Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Tease of the day goes to... 

Followed closely by the far less likely...  

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Tease of the day goes to... 

I think this is

[Griff]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

I think this is

Yes, see post above

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks cold at 144 , and likely to get colder still as we  pull in winds from a frigid scandy ...

Issue then is how the Atlantic behaves...

 

[Griff]

Gem ends like this, ecm to follow? 

Edit: to repeat this morning, obliterated? 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Griff

[Matt H]

The latest CFS run is still going for an easterly by the 8th February. It has been very consistent with this theme recently and with the recent trends in the other model output I think it might be on to something for a change!

Edited January 24, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Is the GEM a decent model compared to the others

Well Mr Bland seems to think so...verification rates the same as ecm?really? So what's the 12z Gfs showing guys.

[Alexis]

12 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Is the GEM a decent model compared to the others

It shares similarities with the UKMO, hence they are both sniffing this possible new development.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

It shares similarities with the UKMO, hence they are both sniffing this possible new development.

Not sure about that, i think it is completely independent of UKMO, it is the JMA that was developed by UKMO?

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well Mr Bland seems to think so...verification rates the same as ecm?really? So what's the 12z Gfs showing guys.

No, It is second to ECM at day 10, but ahead of GFS.  Similar outputs due to sharing of data 

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The latest CFS run is still going for an easterly by the 7th February. It has been very consistent with this theme recently and with the recent trends in the model output I think it might be on to something for a change!

I was told it was crud this morning but if the latest run Is showing cold then maybe it's not.

[carinthian]

Arpege chart going for a snowy Thursday with quite a depth in some favoured places. Will be interesting to see the updated fax for the same day.

C

Edited January 24, 2021 by carinthian

[nick sussex]

The GEFS are a mess with a wide variety of solutions varying from good to poor for cold.

I think given the drama the models have made recently the lower resolution ensembles are having even more trouble .

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Apege chart going for a snowy Thursday with quite a depth in some favoured places. Will be interesting to see the updated fax for the same day.

C

Will be a massive win for this model if it’s correct as I can’t see any other model showing the same. Probably only 1 out of 30 GEFS ensembles has snow in Birmingham midweek ? 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Matthew Gill]

42 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Arperge still going for the slider Wednesday into Thursday.

Bank!

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Will be a massive win for this model if it’s correct as I can’t see any other model showing the same

It was the nearest with the event today. Hoping it will adjust South to bring the SE into play. 

[Alexis]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure about that, i think it is completely independent of UKMO, it is the JMA that was developed by UKMO?

I could be wrong! I thought the UKMO rated the JMA but they're not related?

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Arpege chart going for a snowy Thursday with quite a depth in some favoured places. Will be interesting to see the updated fax for the same day.

C

Wow! As metoffice app for Thursday has it raining and topping out at 11c.. app or no app to have such differences at 96 hours 

[Sweatyman]

14 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Arpege chart going for a snowy Thursday with quite a depth in some favoured places. Will be interesting to see the updated fax for the same day.

C

no chance haha

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM was very snowy for the south next weekend. Let’s hope it keeps with the theme later and shows more snow for all. So. NIce seeing social media full of people having fun with their families today!

Looks like today a rain sleet mix around places East of London very similar I wonder if my location and places such as SE Essex will see any snow at all this winter, id love for this ECM chart to be right for once 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Kentspur

[Boro Snow]

8 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I could be wrong! I thought the UKMO rated the JMA but they're not related?

Yes this is spot on the JMA is highly regarded by the UKMO but thats as far as it goes 

[Tim Bland]

GEM doesn’t have the slider but goes on to be very snowy day 9 / 10

Edited January 24, 2021 by Tim Bland

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Wow! As metoffice app for Thursday has it raining and topping out at 11c.. app or no app to have such differences at 96 hours 

Yes, will be interesting where the Met Office places the occluded fronts on the Thursday fax chart when updated. Those sort of snow depths over the NW Midlands do, seem rather extreme, but who knows .

C

[Allseasons-Si]

The parra JFF in fl,...

Edited January 24, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks like today a rain sleet mix around places East of London very similar I wonder if my location and places such as SE Essex will see any snow at all this winter, id love for this ECM chart to be right for once 

ECM was fairly spot on with today? Look at the northern extent which it picked out when most other models didn’t. It also showed rain east of London and far south east ?