Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, wolvesman said:

I didn’t know the M4 went to Anglesey.

I said ‘much further north than’.you are right in that For Wales there is some in the north, but in England it doesn’t go ‘much further’ north than the M4... you’re not related to someone called Matt from Stoke by any chance are you ?

[winterof79]

Perhaps a little boom

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Then the change coming quicker than 06z

 

Have a look at the Arctic high on this run compared to the 06 at t168ish

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Perhaps a little boom

And

[phil nw.]

Until the Atlantic ridging kicks in around day 6 then marginality continues for many of us as the boundary lies across the UK.Still snow chances somewhere for Sat/Sun and Tuesday by the looks.

The thinking is that week 2 is when those heights should push the jet further south. 

[ICE COLD]

T180

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Minus 12 into Scotland at T150. Maybe 10 or 11’s to be fair.

Aberdeen looks good!      

[Tim Bland]

Cold air for All and snow for many..

I’m refusing to mention any roads or towns from now on

[phil nw.]

There we go T180

nice to see some continuity.

[Weather roller-coaster]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold air for All and snow for many..

I’m refusing to mention any roads or towns from now on

Just Stokeing the fire

[feb1991blizzard]

At 180 on the 12z GFS, there is just a shortwave between us and bonkers cold spilling SW, the one directly to the S of Greenland, how this behaves will determine what happens, its still going to be a cold run but we could be on the cusp of something special if that wasn't there and a cleaner bout of WAA.

Thats all thats stopping us, reason i point this out is because this isn't fantasy world now, this longwave pattern is being pumped out run after run.

EDIT : it might not stop us anyway but would be easier if it wasnt there.

Edited January 28, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[winterof79]

Snow anyone in the east

[Lampostwatcher]

Let the countdown commence 

T-180 Feb 5th 

❄❄❄

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

There we go T180

nice to see some continuity.

There appears to be something/colours missing in the Arctic

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

There we go T180

nice to see some continuity.

Looks nice.  But are we not, certainly in the south at risk of scouping up Mediterranean air 

[Methuselah]

Nae bad, for Day 7:     

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Looks nice.  But are we not, certainly in the south at risk of scouping up Mediterranean air 

While ever the Arctic high is forcing no. 

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't like the next Atlantic low just getting into S Greenland now

[Captain Shortwave]

The jackpot prize would be the link up of Arctic heights to the Atlantic ridge. Whether or not this happens is very much up in the air (GFS 12z not quite there this time).

 

For what it is worth, this would still bring some cold/very cold weather with snow showers onto windward coasts (Especially North Sea coasts).

If it does happen, well we could be looking at a very cold start to February.

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't like the next Atlantic low just getting into S Greenland now

Luckily it’ll be gone in 6 hours. 

[TSNWK]

Just now, winterof79 said:

While ever the Arctic high is forcing no. 

Thanks... Just thinking about the situation we had around Christmas which drove those Uppergate debates  just the way the isobars are looping up around slackness to our south east.

[nick sussex]

The set up still isn’t quite there .

We seem to be caught with one Arctic high and that smaller high with residual energy between both .

 

[DJ Fart]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Looks nice.  But are we not, certainly in the south at risk of scouping up Mediterranean air 

Oh yeah, of course we are.  Anything to keep snow away from our corner of the country seems to have happened this winter so far!  

[winterof79]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Thanks... Just thinking about the situation we had around Christmas which drove those Uppergate debates  just the way the isobars are looping up around slackness to our south east.

This time around the cold is now entrenched to our North/and NE. 

The wedge omnipresent wedge to our North has made its mark. 

[phil nw.]

I am thinking we may get a low drop se from the Greenland followed by a further ridging attempt upstream as the first one starts to tilt se. 

This far out though it will change anyway.The main thing is the first ridging sets us up for cold coming south then we wait to see how this develops.