Model output discussion 24/01/21

[snowblizzard]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure about -16, that’s probably happened a few times, but -20, not sure it ever has but this was mighty close:

Ha, see @Daniel* beat me too it!

My avatar!

I dream of seeing this occur again in our country.

You can keep your 'marginal' wet snow/slush fests, this was the real deal! 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon goes as far north as Birmingham now....

Wake me up, when it goes as far north as Norwich (not that it ever will) please, Tim? There's a good chap!

I'm about to fall off my!

[phil nw.]

 

The gif of GFS 06z mean 850's showing how the Atlantic ridging developing by day 8 starts to advect  the cold flow to the ne. towards the UK

The bitter cold uppers starting to make their way south west down through Scandi.into the N.Sea. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by phil nw.

[Daniel*]

The GFS 06z ens best of winter... from around 5th it looks cold, possibly very cold indeed.

 

[Battleground Snow]

ICON Primed and ready at 174. Good start to the 12z runs.

 

[Tim Bland]

12z Arpege

[Tony47]

5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

My avatar!

I dream of seeing this occur again in our country.

You can keep your 'marginal' wet snow/slush fests, this was the real deal! 

Manley, in "Climate and the British Scene", wrote that in the 1939 winter, the coldest ever recorded, the maximum temperature in London on one day was below 15'F ( - 10'C) in a gale force easterly wind. I would have thought that might just fit the bill for -20'C uppers? 

[That ECM]

And we’re off.12z’s are the highlight of another lockdown day.

[Tony47]

Just now, Tony47 said:

Manley, in "Climate and the British Scene", wrote that in the 1939 winter, the coldest ever recorded, the maximum temperature in London on one day was below 15'F ( - 10'C) in a gale force easterly wind. I would have thought that might just fit the bill for -20'C uppers? 

Sorry, that should say '1739'.

[Jason M]

13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon goes as far north as Birmingham now....

I suspect this will be close to the final solution. Note again rain in the far SE yet again. As much as I want it to be wrong I’d be deeply suspicious of anything showing snow across the far SE as historically we don’t do well in these set ups in this part of the world.

[phil nw.]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The GFS 06z ens best of winter... from around 5th it looks cold, possibly very cold indeed.

 

Yes i was just looking at them.Quite a bit colder,even further south.There some ups and downs which would still indicate some Atlantic approaches which is what we would want for further snow chances.

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

My avatar!

I dream of seeing this occur again in our country.

You can keep your 'marginal' wet snow/slush fests, this was the real deal! 

Gave 2 feet of snow here and from memory snow lay on the ground for a month with ice floes in the Thames. I have some incredible photo's from that event.    

[IDO]

GFS a bit further south on the 12z for settling snow compared to 06z:

12z> 06z>

[nick sussex]

The models so far seem to be following historical precedence with these types of set ups.

When you have a wedge of high pressure or block to the north or ne the models tend to underplay the forcing on any incoming low and start correcting south nearer the time .

The set up for this weekend is more marginal compared to last weekend aswell as being  different in evolution , the shortwave headed se and developed within the UK troughing.

This time it’s a developing shortwave to the sw moving in against that wedge of high pressure .

 

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS a bit further south on the 12z for settling snow compared to 06z:

12z> 06z>

GFS p doesn’t go much further north than m4 neither show anywhere near as much snow as the ECM...yet.

[IDO]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

GFS p doesn’t go much further north than m4 neither show anywhere near as much snow as the ECM...yet.

Yes, looks subject to change at short notice. The Sunday feature goes further north on the gfs and suggests it wins out against the block so snow>rain affair and more intense:

12z>  06z> 

[wolvesman]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS p doesn’t go much further north than m4 neither show anywhere near as much snow as the ECM...yet.

I didn’t know the M4 went to Anglesey.

[Battleground Snow]

GFS OP has finally caught up, better late than never

 

[Ice Day]

I would say the UKMO at 144 is doing exactly what we would hope with the heights building across Iceland

GFSP from earlier for the same time 

[winterof79]

Slush City next week

Unless you're Scottish. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by winterof79

[That ECM]

Minus 12 into Scotland at T150. Maybe 10 or 11’s to be fair.

Edited January 28, 2021 by That ECM

[sheikhy]

Poor between 96 and 144 hours was expecting an upgrade in 850s but wasnt to be!!over to ecm!!i guess all the fun starts after 144 hours according to the long range forecast!!

[winterof79]

Then the change coming quicker than 06z

 

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

I would say the UKMO at 144 is doing exactly what we would hope with the heights building across Iceland

GFSP from earlier for the same time 

Indeed.

Good to see that UKMO joins the rest in building these heights, now that it is coming within its range.

[ICE COLD]

Cold air spreading south even earlier