Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 24/01/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Afternoon guys

i nearly fell off my chair looking at the 06z runs,...crikey!!!

the gefs means at 192 and 240,...splendid indeed.

gensnh-31-1-192.thumb.png.3fec9320f21dc6c3185b6abfef3a455c.pnggensnh-31-0-192.thumb.png.2e2d86f4ca9fe5c15bda36c590ce0a15.png

gensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.727f616e4ff846aae37023732ab8e253.pnggensnh-31-0-240.thumb.png.a1b05e6373093cb612f89399bcfd218d.png

the ICON 

12z 114 v 06 120

iconnh-0-114.thumb.png.35f51b892213643ddc06e4b3e9392128.pngiconnh-0-120.thumb.png.f96f177b8d8be40889acac8ed88250ee.png

the low is more rounded on the 12z,this is why it pushed S instead of SE,we need this to be shallower for it to head SE

06z ICON in motion(12z not out yet) and as people have said it has a snow event midweek next week and it looks like it is stalling over N England,this then would push S/SE later.

anim_cwv6.thumb.gif.a4ee8788ba090b7d114b690da41d22bf.gif

06z gefs ens are a big upgrade to previous and may it continue☺️

graphe3_10000_262_32___.thumb.png.3b1cf13a7dbc9d87e077f31c40d5ec64.png

Edit and just to add the met warnings are for Mon,Tue and Wed next week but what i am interested in is that they are right at the coastal fringes,this tells me that there would be no marginality in this event.

Untitled.thumb.png.b6a528aea1ad469867ab42be44bc7508.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Look for an upgrade between 96 and 144 hours on the gfs 12z!!especially in regards to that snow band for tuesday and wednesday!!knowing our luck it will carry on pushing everything north and east!

Knowing your luck

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

The perfect image of a very scary looking ‘beast’ from the east about to swallow the UK whole.....

33372E6F-9EC1-4827-B8A1-08BB5B2BD43D.thumb.png.385d36aa910228023325399042eaa708.png

Not sure if it will turn out like this exactly but what an image that is.   If only it wasn’t the CFS.....

 

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Penicuikblizzard Experienced

Penicuikblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Doesnt look like any midweek snow on gfs again!!!

More interesting in what shows in the later charts  as the midweek event has a high chance of being a snow to rain event unfortunately 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

T120 Ukmo. Heights north building. The last line in the met extended “with snow possible in many places”  was at the request of @Paul so people play nicely in here.

ACE91998-857C-4431-87E8-08A0359003CF.gif

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 14
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Ukmo 120-144, Wahoo 

8B20733C-599B-45EA-95C4-5D0EFF756A4A.png

CAAF126C-DA6B-46D2-97F3-18D1AEE90786.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
  • Like 10
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted

UKMO 12z is beautiful with a decent easterly developing by t144!

97094D1C-3787-4FAC-8294-192831036AD5.gif

  • Like 18
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

UKMO 12z is beautiful with a decent easterly developing by t144!

97094D1C-3787-4FAC-8294-192831036AD5.gif

Liking that a lot.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

UKMO 12z is beautiful with a decent easterly developing by t144!

97094D1C-3787-4FAC-8294-192831036AD5.gif

Need to see the uppers....  But surely they will be sub -5s at worse for the vast majority..  as it looks pure easterly with no med feed.

Also it appears there is a lot of snow fall to the near continent, that will help

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Doesnt look like any midweek snow on gfs again!!!

The gfs looks to progressive with that and i would suspect that it would dirupt further SE

gfs v's ICON for the same time(96 hrs)

gfs-0-96.thumb.png.9d4862080faeeeae1ea385f4bb5e3a37.pngicon-0-96.thumb.png.c4054d8a7bbc254739e7a428ccc11cce.png

the gfs is a tad further south than the 06z though.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Gfs 12 taking the awkward route..but she'll get there....

Edited by tight isobar
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

UKMO uppers good over all but the far south, T144:

9DD70845-E0FF-4CB6-97B1-D53339510956.thumb.gif.2771d7c10d4f064b59207a8ead4508e9.gif

The future potential from there is great:

00E8F1AD-A7D5-4B9F-9187-84103506D454.thumb.gif.c85fda0553f9138300979a2d5c01b14a.gif

Edited by Mike Poole
Corrected T850 chart
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Griff said:

Looks a bit less messy 144

It's the gfs12z mate expect nothing less...the mess is where you'd expet..@Iberia=Atlantic....no worries as we gain..

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO uppers not there yet at T144:

7AC89F6C-AC11-4206-8A1A-FB4E9CF4B6CB.thumb.gif.f9ddb220aeee4c2e3100997dac28a092.gif

For the south anyway, but the future potential from there is great:

00E8F1AD-A7D5-4B9F-9187-84103506D454.thumb.gif.c85fda0553f9138300979a2d5c01b14a.gif

Thats t72 Mike I’ve posted them above there good 

FE06F9DF-F4CB-4BDF-A041-E230E14ABA71.gif

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Gfs 12z is slower at bringing in the cold than the UKMO but it’s coming

B0EC294E-6A6C-44FB-A378-A0877001B7A8.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Gfs 12z is slower at bringing in the cold than the UKMO but it’s coming

B0EC294E-6A6C-44FB-A378-A0877001B7A8.png

Low clears se quicker on Ukmo.

4CB8AD1A-0375-473C-A8DE-E1EC5F425094.png

676EA716-935A-44F3-9B2B-8C2BD4EB695C.gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Gfs 12z is slower at bringing in the cold than the UKMO but it’s coming

B0EC294E-6A6C-44FB-A378-A0877001B7A8.png

Tad colder over Scandi and russia etc

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO uppers not there yet at T144:

7AC89F6C-AC11-4206-8A1A-FB4E9CF4B6CB.thumb.gif.f9ddb220aeee4c2e3100997dac28a092.gif

For the south anyway, but the future potential from there is great:

00E8F1AD-A7D5-4B9F-9187-84103506D454.thumb.gif.c85fda0553f9138300979a2d5c01b14a.gif

Thats 72 hr.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...