Model output discussion 24/01/21

[SLEETY]

Crud ecm after 144 amazing how quick that low rushes across the Atlantic, and all cold air pushed away in 24 hours. 

Outlier again! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey folks remember what we have all been saying these past few weeks...fi starts at around 96hrs...we have had snow today..some of us a fair bit,and others witnessed there first fall of the Winter. UKMO ECM and GEM all show promise later next week,which would put us in a with a shout of further snowfalls. Look at some of the fax charts...theres even uncertainty to how far any fronts get on Wednesday,which again..would bring a further Snow risk...so let's try and pin down what happens between now and midweek...then concern ourselves about next weekend come mid-week...You've got to admit though gang...this is so much more fun than last year...

And a big up to all of you on here,some of you were talking about this snow risk today nearly 7 days ago.. Thats pretty dam impressive  

Absolute whiteout here right now. Amber warning was a good call.

Edited January 24, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Beano said:

Not liking the look of the NH profile at 192, that PV looks to be getting reorganized

With a split predicted after day 10 on ECM, PV not likely to get re-organised for long, if correct?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is horrible.

Atlantic on steroids.. 

It isn’t. It just isn’t.  Hasn’t been all season and there is no driver to fire it up now!  The charts that fire up the Atlantic are ALWAYS in FI and never verify.  Which is not the usual winter fayre when the opposite happens!  

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Demand a recount at 168, I preferred the previous run

Yep, we just can't get the role of the dice can we? PV setting up shop in the all too familiar location, atlantic train that won't stop and the ever strong azores high hanging round like a bad smell. 

[Vikos]

Edited January 24, 2021 by Vikos

[Alexis]

ECM snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

ECM snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

Even at 144hrs it was curtains. It screamed toppler. 

[Froze were the Days]

We've been here a few times at the end of January...thinking that the Atlantic won't 'fire up' - just because it hasn't most of the winter doesn't mean it's not going to at all. Just a word of caution but yes that's the worst ecm day 8 to 10 for some time and some will be looking for it as an outlier but if the op continues with the theme be warned.

As I said this morning, I've got a baaaadddd feelin' about this one.

[blizzard81]

As for the gem, I have never known it to be anywhere near the mark when it goes for wintry nirvana at days 9 & 10 - if not backed up by the ecm. 

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It isn’t. It just isn’t.  Hasn’t been all season and there is no driver to fire it up now!  The charts that fire up the Atlantic are ALWAYS in FI and never verify.  Which is not the usual winter fayre when the opposite happens!  

Or trend setter! 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

We've been here a few times at the end of January...thinking that the Atlantic won't 'fire up' - just because it hasn't most of the winter doesn't mean it's not going to at all. Just a word of caution but yes that's the worst ecm day 8 to 10 for some time and some will be looking for it as an outlier but if the op continues with the theme be warned.

As I said this morning, I've got a baaaadddd feelin' about this one.

Hey, @Froze were the Days, when was the last time you had a good feeling about the model output?

Edited January 24, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Troubleatmill]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

With a split predicted after day 10 on ECM, PV not likely to get re-organised for long, if correct?

True but as we know from previous times, get a strong PV located around Baffin and it can really fire up the Atlantic and hang around, but like you say...if correct, but we can only go off what the model shows?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, we just can't get the role of the dice can we? PV setting up shop in the all too familiar location, atlantic train that won't stop and the ever strong azores high hanging round like a bad smell. 

Pretty confusing that mate..with another warming due its nigh on impossible to say where the Vortex will be..its been displaced all winter. And tbh we have not seen a zonal train all Winter.Your talking as if this winter as been a disaster..Maybe in some areas..but for many its been superior to the last 3.

[Vikos]

It was 25th, then months change, then first days of February, now we reached didi land...

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Or trend setter! 

Trend setter is a good eulogy

[Notty]

11 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey folks remember what we have all been saying these past few weeks...fi starts at around 96hrs...we have had snow today..some of us a fair bit,and others witnessed there first fall of the Winter. UKMO ECM and GEM all show promise later next week,which would put us in a with a shout of further snowfalls. Look at some of the fax charts...theres even uncertainty to how far any fronts get on Wednesday,which again..would bring a further Snow risk...so let's try and pin down what happens between now and midweek...then concern ourselves about next weekend come mid-week...You've got to admit though gang...this is so much more fun than last year...

And a big up to all of you on here,some of you were talking about this snow risk today nearly 7 days ago.. Thats pretty dam impressive  

Absolute whiteout here right now. Amber warning was a good call.

Yes indeed Matt, just look at the spread after 4 days:

 

[Troubleatmill]

15 minutes ago, joggs said:

That is not a organised pv. Cards just not falling for UK if its proper cold you want.

Organized wrong wording joggs you are correct, however if you run the NH profile from now to 192 you will see it kind of is and in totally the wrong place for us

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

It was 25th, then months change, then first days of February, now we reached didi land...

I presume that’s what we call la la land! LoL!  All the L’s.  

Look, now that most (read I!) have had some snow, this winter is already better than most in recent years.  Second point, the SSW effects are continuing to drip feed themselves into the mix as only they know how (and us down here try to figure out every time it happens!).  The MJO is coming to town.  Expect the unexpected.  Expect snow!  Best chance for a cold Feb since 2009 in my opinion.  

[Purga]

GEFS35 pointing to below average temps for February

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, @Froze were the Days, when was the last time you had a good feeling about the model output?

To be honest at the beginning of the Year and got carried away with some of the posts...but for some reason with the continued chilly/cold spell lasting past mid-month (longer than I thought) I haven't been expecting February to be cold or to go into a cold phase equal to what we've already experienced. I have been posting CFS charts which have been showing a fairly blocked signal but over the last day even they've become more muted, more in hope than expectation.

[Griff]

Just now, Beano said:

Organized wrong wording joggs you are correct, however if you run the NH profile from now to 192 you will see it kind of is and in totally the wrong place for us

Not worth looking too far ahead for anything other than entertainment / drama?

Gem makes PV look smashed at 240.

We shall see! 

[phil nw.]

The newer fax at t72 shows more resistance against the Atlantic fronts which continue to tilt more east to west and are grinding to a halt somewhere around the borders.

This is because rising pressure further north is showing up more in the update.Compare it to the earlier t84 for the same time.

T72                                                                 T84

We see a stronger surface ridge around Iceland and also a weak little wedge of heights over S.Norway.

It still looks like mild will win for a short while further south and west but we again see these little changes which could affect developments beyond mid-week.

The later fax's tonight(after 11pm?) will show how the MO view those.

The battle goes on.

Edited January 24, 2021 by phil nw.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A special day today for many that had barely any snow forecasted. 

I believe we aren’t out of the woods yet. This February I think could be a decent one. But let today be a reminder not to take each run at face value. Most high res models got today wrong at less than 24 hours out! 

[Don]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey folks remember what we have all been saying these past few weeks...fi starts at around 96hrs...we have had snow today..some of us a fair bit,and others witnessed there first fall of the Winter. UKMO ECM and GEM all show promise later next week,which would put us in a with a shout of further snowfalls. Look at some of the fax charts...theres even uncertainty to how far any fronts get on Wednesday,which again..would bring a further Snow risk...so let's try and pin down what happens between now and midweek...then concern ourselves about next weekend come mid-week...You've got to admit though gang...this is so much more fun than last year...

And a big up to all of you on here,some of you were talking about this snow risk today nearly 7 days ago.. Thats pretty dam impressive  

Absolutely Matt.  I wasn't the best placed for snow today but it's luck of the draw!  However, like you say, plenty more opportunities to come and hopefully this will continue into February, even if we don't get a deep cold flow.  You cannot say this winter has been boring, even if it has been frustrating lol!  Also, nice for the south east to get a decent for a change this winter!

Edited January 24, 2021 by Don