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Model output discussion 24/01/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted

Oh the joy of working long hours and missing a days output. Just had a little nosey  - some great and improving ensembles throughout the day.

I guess a blocking episode is fairly likely now - whether or not the orientation or position is in our favour remains to be seen.

Hopefully this will continue and peak at the 18Z when I can view a run!

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

GFS showing why its so frustrating living in the uk if you want to see deep cold air arriving,so so difficult to get it to back so far West,anyway this run will be different in 6 hours,lets hope the reality is that it does make it.At least the trends are good.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)

Not worth picking holes in the runs that are 'too dry' or 'not cold enough', We just don't know how the surface synoptics will play out that will influence depth of cold and precipitation. Get the upper pattern agreed on, which is going the right way, and If the block establishes, like GFS, but hopefully a bit further north, it could be a long-lasting cold spell, with a continual cold air feed from a very cold eastern Europe and upper ridge keeping the Atlantic out. Not worth worrying about any breakdown the GFS show either.

Edited by Nick F
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

UKMO looking good for Saturday

spacer.png

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Nice continental draw.

spacer.png

Then again at 144, looking like it would follow the same trends as GFS, good to have UKMO on board, some decent consistency appearing which is unusual lol. 

spacer.png

Edited by chris55
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Phil Blake Aficionado

Phil Blake

Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
Posted
7 minutes ago, Notty said:

GFS // - pretty good consistency at 9 days out:

06z

image.thumb.png.ae85ba0f3d3de1f9a6153e9a7539db3a.png

12z

image.thumb.png.38863b0f786b7aeae7d6e4856ca767d8.png

Look at where the air is sourced from on the 12z. Will need uppers colder than -7 -8 due to the warmer than average North sea. Need to see the flow more north of east than south of east 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
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Posted

GFS FI about to go off. 

image.thumb.png.0368ab835ae67a725419997ffaa30434.png

Honestly fantastic to just look at.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

para going crud,dragging up milder uppers from the South East,typical,dont want to see this as a trend.

More runs needed?

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Polar Low to plunge to round it off?  Oh for this to to count down

 

BFTP

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
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Posted

"Alexa, define the term 'Mangled vortex'"

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.6511f47f6b616c54f0ee9710cb1339b5.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

para going crud,dragging up milder uppers from the South East,typical,dont want to see this as a trend.

This is my worry, as mused early on - will by focus next run...

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

para going crud,dragging up milder uppers from the South East,typical,dont want to see this as a trend.

It isn’t, the synoptics are great...I suspect the cold will override it and will become more apparent as we progress....as long as the signal is right and we go down this path

 

BFTP

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It isn’t, the synoptics are great...I suspect the cold will override it and will become more apparent as we progress....as long as the signal is right and we go down this path

 

BFTP

It is almost like 'all roads lead to Rome' at the moment

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

para going crud,dragging up milder uppers from the South East,typical,dont want to see this as a trend.

Look north!!!

besides there is no point on pinning the detail at that range but the overall upper pattern is the same with high to the north

cracking gfs run though and this at the end,...this would be a long cold spell to put in the history books if it where to come off.

384 still image and animation,...BEAUTIFUL.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.e823a040bc537182699189ded5ba6391.pnganim_yvs0.thumb.gif.aaf026165a3c63d36372c2b9024a7e3c.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Oh the joy of working long hours and missing a days output. Just had a little nosey  - some great and improving ensembles throughout the day.

I guess a blocking episode is fairly likely now - whether or not the orientation or position is in our favour remains to be seen.

Hopefully this will continue and peak at the 18Z when I can view a run!

15F7A32E-4104-41AA-8BB5-AC54DBC2408C.png

006EC905-D53C-49FE-9604-CEBC53FA43C1.png

Edited by That ECM
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Look at where the air is sourced from on the 12z. Will need uppers colder than -7 -8 due to the warmer than average North sea. Need to see the flow more north of east than south of east 

Is the North Sea above average now Phil ?

actually I checked and it is a little but not hugely ....was worse a month ago 

Edited by bluearmy
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
2 minutes ago, Notty said:

It is almost like 'all roads lead to Rome' at the moment

It can be like that sometimes after a SSW with other teleconnections in favour, the destination is in my view clearer than the means to get there!

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

I think people need to realise FI is 3 or 4 days , worrying about 168 h 240h ....................etc is a waste of energy 

image.thumb.png.6c8a371fd6b281a9fb8a6c5a073f14ea.png 

Nice to see if verifies 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

I like it when North sea SST's start to be discussed.

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

ssta.daily.current.thumb.png.b93f91b7e5a5b561fa309a151678b9b9.png

A tad above average.but I guess actual temperature has to be lower than at Christmas time.. 

Is there a way we can find out say end of December temperature and end of January.  A degree or so drop us not too much to ask for

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

I like it when North sea SST's start to be discussed.

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

ssta.daily.current.thumb.png.b93f91b7e5a5b561fa309a151678b9b9.png

I think that’s accurate because I went for a walk a long the beach at Mudeford and a couple came out of the sea and were really pink. Must because it’s warm 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted
11 minutes ago, MJB said:

I think people need to realise FI is 3 or 4 days , worrying about 168 h 240h ....................etc is a waste of energy 

image.thumb.png.6c8a371fd6b281a9fb8a6c5a073f14ea.png 

Nice to see if verifies 

You’re right wrt to the micro scale but on a macro level the NH pattern across the arctic is going to go blocked a v neg AO 

that’s going to happen in week 2.  donkeys and tails to follow .....

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