Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 24/01/21


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Bit harsh Tamara...I thought it was a constructive response by Chino to your reply

Some great charts this morning (if cold is your thing), and some great posts over the last 24 hours or so as well. But, I have to laugh that already some are worrying about the end of a potential cold

Genuinely amazed that posters can have any moans about the current output (apart from someone with a squirrel in the sw) Even if it goes awry, it’s still brilliant model watching and half the rea

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    ECM 06z snow line further south like ARPEGE I sense snow risk is now starting to fall in Midlands still good for south. Wales likely to see significant snow.

    D6C53554-21A1-4C57-AB71-B2102B8CDC36.thumb.png.d8eea2f76109bbb1d0e84dcdcc58cf7b.pngA0CCCDFB-3D50-47C7-94CA-60108E3758CC.thumb.png.c7d1158cdd684a5540c2de0996010d92.png

    Yeh posted a similar thing in the regional thread!!!had a feeling the 06z ecm went south when looking at the pressure charts!!expect further southward corrections in the next few runs!!not too disheartened considering the amount we got last sunday so all good👊!!!at least the colder air will be further south and west i think?!

    Edited by sheikhy
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Hate that 6z ECM update but one update of one model doesn’t decide anything. Saw lots of people claiming last Sunday’s systems would end up further south, and we know what happened.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    ECM 06z snow line further south like ARPEGE I sense snow risk is now starting to fall in Midlands still good for south. Wales likely to see significant snow.

    D6C53554-21A1-4C57-AB71-B2102B8CDC36.thumb.png.d8eea2f76109bbb1d0e84dcdcc58cf7b.pngA0CCCDFB-3D50-47C7-94CA-60108E3758CC.thumb.png.c7d1158cdd684a5540c2de0996010d92.png

    Anyone with the Meteogroup app can see local output from the 06z ECM ...

    AA3DD98F-646F-42FD-BC98-D8CA2F7D5335.jpeg

    FAC477A7-3B18-4F40-9A2E-9ABD9E6E80BC.jpeg

    9598C986-7C4F-4A31-B873-CBB869FCCD47.jpeg

    60CFA672-C066-44FF-B2C0-8EFD0ED4ABBA.jpeg

    Edited by Tim Bland
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    When was the last time a -16 / -20 upper hit the UK? 1986? 1979? 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Location: Hereford
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Anyone with the Meteogroup app can see local output from the 06z ECM ...

    AA3DD98F-646F-42FD-BC98-D8CA2F7D5335.jpeg

    How much are snow accumulations going to be jeopardised by warmish ground temps following the last few days and in some areas rain having fallen before it turns to snow?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Runcible Spoon said:

    How much are snow accumulations going to be jeopardised by warmish ground temps following the last few days and in some areas rain having fallen before it turns to snow?

    Depends how heavily it is...Remember a week or so ago in the northwest when it was flooded, then the rain turned to snow..Setteld fairly quickly 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    6 minutes ago, Runcible Spoon said:

    How much are snow accumulations going to be jeopardised by warmish ground temps following the last few days and in some areas rain having fallen before it turns to snow?

    @cooling evaporation...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
    7 minutes ago, NeilN said:

    When was the last time a -16 / -20 upper hit the UK? 1986? 1979? 

    i think -20 has clipped a few times historically - but i think even the famous Jan 1987 spell didn't quite achieve that - something like 19.

    I think we got lower than -15 in the BFTE Feb 2018 spell, maybe a 16 or 17 on the EAst Anglian or Kent coast

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bwlchgwyn, NE Wales, 395m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold undercuts from East. Warm thundery in Summer.
  • Location: Bwlchgwyn, NE Wales, 395m asl.
    2 hours ago, Boro Snow said:

    FB_IMG_1611833644886.jpg

    Do you have a link for that format. Not seen that in years.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    12 minutes ago, Runcible Spoon said:

    How much are snow accumulations going to be jeopardised by warmish ground temps following the last few days and in some areas rain having fallen before it turns to snow?

    Saturday possibly BUT if the front gets in on Sunday it should be after most have seen an overnight frost , last Sundays snow fell on frosty ground so it was ideal

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    14 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Majority cluster now either cold or severely cold. This is usually when they start to go down the pan - 24 to 48 hours more of this and we are home and hosed.

     

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (4).png

    With a 7-8C spread at D3, I think there needs to be another 5 days of this to get through to ensure that ECM hasn't simply 'forgotten' to model in an Icelandic Low.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Depends how heavily it is...Remember a week or so ago in the northwest when it was flooded, then the rain turned to snow..Setteld fairly quickly 

    Example: 10th December 2017. Heavy rain all night. Turned to snow around 5-6am. Ground totally saturated. Gave about 5cm depth. In Abingdon. Most Hi-Res models had it as a total rain event even at T+0. At least matched level snow depths from March 2018.

    Edited by The Enforcer
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    10 minutes ago, Hillsnow3 said:

    Do you have a link for that format. Not seen that in years.

    Found it. Under Mean cloud cover. 

    WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

    Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

     

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bwlchgwyn, NE Wales, 395m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold undercuts from East. Warm thundery in Summer.
  • Location: Bwlchgwyn, NE Wales, 395m asl.
    3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Found it. Under Mean cloud cover. 

    WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

    Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

     

    Well done. Probably last place I would have looked.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    Just now, Hillsnow3 said:

    Well done. Probably last place I would have looked.

    It was easier to find under the old wetter format. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Know in my back yard from me folks. Snow looking a good bet for Wales and the Midlands.. how far North,how far South im not sure. But the bigger picture remains very positive,we have by the looks of it yet another start warming event taking place as we speak..the interest perhaps gathering momentum as we move into February.

    Charts courtesy of Marco P.

    Es0l0qUWMAEtrwX.jpeg

    Es0l03xXUAcgQJb.jpeg

    Es0l1IBW8AIrs3i.jpeg

    Es0l1ZAW4AA4c5I.jpeg

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...