Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Chesil View]

Bearing in mind that if the current output is to be believed, then we are still nearly ten days away from the worthwhile UK wide cold getting here. Should we really being getting hung up on any output good or bad at that range. Get it to within five days before worrying about the details of different runs and their ramifications.

[Matt H]

A fantastic ECM 12z ensemble mean!

t216:

t240:

 

 

[Biggin]

 This says the sea temperature is not that warm Are they wrong?

[Mike Poole]

I’ll take the ECM T240 mean and spread!

Mean high into scandi, trough extending south and southeast into Italy.  And low uncertainty about both of those on the spread.  Details to be firmed up but looks great, itching to see the clusters

[Man With Beard]

That ECM T240 (op run) is an absolute joke. 1040mb high to the north. 1035mb high in Scandi. No Euro high. Easterly into the east side of the UK. Atlantic stalled. And the uppers are still not cold!

If that actually happens, that'll be the unluckiest chart ever. Fortunately, it won't

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Personally we need to see how this weekend pans out and how Tues/Wed develop....we saw how bad t168 ECM was on Monday.  Let it ride out, don’t believe the coldest op run either.  There’s much to be settled ‘locally’...but hemispherically the game is on

 

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

15z UKV

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Biggin said:

 This says the sea temperature is not that warm Are they wrong?

SSTs warmer than average, here anomaly for today:

Particularly warmer than average over North Sea, which when (not if) the BFTE comes, will be significant.  

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

A fantastic ECM 12z ensemble mean!

t216:

t240:

 

 

A mean Scandi High + Genoa Low at 240h? Who can complain about that?

That's a big improvement compared to the mean of yesterday's 12z and today's 0z.

[Jarrow Posh]

21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm12z..less said the better...however it's evolutionary is bordering ridiculous!!... I'm going to pretend I never even viewed it.....@non worthy imo.

You are right....Sometimes some charts just dont look "right" and the ECM after 144z certainly falls into that category imo...we may be proven wrong though!

[ICE COLD]

Right at the top end of the pack and a mean easterly at days 9 and 10 . Some ens also breaching the magical -10 mark towards the end as well . Everyone breath

[winterof79]

55 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM is an entirely feasible run. Not suggesting likely, but feasible nonetheless. 

My own thoughts? I think we've seen the best of winter now and I'm not particularly convinced by this potential Feb cold spell. Looks to be one too many hurdles to overcome once again. Would be delighted to be wrong however! 

A subtly disguised winters over post. Ha ha. 

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

That ECM T240 (op run) is an absolute joke. 1040mb high to the north. 1035mb high in Scandi. No Euro high. Easterly into the east side of the UK. Atlantic stalled. And the uppers are still not cold!

If that actually happens, that'll be the unluckiest chart ever. Fortunately, it won't

Agree it like a bag of Bertie bassetts.

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

15z UKV

We gave the ghost up ages ago on this. 

[Jarrow Posh]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

SSTs warmer than average, here anomaly for today:

Particularly warmer than average over North Sea, which when (not if) the BFTE comes, will be significant.  

And the Baltic in particular is far from Baltic!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Jarrow Posh said:

And the Baltic in particular is far from Baltic!

Aye, but that’s less likely to help with convective snow on a strong easterly here!

[Doctor96]

SST  North sea 

 

i do not post much , but every month in winter I watch the north sea temperatures and tonight there have been quite a few comments on the north sea temperatures. 

I have no doubt that the SST for north sea at the moment is colder than average .  However some of you have shown graphs with anomaly warmer and others colder . you need to see what is the comparison . if the comparison is to 1971-2000 then we are about in line but for the period post 2000 we are colder no doubt.  Usually we see temps of around 5 c in  march , not in late January for parts of North sea.

I reckon with the temps being still low we will see the sst  get lower and this will make east cost weather more snowy and less marginal in february.

 

 

[Griff]

Ecm zonal vs previous 

[Jarrow Posh]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Aye, but that’s less likely to help with convective snow on a strong easterly here!

As weve all ready found out to our cost living just 3 miles from the NE coast of England...barely a flake so far this winter!

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Ecm zonal vs previous 

FYI that does show negative

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, Jarrow Posh said:

And the Baltic in particular is far from Baltic!

I wouldn't advise going for a swim in it. It's only a couple of degrees above average. Any Easterly flow over that would be a snow machine for southern Scandinavia.

[syed2878]

31 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

NAVGEM,.....

 

 

 Blimey situation surely not bad at all if we have to call on the navg to meet the EVMGFF and you KMO looks good surely we haven’t reach the stage of calling the NDVG in to service. 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

SST  North sea 

 

i do not post much , but every month in winter I watch the north sea temperatures and tonight there have been quite a few comments on the north sea temperatures. 

I have no doubt that the SST for north sea at the moment is colder than average .  However some of you have shown graphs with anomaly warmer and others colder . you need to see what is the comparison . if the comparison is to 1971-2000 then we are about in line but for the period post 2000 we are colder no doubt.  Usually we see temps of around 5 c in  march , not in late January for parts of North sea.

I reckon with the temps being still low we will see the sst  get lower and this will make east cost weather more snowy and less marginal in february.

 

 

Hi @Doctor96, current SSTs local to UK:

A bit above average as per my post re the anomalies above.  Re snowy weather for the east coast from an easterly you want warm sea temperatures and very cold uppers, for maximum convective snow showers.  As we might, just possibly, be about to experience...

Edited January 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

Not bad, but I think we can do even better over the next few weeks

ECM weeklies

 

[James Maidstone]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

SSTs warmer than average, here anomaly for today:

Particularly warmer than average over North Sea, which when (not if) the BFTE comes, will be significant.  

if the BFTE comes in and it is the right side of marginal then couldn't this aid the snow creation and subsequent precip rates?