Model output discussion 24/01/21

[weirpig]

Parra  show -12  hitting the east of England  at 228    ive seen worse charts    Then ....

  

Edited January 28, 2021 by weirpig

[sheikhy]

Need that improvement between 120 and 144 hours with low disrupting more south eastwards!!!could happen on 12z!!apart from that its looking pretty good at the moment!!

[ICE COLD]

I make the para a stonker

[IDO]

Interesting that the gfsP has moved to what the gfs op had been showing in the last few runs, a mid-lat highj? Now the gfs on this run is deviating on that with upstream changes:

[ICE COLD]

Look at this .

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Interesting that the gfsP has moved to what the gfs op had been showing in the last few runs, a mid-lat highj? Now the gfs on this run is deviating on that with upstream changes:

The OP has been wrong at 72-120 for the last few runs... It's almost caught up, so I'd be more inclined to go with the para in the midterm 168-216. Both would do tho!

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Parra  show -12  hitting the east of England  at 228    ive seen worse charts    Then ....

  

And that’s what I like see uk in freezer south east England will definitely be Cold enough for the white stuff..

[Froze were the Days]

All Para charts at a certain range to be taken with huge dollop of salt...it has a poor verification rate at such a range.

Overall ecm 0z is okay but still struggles to get the real cold in at D10...wrong alignment but again 'potential' is there, chortle!

[IDO]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

The OP has been wrong at 72-120 for the last few runs... It's almost caught up, so I'd be more inclined to go with the para in the midterm 168-216. Both would do tho!

Yes, cannot argue with that, it seems they are picking different routes at each pivotal point in a run, and then merging at some point in time. Very interesting as it gives two takes with effectively the same data but different algorithms and layers!

I would take either as well up to d12, but the gfs op if I had a choice:

d11 gfsP>op>

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Only slight problem with the Para is its highish heights, so limited PPN, clouds would be topping out quite low.

[Ice Day]

Well it took its time, but by 300 the GFS is pretty incredible.  I think I'd prefer this one!!!

 

Of course it will be entirely different in 6 hours, but it's model output.

[Griff]

No concerns if GFS ends up like this, I reckon parallel is more on the money due to subtle details much earlier on though. Happy to be mistaken though either way. 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Griff said:

No concerns if GFS ends up like this, I reckon parallel is more on the money due to subtle details much earlier on though. Happy to be mistaken though either way. 

I think the most important takeway from both these runs is they both get low pressure east into Italy, where the ECM was reluctant to do so. 

Better do some work now!

[chris55]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

All Para charts at a certain range to be taken with huge dollop of salt...it has a poor verification rate at such a range.

Overall ecm 0z is okay but still struggles to get the real cold in at D10...wrong alignment but again 'potential' is there, chortle!

I think we can start to take the broader signal if these kind of charts keep showing, but those -15 850s have to be treated as low probability. 

If we look back at the initial response to the original SSW we were seeing extreme charts day 9-10 with very very cold air flooding down from the north east, what we ended up with was cold but not extreme.

Of course there is always a chance, but a long way to go on this one.

Weekend looking good for snow for some so plenty to keep us interested in the all the way out to day 10-15

 

[ICE COLD]

WOW 

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

No concerns if GFS ends up like this, I reckon parallel is more on the money due to subtle details much earlier on though. Happy to be mistaken though either way. 

The para has been very west based in FI of late, so not a preferred solution for IMBY. Last two runs:

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS 06 z is brilliant and a blizzard machine for many with SE snow all the way.  T258

 

 

£x
 

loads of cold over the U.K. before this and apart from Cornwall ‘blip’ the cold remains even with the trough over us....with deeper cold quickly ushering back in....beautiful.  The nice thing is cold is in well before this

 

BFTP

Edited January 28, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ice Day]

As has been stated ad-nauseum on here, fine details in FI are irrelevant.  However, the Para and GFS both showing this for 9th February is worthy of note I would say.

  

Pretty much a clean split and is something that @TEITS has mentioned over the last couple of days. 

[sebastiaan1973]

GFS168H average. I see quite a difference with the EC-oper about the Atl. Ocean Ridge. Almost none of the GFS members have this.

[sebastiaan1973]

2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

An outlier too I see. 

Iberian low? 

 

Please read Nick F's comment earlier this morning.

[ICE COLD]

The gfs is insane at the back end .

Also the stakes have gone up for another snowy Saturday

[carinthian]

Not very often you see a chart like this one for intense cold. Ice flows out of the Skagerrak en route to the Humber Flue ! Best save this chart and come back in another week or so .

Edited January 28, 2021 by carinthian

[Had Worse]

Just now, carinthian said:

Not very often you see a chart like this one for intense cold. Ice flows out of the Skagerrak en route to the 

and.... the missing words.

[ICE COLD]

Shades of the beast from 2018

[topo]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Not very often you see a chart like this one for intense cold. Ice flows out of the Skagerrak en route to the 

After many years the sea has started to freeze in the protected areas in Southern Norway. So probably if the models output verifies we could literally see this