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Model output discussion 24/01/21


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Looking good for West and North Oxfordshire ..........................I hope 

That gets as far east as here at the base of the Chilterns. 

I'd anticipate the finer details still to be resolved as per last weekend. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, Griff said:

That gets as far east as here at the base of the Chilterns. 

I'd anticipate the finer details still to be resolved as per last weekend. 

I think this will be further south than last weeks!!expecting further push southwards on ecm later!!06z out in a while!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham
7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think this will be further south than last weeks!!expecting further push southwards on ecm later!!06z out in a while!!!

I agree. Anywhere North of the M3 is going to be in the firing line 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
29 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

My, what a stonker the 06Z is! Even right at the death (Yes, I know it's @T=384, and probably won't verify!) But, what if it did?!:santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Mustn't get too carried away!

 Lovely to see even if its chances of materialising are less than Spurs winning all four trophies this season!

A stonker's stonker of a chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
59 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Shades of the beast from 2018

E078559C-61AB-43C2-883E-DBA15830D232.png

5BEB60C2-66DF-4044-9CC7-1CD92D0C152B.png

E6C3A446-948E-4B5F-9498-2C07C743F5C7.png

AF6775A9-1C47-4AC0-A242-5FA5B8E9B17C.png

Issue with the 2018 one is imby there was v little in snowfall which looks like it wood be the same if this were to happen 

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Posted
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Look at this . ❤️

992461FD-A915-4E13-96EE-62AC85713608.png

CF2A3076-37AA-4150-8486-D7F4C3D7E459.png

Looks Like Gonzo's Nose! Or Cyril Sneer!

Things Shaping up nicely Bitter Cold is knocking on the Door but would like to see more consistency across 3 major models as we near the Start of February. We are starting to see Cross Model similarities for the first time this winter however for deeper cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
4 hours ago, Nick F said:

GFS has the Genoa low at day 10

GFSOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.64588c8d411df3fdb89dae16a27f4146.png

EC has Iberian low at day 10

ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.02f7cbd37cf5b0a500ca5b12c24e1602.png

But as they both similarly get the ridge building NE over NE Atlantic  towards GIN corridor at day 10 is a good signal, so long as we get those low heights / troughing the Med, worry is EC would cut of the low over Iberia and that would allow milder air over southern Europe to get mixed into any easterly flow.

 

Would that happen though in this situation?

As I see it, across the models we see a returning theme of a developing dynamic High over the Scandinavia/GIN area, with an Arctic High to the Northeast of that.
Lows to our West/Northwest are deep into North America --> No Atlantic to push away the block.

The dynamic High is fed with decent WAA on the Mid-Atlantic, so it will develop even more, instead of sagging into Europe.
That will likely cause the pressure to drop over Europe and the Mediterranean, while dragging in those low heights from Siberia. (Especially the help of the Arctic High might be key to align the High along an initial NE-SW axis).
I think that ECM Op would show that at day 11-14. We should hope for a good orientation of the high, so the cold wave does not go towards Greece again.

Overall, this morning I see step-by-step improvements, even on the feared 0z's, so we're still heading in the right direction for cold.

EDIT: As I was typing this, Frosty and Sebastiaan showed P20 and P25 that have this scenario.

Edited by Cold Winter Night
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Judging by the latest 09hrs  ICON slightly more forcing on the low moving in by the wedge of high pressure to the north compared to the 06hrs run at T30hrs.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Judging by the latest 09hrs  ICON slightly more forcing on the low moving in by the wedge of high pressure to the north compared to the 06hrs run at T30hrs.

 

The icon probably tracked the low more northerly then other models    maybe just correcting?.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, weirpig said:

The icon probably tracked the low more northerly then other models    maybe just correcting?.

Good point . There’s still an envelope of about 50 to 75 miles north or south in terms of track at this timeframe , the depth might also change slightly which will effect how much ne momentum it has.  Looks like another nail biter depending which area you live in .

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

C Kirkwood going for " significant snow , at least a couple of cm's is the current thinking " 

I can't recall such a period of model watching when the uncertainty is so close to 0 hours 

Edited by MJB
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 hour ago, Boro Snow said:

FB_IMG_1611833644886.jpg

Hi Boro I miss seeing those can you send a link please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
7 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Just a general question on potential BFTE next month - do we know which areas/regions this would favour based on models? 

Areas that are prone to streamers coming in from the the east off the north sea, it would depend on the direction of the wind though, which wouldn't be known untill 48 hours out.  E.g wash, Thames.

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Posted
  • Location: nottingham
  • Weather Preferences: ice days,and snow,snow,snow...
  • Location: nottingham
44 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Just a general question on potential BFTE next month - do we know which areas/regions this would favour based on models? 

South pennines, yorkshire moors, Thames estuary, wash, humber, east Coast of Ireland are hot spots for heavy dumpings...

Everywhere else very good too especially further east, and caught in a streamer..

The only exception is Middlesborough which historicity get nothing...!

Edited by sub zero
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
47 minutes ago, Singularity said:

image.thumb.png.9a6e78a62429bc7865959d1ac78c4d05.pngimage.thumb.png.12d8ecc050850248ba7d9fedd0b1dd30.png 

Finally for now, a technical detail - I often see patterns such as the right-hand GFS(P) chart above referred to as a 'west-based negative NAO', but that's incorrect. For that, a fair bit of the high - I'd say at least a third - needs to be overlapping Canada.

What we see there is a centrally-focused negative NAO but with an unhelpfully positioned Atlantic trough, albeit one prone to disrupting with lows splitting away east. The run went on to do that but further north than many on here would prefer. Could easily have been further south.

Yeah I think the right hand side chart is infact the route to the highest of possible snow risks. Of course such an evolution comes in very infrequently historically so the odds are always stacked against us on that front, but its interesting to see.

The other thing that is starting to become increasingly prominant on the longer range models is an Arctic high moving SW with a large area of very deep cold coming down.

Now of course this does share some similarities to the beast of 2018. As you say earlier on though that was close to a textbook evolution. Its quite plausable that we end up with the upper high forming too close and the real deep cold ends up in Europe and we get a cold but less extreme E/ESE with the main thrust too far south.

Of course as long as we can keep the cold coming into Europe, then we are going to be very open to even quick fire 24-48hr oppertunities should the flow switch. Won't need a 3-5 day build up in that scenario and we can make the most of the tome we have...almost in reverse to the set-up early on in the winter where we had cold synoptics but it took so long to bring down the cold

As for Friday-Saturday set-up, I think whilst there maybe some modest southwards corrections, broadly the area of snow isn't going to shift too much, with the hotspot as per normal in these set-ups being W.Midlands, especially with any decent altitude, with a zone running ESE of snow that gradually grows over time .

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
58 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just a follow up from the above post from yesterday.The frontal system across southern areas on Saturday causing a bit of a problem. Looks like the low heading into France, although this feature filling will provide a bit more energy along the frontal boundary.  The front 50 or 100miles further north can increase the snow prospects in the region where the air mass will be coldest. So based on current in -puts the snow computer flags up some snowfall across North Wales across to the Peak district even at lower level( as the favoured spots ). Also some convective snow in the Northeast of England for a time. Sundays snowfall seems to have diminished at this present time but another bout of energy heading east Tues/Wed may deliver. Longer term period around 7th -10th February  models showing renewed  amplification between Greenland and Norway that could deliver the first real widespread of cold into The British Isles and Northern Europe with the wind field NEly. Hope that helps.

C

Interestingly the Beeb have gone for Sunday being a " repeat " of Saturday , so much uncertainty so close to the event (s) 

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