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Model output discussion 24/01/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
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Posted
4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks... Just thinking about the situation we had around Christmas which drove those Uppergate debates  just the way the isobars are looping up around slackness to our south east.

Don't mention uppers, I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it!!!

Anyway, GFS is getting back on track at 240

image.thumb.png.589299b0b028f9d4a8eaf1df88c7aac9.pngimage.thumb.png.b0a5f03fbd214d17e4904c4c63f1dad4.png

The models are still searching for the answer, but it's fun watching I must say

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

The // being the sprog that it is is making a right bag of mashings out of it

image.thumb.png.0ca642593cc026acdf1f1b9364865633.png

Edited by winterof79
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

Good 12z GFS run so far, wouldn't worry too much about the high toppling at this stage, I don't think the Atlantic is going to try and push in from the NW that quickly with upper level ridge and dense cold air at the surface.

Between T+144 - 180 I think the arctic high dropping SW across Svalbard will be instrumental with pushing cold pool SW out of Scandinavia towards the UK, while the ridge build NE from the Atlantic will help build heights with the arctic high through the GIN corridor and keep the Atlantic locked out.

gfsgif_144-180.thumb.gif.3541d65d6451e8d68d7472b9defc897e.gif

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

How about CFS take on things? Admittedly not the greatest model but its an absolutely beautiful signal for a mean snowy type Easterly for Eastern, Northeastern and Southern/ SE areas especially you would imagine, and hopefully some nationwide events, its shown a lot of very similar runs  in the last few days and considering Feb is just around the corner we can only pray its got half a clue to what could unfold later in the month

❄?☃️

20210128_161637.jpg

20210128_161706.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
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Posted

Severe cold on GFS 12z very slack winds and marked cold air mass, something like that could give -15C to -20C lows in Kent with snow cover nice to fantasise.

360EC97E-949D-4505-B185-6E17BB0728EF.thumb.png.fd9654850e6c9c9b3a32e5bc30609cbc.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

To a degree here the Arctic high isn’t the help it might seem .

Unless you get it much further south and linking up with the smaller high . At the moment it’s forcing the pattern south and with it that residual energy and effectively sinking the smaller high .

Once the cold is delivered into the ne we want the smaller high to become cut  off with shortwave energy cutting se underneath it.

Which thankfully the GFS finally does but it was a close shave !

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.5a33c9973a87008cb10f9ee1066e63a2.png

Para is looking good 

Keeping an eye, being picky could do with better heights but suspect it might only be a matter of time.... 

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Don't mention uppers, I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it!!!

Anyway, GFS is getting back on track at 240

image.thumb.png.589299b0b028f9d4a8eaf1df88c7aac9.pngimage.thumb.png.b0a5f03fbd214d17e4904c4c63f1dad4.png

The models are still searching for the answer, but it's fun watching I must say

Minus 10c uppers again on GFS in the SE/EA lovely jubbly good to see consistency run to run

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Don't mention uppers, I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it!!!

Anyway, GFS is getting back on track at 240

image.thumb.png.589299b0b028f9d4a8eaf1df88c7aac9.pngimage.thumb.png.b0a5f03fbd214d17e4904c4c63f1dad4.png

The models are still searching for the answer, but it's fun watching I must say

Ooh, but the Uppers are just spiffing . . .  it's the surge of >10C Uppers that are pushing the <-10C Uppers towards Blighty...? And then, after that, it'll be spring!

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

GFS op awesome run.  Watch the HP retrogress towards Greenland in FI...Cold to bitterly cold all the way after midweek next week

 

BFTP

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

To be fair to // that is a convectathon special

image.thumb.png.66ee18cd4a1ff91cfedc501df4299c20.png

image.thumb.png.69a2dcd82f673725b31ede70d38b6494.png

image.thumb.png.82eb2536c40763034980cd3f5d8cdb10.png

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

GFS op awesome run.  Watch the HP retrogress towards Greenland in FI...Cold to bitterly cold all the way after midweek next week

 

BFTP

GFS follows the classic pattern.

Heights building UK --> Scandinavia --> Iceland.

Nice to see. I was a bit worried around the +192h mark, but then it got going.

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted (edited)

With higher pressure over north of uk much dryer weather . possible snow risks further south .

C29820CF-625F-4BE3-B999-461229FBEB5D.png

Edited by Scandinavian High.
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Somethings afoot..... some good trends across all models as we head into the last month of winter

spacer.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

The GFS mean at 156 is showing a strong signal for Icelandic height rises 

image.thumb.png.e8521a53ec35968e2648da5193e0cede.png

GFS lining up the 'Grand Finale' out at 300, with an immense cold pool to tap into

image.thumb.png.8f628232a5cf34b03f966fbfc0f3876f.pngimage.thumb.png.ac7b766e17cfc4651c02d6b5a614fa1f.png 

 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Keeping an eye, being picky could do with better heights but suspect it might only be a matter of time.... 

Indeed, a slower evolution, but it will be a cracker around 240,

The main thing is they get the lower heights towards Italy.

The Iceland  high is so weak at 144, we need more runs to make sure this establishes still.

 

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Matt Jones Contributor

Matt Jones

Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
Posted

It's really not the greatest of runs from the 12Z, it's pretty dry and cold and the uppers run out of steam due to the more SE source. It goes wrong around the 204 hr mark when we cut off the northerly source. Hopefully it's wrong this time. Don't get me wrong I'd take this over what we were seeing a few days ago but it's not going to deliver big time.

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

Stunning long draw Easterly over the southern 1/3 of England with minus 8c and more often minus 10c uppers clinging on in various parts of the South/SE/ EA. No point checking precip charts at this range and streamers are rarely picked out this far out Lovely run just would like to see more of a N of E element to the flow  rather than a S of E shown further into the run

Screenshot_20210128-164530_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20210128-164735_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20210128-164719_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20210128-164735_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20210128-164705_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Matt Jones said:

It's really not the greatest of runs from the 12Z, it's pretty dry and cold and the uppers run out of steam due to the more SE source. It goes wrong around the 204 hr mark when we cut off the northerly source. Hopefully it's wrong this time. Don't get me wrong I'd take this over what we were seeing a few days ago but it's not going to deliver big time.

At least with the op you can compare to the mean and ensembles, probably different again on 18z (maybe better maybe worse ?‍♂️) 

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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted
33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold air for All and snow for many..

I’m refusing to mention any roads or towns from now on

84D8AA65-4C66-441A-979C-83811373810A.png

B580A12B-1E40-40E1-8B4A-C42B51A61963.png

86B0A2B9-7AF5-40E6-94FF-CD9E8EEBF641.png

2FE6EFC3-B49A-4F27-9EC6-37A0DDC56283.png

You could mention streamer though lol

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted (edited)

GFS // - pretty good consistency at 9 days out:

06z

image.thumb.png.ae85ba0f3d3de1f9a6153e9a7539db3a.png

12z

image.thumb.png.38863b0f786b7aeae7d6e4856ca767d8.png

Edited by Notty
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