Model output discussion 24/01/21

[SqueakheartLW]

Here are my picks from the GFS 12z, GFS Extended and GEM 12z

GFS Member 17

GEM Member 12

GFS Extended Member 26

Which one of these is your favourite beasterly then?

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

A look at the anomalies...

WHOOOOSH!!...

but we have to be careful of those SE'ern European heights?

the De-built ecm ens

this morning v's this evening's and there is more NE'ly ens showing in the ext

the tactile shows that there was a push towards the UK with heights the other day but now they are starting to move to the NW,remember these only go out to 192

The EPS ext has mostly all blocking(red boxes)

and,...the ECM was somewhat a mild outlier

lets see if this traction can be maintained or even upgrade

 

 

Good post Si,

Re the latest clusters, there are 6 of them but they are all blocked one way or another.  Look at the borders, if you don’t want to look at the detail,  at T264 all red - scandi block, by T360 two red, 3 purple (Atlantic ridge) and one green (-NAO).  My feeling by T264 this uncertainty will have collapsed and we will have a scandi high.  We will see...

[chris55]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

We gave the ghost up ages ago on this. 

Hi Jason, we don't all live in Kirkburton. Prob best to replace "we" with 'I', remember this is not the regionals. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by chris55

[Cavehill Snow]

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

Indeed, and as ropey a run as it first appeared, if that cold pool moved across days 11 plus (which given the evolution was looking likely), it would bring cold the like of which many of us have never experienced!

So, if that's as bad as it gets, yes please.  Still think it will be an outlier though!

As good as it looks to the north-east, we have 850's of +8C equi-distant to the south-west. Which will win out? No idea but we do have a great perpensity to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[winterof79]

50 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

‘We’ being those it’s unlikely to affect? I’m sure those in west mids and Wales are still very interested ...

Yes but it was bordering on regional discussion to be fair. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by winterof79

[chris55]

45 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

this is the best week with the low anoms in the right place 

What model/chart/run is this representing Blue? Looks good, but some more info would be great.

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

A look at the anomalies...

WHOOOOSH!!...

but we have to be careful of those SE'ern European heights?

the De-built ecm ens

this morning v's this evening's and there is more easterly ens showing in the ext

the tactile shows that there was a push towards the UK with heights the other day but now they are starting to move to the NW,remember these only go out to 192

The EPS ext has mostly all blocking(red boxes)

and,...the ECM was somewhat a mild outlier

lets see if this traction can be maintained or even upgrade

 

 

I think that last comment is highly pertinent Si, in Feb 2018 once the existence of the Scandi high was agreed upon the means upgraded with time closer to the event. I remember there were a great many ‘dodgy’ ops (A bone dry ECM and a few horrific GfS runs?) but the means were rock solid.

I put a wish list up a week or so back and, despite a delay we now have many of those early collectors items before a genuine cold spell. Over the weekend I will be looking for the following:

- A fully onboard UKMO with an obvious progression to cold

- An ECM op from the ‘other’ side of the envelope to tonight’s guff

- 4 GEFS suites in a row with a mean 1030mb Scandi / Icelandic area high

- X model agreement on the ‘rough’ idea of the evolution to said high. With no dissenters. (We knew from Jan 19 from one bad ICON / ECM op that the game was up) Though hopefully we’re less reliant on the wanderings of a sketchy Arctic high than that disasterous affair. I mean rough idea as in for example it’s obvious what’s going to happen (not for snow location ) synoptically up to the Monday trough on the models but after that uncertainty ramps up big time. 
 

There are still lots of things that could go wrong but that ECM mean tonight is beautiful.

So enjoy it before taking your station behind the sofa for the morning runs!!!

 

 

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

SSTs warmer than average, here anomaly for today:

Particularly warmer than average over North Sea, which when (not if) the BFTE comes, will be significant.  

I'm not sure how that scale can indicate average temperatures? Everywhere can only be above or below average!

[ANYWEATHER]

Ouch ....Brass monkey weather...

[sebastiaan1973]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

What model/chart/run is this representing Blue? Looks good, but some more info would be great.

EC46

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes but it was bordering on regional discussion to be fair. 

Regional ? Here is the latest. It shows half the UK at risk of snow, is that too regional ? The chance is there for the south west, all of Wales, central southern England & midlands, hardly a point for discussion, only in the regional threads

added GEM as well for next weekend...could be the 4th weekend in a Row we are discussing snow prospects 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Tim Bland

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Hi Jason, we don't all live in Kirkburton. Prob best to replace "we" with 'I', remember this is not the regionals. 

Yes sorry, but sometimes the commentary goes ott. I am still in the warning zone by about 20 yards

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

I think that last comment is highly pertinent Si, in Feb 2018 once the existence of the Scandi high was agreed upon the means upgraded with time closer to the event. I remember there were a great many ‘dodgy’ ops (A bone dry ECM and a few horrific GfS runs?) but the means were rock solid.

I put a wish list up a week or so back and, despite a delay we now have many of those early collectors items before a genuine cold spell. Over the weekend I will be looking for the following:

- A fully onboard UKMO with an obvious progression to cold

- An ECM op from the ‘other’ side of the envelope to tonight’s guff

- 4 GEFS suites in a row with a mean 1030mb Scandi / Icelandic area high

- X model agreement on the ‘rough’ idea of the evolution to said high. With no dissenters. (We knew from Jan 19 from one bad ICON / ECM op that the game was up) Though hopefully we’re less reliant on the wanderings of a sketchy Arctic high than that disasterous affair. I mean rough idea as in for example it’s obvious what’s going to happen (not for snow location ) synoptically up to the Monday trough on the models but after that uncertainty ramps up big time. 
 

There are still lots of things that could go wrong but that ECM mean tonight is beautiful.

So enjoy it before taking your station behind the sofa for the morning runs!!!

 

 

Yes, that is pretty similar to how I’m viewing things at the moment. Whilst a few options are being thrown about in the models, and ensembles, the smart money seems to be on the scandi high, and from there it just about the position, as to what advects  towards our shores..,.will be fun finding out.  

[Daniel*]

54 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

We are nearly into February, and the warm anomaly shown is only up to 1C, so maybe it is something or nothing.  There is certainly the potential for big convective snow if the BFTE gets going though...

The latest high res SST anomaly compare with earlier in January.

 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Regional ? Here is the latest. It shows half the UK at risk of snow, is that too regional ? The chance is there for the south west, all of Wales, central southern England & midlands, hardly a point for discussion, only in the regional threads

added GEM as well for next weekend...could be the 4th weekend in a Row we are discussing snow prospects 

Wow no need to get upset. I had an opinion that was all. Half the UK are not getting snow on Saturday.... Chill. 

[Matt H]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Wow no need to get upset. I had an opinion that was all. Half the UK are not getting snow on Saturday.... Chill. 

In all fairness Tim is just discussing a weather system that has the potential to produce a rain/snow event for a vast swathe of the country on Saturday. Many other people have also commented on this same weather system recently as well so I’m not sure what the issue is?

[Allseasons-Si]

Forgot to add to my post^...

the ECM and gefs are pretty much on the same page with regards to the MJO,...not often you get that with both of them.

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

In all fairness Tim is just discussing a weather system that has the potential to produce a rain/snow event for a vast swathe of the country on Saturday. Many other people have also commented on this same weather system recently as well so I’m not sure what the issue is?

Its every other post nearly becoming general weather chat. Feels like we are plotting it mile by mile. Just let it happen. When the radar becomes effective I can see the point and excitement then

Edited January 28, 2021 by winterof79

[SqueakheartLW]

18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ouch ....Brass monkey weather...

Back end of next week. Do you think that one is nailed on then? Surely at only a week away. What could possibly go wrong?

Got to feel sorry for the only part of the UK not in the colder uppers at this stage, the Channel Islands

Edited January 28, 2021 by SqueakheartLW

[bluearmy]

ec mean on uppers day 10 were pretty good but throw in the spread for good measure ...... 

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The latest high res SST anomaly compare with earlier in January.

 

Thanks Dan. Is there anywhere we can actual temperature a month or so ago to compare with today’s.. I’m still recovering from the start of January streamer of January 4 and 5 which was a wet one instead of white because the sea temperature was a couple of degrees too high...

[aitchbomb]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

A subtly disguised winters over post. Ha ha. 

It’ll be warnings about solar insolation this time next week. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM is an entirely feasible run. Not suggesting likely, but feasible nonetheless. 

My own thoughts? I think we've seen the best of winter now and I'm not particularly convinced by this potential Feb cold spell. Looks to be one too many hurdles to overcome once again. Would be delighted to be wrong however! 

Oh dear, that's not good to hear from you!  If that's true, for us in the south, winter 2020/21 will go down as a proper teaser but not one that really delivered the goods!

Edited January 28, 2021 by Don

[Bradley in Kent]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The latest high res SST anomaly compare with earlier in January.

 

And of course it's worth mentioning that the eastern North Sea and Baltic are on average colder meaning it's easier to be above average. 

The next fre days in the Baltic region are going to be very cold by today's standards bringing those anomalies down.

For us this is good of course since IF we do get a BFTE it'll be less modified once it marches into the North Sea.

Based on this winter so far though I'm not getting any hopes up whatsoever - still yet to see a falling flake!

[sparky71a]

6 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Back end of next week. Do you think that one is nailed on then? Surely at only a week away. What could possibly go wrong?

Got to feel sorry for the only part of the UK not in the colder uppers at this stage, the Channel Islands

They'll be ok because they are not in the U.K anyway Had a few easterlies when I was living down there though.