Model output discussion 24/01/21

[phil b]

Seen Worse!

[Matt H]

The pub run looks stunning to me at t216. This is only going one way and it isn’t mild!

 

 

[MJB]

Next Saturday sees the cold approaching 

And it could be yet another weekend with snow .................stunning 

 

 

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Fine isn't it. Not sure anyone needs to get worried at this range

Yep, I never understand those who concentrate on 850s and small scale Synoptics at this timeframe.  My advice is - just don’t- look at the ensemble means and trending members, and use a bit of lateral thinking to imagine how surface conditions can change with slight change in macro scale Synoptics. Then you see big boom outcomes. I certainly don’t think we have seen the best ( or worst if you don’t like cold) of winter. 

[ICE COLD]

Brilliant

[nick sussex]

I’m sure they built the Pyramids quicker ! Jeez this is like watching paint dry . I’ve seen countless easterly evolutions over the years and this one takes the Gold Medal for dragging out the drama to get there !

I think because we get the 6 hour steps it does make it seem longer . When the GFS blew up those two shortwaves over the UK I thought here we go ! This is going to be painful ! 

Edited January 28, 2021 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

The deeper cold reaching Scotland by t174 and coming south. 

Good continuity from gfs today. Slight variations but same overall trend to cold returning from the ne. 

 

[DavidS]

What’s not to like. Amplification looks good. Well positioned low to our South East. Non-marginal uppers.

[Allseasons-Si]

The differences to the 12z is that we loose the n>s feed of the cold uppers scuppering our chances of a cold E/NE feed 

18z 210 v's 12z 216

a lot better run and cleaner.

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Next Saturday sees the cold approaching 

And it could be yet another weekend with snow .................stunning 

 

 

It will be sooo much better this time around ...to have snow fall that you know will stick around and not melt the next day..and plenty more snow piling in to keep adding to the accumulations with no worry over DP or warm sectors...

[Chertseystreamer79]

14 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Harmonie 18z for Saturday .

Are yellow hatching's sleet? Tia...

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Harmonie 18z for Saturday .

Harmonie did really well last weekend. Others were calling it much further south and west, but 'she' got the track.

[chionomaniac]

Looks like a lovely Atlantic undercut in the making too. And hitting super cold 850s.  Likey 

[Griff]

Filth

[Jarrow Posh]

9 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The pub run looks stunning to me at t216. This is only going one way and it isn’t mild!

 

 

That is as good a chart as you could wish for if cold is your thing,just need to get it closer to a more reliable time frame,t72

[birdman]

19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Different posters like to discuss different things. For example some post the clusters, some the ensembles and some like to post 384hr FI charts. Personally I prefer to discuss snow fall and it’s location when it’s within a few days. There is an ignore function which can use to tailor your experience on here, so if you don’t want to see posts about snow fall and charts discussing it then please hit ignore on me .

Back on topic and here is the 18z Harmonie model, probably best of the bunch this evening for widespread snow. Arpege has plenty of precip but is mainly rain or sleet ...

Don't worry, I like the short term models too. Better than that jab in the arm buzz/cold turkey FI stuff lol

Saturday doesnt look particulary snowy to me could be more of a messy transitional affair? 

[chionomaniac]

These NH charts are as close to a synoptic nirvana that we wish for. I reckon they can improve too.

[DJ Fart]

9 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Are yellow hatching's sleet? Tia...

Ice pellets or graupel... 

[Always take the weather]

To me the models have been in a kind of gimbal lock so we've all been a bit disoriented as have the numerical models but just like Collins requested a fourth gimbal for Christmas on the Apollo 11 mission it looks to me like we all might be getting a fourth gimbal be it a tad late for said seasonal.

[nick sussex]

I like the block set up here more than the earlier run even though it seemed an age to get there .Its best to avoid those two deeper shortwaves which delay the se movement at day 6. Preferably the shallower set up over the UK is better with more energy heading se.

 

 

[Chertseystreamer79]

1 minute ago, Dj fart said:

Ice pellets or graupel... 

Cheers!

[Purga]

Amazing NH profile

Further WAA blasting into the Arctic through the Bering Straits

[Griff]

Cold persisting in fi

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m sure they built the Pyramids quicker ! Jeez this is like watching paint dry . I’ve seen countless easterly evolutions over the years and this one takes the Gold Medal for dragging out the drama to get there !

I think because we get the 6 hour steps it does make it seem longer . When the GFS blew up those two shortwaves over the UK I thought here we go ! This is going to be painful ! 

Indeed we all know from bitter past experience how these annoying delays can end in tears. The one thing I have noticed about the best cold spells is how they actually get brought forward as opposed to delayed. I think some on here should bare this in mind. On the other hand, today's ops could be a blip and the morning runs could show wintry dreams within 8 days. Next 48 hours absolutely crucial now. 

[nick sussex]

The PV set up over Canada is one of the strangest I’ve ever seen . The overall NH pattern is a bit way out there . 

I really do hope we can land this . No worries about marginality or dew points . The only thing you have to worry about is making sure you have that gloves , ear muffs and scarf combo ready to go !