Model output discussion 24/01/21

[MATTWOLVES 3]

57 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh posted a similar thing in the regional thread!!!had a feeling the 06z ecm went south when looking at the pressure charts!!expect further southward corrections in the next few runs!!not too disheartened considering the amount we got last sunday so all good!!!at least the colder air will be further south and west i think?!

Until Exeter change the warning zone areas I wouldn't say this risk is moving south. Last weeks were corrected Northwards don't forget..and that front pivoted and grinded to a halt..I think a similar situation looks likely on Saturday.

[Boro Snow]

16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Found it. Under Mean cloud cover. 

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

 

Sorry Guys just seen your replies, glad you are sorted

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Until Exeter change the warning zone areas I wouldn't say this risk is moving south. Last weeks were corrected Northwards don't forget..and that front pivoted and grinded to a halt..I think a similar situation looks likely on Saturday.

It was quite something to behold!!!the last minute upgrades for the midlands were unreal!!each run from the 06z onwards on saturday just kept upgrading!defo one i wont forget in a long time!!!

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

It was quite something to behold!!!the last minute upgrades for the midlands were unreal!!each run from the 06z onwards on saturday just kept upgrading!defo one i wont forget in a long time!!!

And yet for us southerners it was a nightmare come true 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Know in my back yard from me folks. Snow looking a good bet for Wales and the Midlands.. how far North,how far South im not sure. But the bigger picture remains very positive,we have by the looks of it yet another start warming event taking place as we speak..the interest perhaps gathering momentum as we move into February.

Charts courtesy of Marco P.

Talking of IMBYism, we have only two options, here in the Triangle of Doom: five-minutes' sleety stuff, then a rain-fest; or SFA, as the LP sinks into the Low Countries... I'm guessing on the latter!

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Hate that 6z ECM update but one update of one model doesn’t decide anything. Saw lots of people claiming last Sunday’s systems would end up further south, and we know what happened.

Hate is a strong word, what about the snow starved regions that this will now potentially bring a chance to redeem that? Not that my areas likely to break its duck but other parts in the Southeast may higher up, I'm sure you've already had several snow events up your way, as you say it could end up over the same areas that have already had loads of the white stuff anyway?

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

It was quite something to behold!!!the last minute upgrades for the midlands were unreal!!each run from the 06z onwards on saturday just kept upgrading!defo one i wont forget in a long time!!!

There’s a difference though ECM flagged this out days in advance with Midlands and was very consistent. 

If you see FAX for Saturday midday it’s impossible to make sense out of northern extent of current warning area, the low is much further south than last Sunday it’s conflicting information from Exeter.

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Daniel*

[cidersnow]

18 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

And yet for us southerners it was a nightmare come true 

Indeed...In Clevedon, North Somerset we meausure our snowfall over the past 2 years in minutes it was visible on the ground rather than cm !! 

90 mins so far this year (On Sunday morning)

Models giving us some hope for the next 14 days at least

[MattStoke]

50 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Hate is a strong word, what about the snow starved regions that this will now potentially bring a chance to redeem that? Not that my areas likely to break its duck but other parts in the Southeast may higher up, I'm sure you've already had several snow events up your way, as you say it could end up over the same areas that have already had loads of the white stuff anyway?

We all want our favourite conditions to affect our area first and foremost. Otherwise, what are we doing on here? 

Why would people want for an area they don’t live in and won’t be visiting to see the conditions they like themselves?

I spent 30 years in London and I doubt people in areas that saw snow during those 3 decades cared that the vast majority of the time I saw nothing. Nor would I expect them to   

Or, to turn it the way round, maybe people who haven’t seen much snow shouldn’t be bothered because others have, but I assure you I have to put up with a lot of moaning from such people about my place getting snow while they miss out. It should work both ways if what you’re saying is the way to be!

Edited January 28, 2021 by MattStoke

[Paul]

UKV 12z is just out. It's moved Saturday's rain to snow line a touch further north than this morning, and made it all a bit more marginal with height a much bigger factor than last weekend in terms of lying snow. There is still time for changes around this, and as last week there is a lot of variation between the various models, so definitely not to be taken as gospel. 

  

As an example, the Netwx-MR 00z run has the low further north again, bringing more of the North Midlands and the southern part of Northern England into play, which is more in line with the current Met Office warnings. 

It'll be interesting to see what the 12z's + the UKV 15z bring..

 

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

For anyone who doubts that the BBC 100% use the ECM run from 12hrs ago...no model matches this graphic...

Great stuff there Tim - excellent investigation work! Are you a policeman by any chance!? 

Just to add Met Office use the UKV (They run that model) for the map section on the APP - always good to know what model relates to different forecasts so we can slag them off when  it all goes t**s up! 

Current example of Met Office APP/UKV match up:

Friday 03:00

 

06:00

 

50 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Talking of IMBYism, we have only two options, here in the Triangle of Doom: five-minutes' sleety stuff, then a rain-fest; or SFA, as the LP sinks into the Low Countries... I'm guessing on the latter!

At least you will have thunderstorms in Summer down there...oh no...of course you won’t mate! 

One thing you are guaranteed is tropical days/nights! Lovely trade off for receiving no snowfall most Winters! Won’t be long until we are all searching for the first plume event! 

Back to our current weather - marginal snowfall events are starting to grind my gears! Couple recently have been mostly high ground around these parts! 

ECM last couple of frames would be lovely going forward.

 

 

Hopefully we can all tap into some deep cold through February - it’s been a good Winter for many but let’s go out with a big BFTE snowfall extravaganza to end Winter 2020/21! 

All the best to you all and good luck for the potential weekend snowfall events down South. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

For anyone who doubts that the BBC 100% use the ECM run from 12hrs ago...no model matches this graphic...

Perfect match tbf

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

There’s a difference though ECM flagged this out days in advance with Midlands and was very consistent. 

If you see FAX for Saturday midday it’s impossible to make sense out of northern extent of current warning area, the low is much further south than last Sunday it’s conflicting information from Exeter.

 

Looks very similar to the arperge 6z  if slightly different times

[78/79]

Just now, cidersnow said:

Indeed...In Clevedon, North Somerset we meausure our snowfall over the past 2 years in minutes it was visible on the ground rather than cm !! 

90 mins so far this year (On Sunday morning)

Models giving us some hope for the next 14 days at least

Places like Clevedon, and  Weston S M have always struggled, come about 20 odd miles inland , with a bit of elevation ,and it's a different story altogether,

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

We all want our favourite conditions to affect our area first and foremost. Otherwise, what are we doing on here? 

Why would people want for an area they don’t live in and won’t be visiting to see the conditions they like themselves?

I spent 30 years in London and I doubt people in areas that saw snow during those 3 decades cared that the vast majority of the time I saw nothing  

Its about perspective yes I like yourself love the snow, I was due to have gone to the Scottish Highlands which then got moved from December to early March and now is moved again to December this year as an example.

We maybe different in that regard, Its great seeing other areas such as my cousins in the West Midlands having so many snowfalls to enjoy. But I myself like in 2010 and 2018 still had it in me despite good falls in my area to wish that the whole country had a great covering of snow and in 2010 it was pretty much the last time it nearly did happen, I'm not greedy Its just nice to "share the load out" but obviously others like yourself have different opinions and are looking more IMBY clearly as you say yourself. This ECM run id like to ideally see more expensive but we shall see...

Edited January 28, 2021 by Kentspur

[DJ Fart]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

We all want our favourite conditions to affect our area first and foremost. Otherwise, what are we doing on here? 

Why would people want for an area they don’t live in and won’t be visiting to see the conditions they like themselves?

I spent 30 years in London and I doubt people in areas that saw snow during those 3 decades cared that the vast majority of the time I saw nothing. Nor would I expect them to   

Thought that was what the regional pages were for.  Anyone would think this was the Stoke & Leicester show...!  

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Itw about perspective yes I like yourself love the snow, I was due to have gone to the Scottish Highlands which then got moved from December to early March and now is moved again to December this year as an example.

We maybe different in that regard, Its great seeing other areas such as my cousins in the West Midlands having so many snowfalls to enjoy. But I myself like in 2010 and 2018 still had it in me despite good falls in my area to wish that the whole country had a great covering of snow and in 2010 it was pretty much the last time it nearly did happen, I'm not greedy It just nice to "share the load out" but obviously others like yourself have different opinions and are looking more IMBY clearly as you say yourself. This ECM run id like to ideally see more expensive but we shall see...

Well, that ECM run doesn’t really give much if any snow to anyone based on the accumulation charts that someone posted, so it doesn’t really benefit/improve things for anyone anyway.

[Kentspur]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Well, that ECM run doesn’t really give much if any snow to anyone based on the accumulation charts that someone posted, so it doesn’t really benefit/improve things for anyone 

The Midlands maybe South Yorkshire, and Northern Home counties into Wales I can almost guarantee it, well enjoy, while us Southeasterners await the Beast-no messing about with marginal uppers, an interesting ECM weeklies tonight for all regions 

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, Paul said:

UKV 12z is just out. It's moved Saturday's rain to snow line a touch further north than this morning, and made it all a bit more marginal with height a much bigger factor than last weekend in terms of lying snow. There is still time for changes around this, and as last week there is a lot of variation between the various models, so definitely not to be taken as gospel. 

  

As an example, the Netwx-MR 00z run has the low further north again, bringing more of the North Midlands and the southern part of Northern England into play, which is more in line with the current Met Office warnings. 

It'll be interesting to see what the 12z's + the UKV 15z bring..

 

UKV is tend to under do the precip amounts. Euro 4 below and matches the warning - albeit a bit further south. (similar to Aperge) 

[sheikhy]

Icon 12z further south!!just bout reaches central midlands then heads further south!!!

[Biggin]

25 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Looks very similar to the arperge 6z  if slightly different times

528 dam is well north

[weirpig]

Just now, Biggin said:

528 dam is well north

I was taking about more in relation to the low.  but yes  damn is different 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, NeilN said:

When was the last time a -16 / -20 upper hit the UK? 1986? 1979? 

Not sure about -16, that’s probably happened a few times, but -20, not sure it ever has but this was mighty close:

Ha, see @Daniel* beat me too it!

Edited January 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

Icon goes as far north as Birmingham now....

[Battleground Snow]

Icon is an improvement on its 00z run, quicker slide south east of the low.

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Battleground Snow