gfs model output is showing. It’d be fine to talk up cold charts at 15 days out no doubt?

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Fair to say the extended EPS mean is better than the extended GEFS mean. Approaching the perfect configuration that the EC46 had for week 3.

That’s good to hear. Was a bit disappointed at the GEFS as they indicate the cold spell would only last around 3 - 4 days in the south. I get paul’s point about not looking for the end before it’s even started , but I can also understand that for many it’s been a long winter of disappointment, so as we enter the last month of winter they are looking for something a bit more sustained 

[nick sussex]

The ECM thankfully sees the light and we kick off the day with nerves a little less shredded ! 

I really wouldn’t worry about what the GFS does with that shortwave heading south from the Arctic later on , better to take this mornings more solid overall support to get over the first big hurdle between day 6 and 7 and run with that!

If as looks like the UK overcomes that first hurdle then we need to get the detail regarding how quickly the coldest air comes in  how deep that cold pool will be , how much instability will be in the flow which will impact of course snow potential .

That’s still open for changes .

Overall no reason this morning to be glum in any way , and as everyone knows it takes a lot for me not to find an irritation with one or more of the models . 

Earlier still some snow potential with several shortwaves and that larger low trying to move in , the models vary with how much trough disruption occurs .

So lots to keep coldies in here interested .

[ICE COLD]

Good morning !!!!!!! Good morning!!!!!! 
check ECM op before any other output

[Matt Jones]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Sorry, just observing what the gfs model output is showing. It’d be fine to talk up cold charts at 15 days out no doubt?

It's a fair point and just as much as milder spells (as recently happened) can be eroded so can cold spells. Quite often I see pattern locked in or the block is not going to be shifted that easily but all too often cold spells can be short and blown away quickly. From the GFS perspective I think the hope is the breakdown as shown later in the run will perhaps go under the block and prolong the cold spell.

If we get a bit of snow in the starved eastern areas I would be happy.

[Tim Bland]

Tuesday looks interesting for central and northern areas as the Atlantic makes more of an effort to get it... 

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Sorry, just observing what the gfs model output is showing. It’d be fine to talk up cold charts at 15 days out no doubt?

Looking good for a cold blast from the east which most seem to  yearn. Not that I don't love them. BUT you can't ignore these. Never straight forward is it. Fingers crossed the sets are wrong 

[MJB]

20 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Sorry, just observing what the gfs model output is showing. It’d be fine to talk up cold charts at 15 days out no doubt?

Have you gone through the GEFS to see if it had support ? 

[carinthian]

17 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, very uncertain with movements of frontal systems during this weekend. The wedge of cold air between Scotland and Iceland seems to be gaining influence in forcing energy south. Just think what could happen when full amplification to the north starts to take effect , Forecasting snow is perilously difficult in your part of the world even with minor changes taking place. No doubt there will be further adjustments over the coming few days but the trend colder.

C

Morning all. Some exciting winter charts this morning. The one below from ECM would normally come with a health warning ! As yet UKMO not saying anything ! but their model at 144t looks to be heading for a Scandinavian High similar to ECM . Saturdays frontal activity seems to have been forced further south and Tues/ Wed becoming more of a widespread threat for central parts. Will get an update from the team later this morning with their view on the latest snow computer run. 

Enjoy the charts .

C

[Premiere Neige]

35 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

If you look closer though you have to be North of the Midlands to get below minus4 uppers.  Not a done deal for the whole country..

Why are you even bothering looking at uppers a week away? It will no doubt change...