Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Phil Blake]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks Dan. Is there anywhere we can actual temperature a month or so ago to compare with today’s.. I’m still recovering from the start of January streamer of January 4 and 5 which was a wet one instead of white because the sea temperature was a couple of degrees too high...

Edited January 28, 2021 by Phil Blake

[Bradley in Kent]

3 minutes ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

Back end of next week. Do you think that one is nailed on then? Surely at only a week away. What could possibly go wrong?

Haha, literally everything...

In Jan 2016 we had a cold spell 'nailed' 4 days away then for the first time in history a hurricane formed in January and PUFF, all cold gone and the rest of winter was a westerly show.

[Always take the weather]

4 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Be thankful Ed for work in these times, No furlough, no work or wages since Aug last year (eating into my reserves!) and I’m like Jimmy Stewart in the ‘Rear Window’.  Driving my wife mad .

It’s holding firm at the moment...if not the exact route.  18z will be just for you....super mild

 

BFTP

Don't forget Jimmy Stewart was right when everyone else thought he was crazy. It takes a humans touch to see something in the models that everyone else sees ( but doesn't see if you catch my drift). Keep up the good work every one and thank you from a weather lover who at one time thought he was the only one.

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Thank you. Couple of degrees colder and by end of next week another .5 ish.. given us 2.5

[MJB]

Saturday Snow

Decent for a few areas 

 

Sunday Snow 

Sunday snow doesn't get as far North as what the Beeb are thinking , a cracking weekend all the same 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Here are my picks from the GFS 12z, GFS Extended and GEM 12z

GFS Member 17

GEM Member 12

GFS Extended Member 26

Which one of these is your favourite beasterly then?

17...no doubt about it...that is THE BEAST

 BFTP

[sheikhy]

Not the best 18z so far!!cold delayed?!!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not the best 18z so far!!cold delayed?!!

Only slightly i reckon 

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not the best 18z so far!!cold delayed?!!

 Blimey let it get going

This looks better than the 12z , could swing round for a cracking Easterly ....................................could 

Looks ready to pounce doesn't it ?

Edited January 28, 2021 by MJB

[Mark wheeler]

Harmonie 18z for Saturday .

[Griff]

There we go

[blizzard81]

Its got to be said. A big step backwards on the afternoon and evening operational runs. For example see yesterday's gfs 18z compared with today's for the same time frame. Whether this means another carrot has been dangled and abruptly taken away or it is simply another delay (oooh that rhymes), remains to be seen. However, even if it is the latter, never a good sign imo. 

[winterof79]

Dreadful  Sheiky 

 

[ICE COLD]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not the best 18z so far!!cold delayed?!!

I thought that my happen if u look at the GEFS graph it was on its own in bringing it in to early on the 12z op .  It’s coming tho

Edited January 28, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Tim Bland]

56 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Its every other post nearly becoming general weather chat. Feels like we are plotting it mile by mile. Just let it happen. When the radar becomes effective I can see the point and excitement then

Different posters like to discuss different things. For example some post the clusters, some the ensembles and some like to post 384hr FI charts. Personally I prefer to discuss snow fall and it’s location when it’s within a few days. There is an ignore function which can use to tailor your experience on here, so if you don’t want to see posts about snow fall and charts discussing it then please hit ignore on me .

Back on topic and here is the 18z Harmonie model, probably best of the bunch this evening for widespread snow. Arpege has plenty of precip but is mainly rain or sleet ...

[chionomaniac]

This looks pretty good with better amplification.  One doesn’t need to look further really.

There is only one road forward....

[phil nw.]

T168

About on track with the Atlantic ridge. 

[Griff]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

This looks pretty good with better amplification.  One doesn’t need to look further really.

There is only one road forward....

Fine isn't it. Not sure anyone needs to get worried at this range

[MJB]

I sometimes wonder what people are looking at , when you get 4 runs a day you are going to get a 6 , 12 , 18 or 24 hour and so on variation on timings ..................grrrrrr look at the theme

That is an absolute cracking chart , picking fault with it and you might as well switch the light off and go to bed.

Pretty much as Stav has shown on the Beeb 

[Griff]

18z vs 12z

I prefer shape on the latest run. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Griff

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

This looks pretty good with better amplification.  One doesn’t need to look further really.

There is only one road forward....

But it would be rude to not look any further

[Allseasons-Si]

Crank it up,...this is better aligned at 192...

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Different posters like to discuss different things. For example some post the clusters, some the ensembles and some like to post 384hr FI charts. Personally I prefer to discuss snow fall and it’s location when it’s within a few days. There is an ignore function which can use to tailor your experience on here, so if you don’t want to see posts about snow fall and charts discussing it then please hit ignore on me .

Back on topic and here is the 18z Harmonie model, probably best of the bunch this evening for widespread snow. Arpege has plenty of precip but is mainly rain or sleet ...

Point taken sir. I would say that if the snow event was purely for the North your commentary would decrease somewhat. Anyhoo I'm tired of this have a good evening.

[Tim Bland]

Another weekend...another chance of snow ️ Hopefully those that have missed out will join in this time

Edited January 28, 2021 by Tim Bland

[ICE COLD]

I reckon we could get the -15 line in