Model output discussion 24/01/21

[northwestsnow]

As far as 00z runs tend to go i feel coldies should be happy with todays offerings...

I do hope those in the south west get some snow over the weekend ..

If anyone deserves it is they for sure.

Next week looks delicately poised , the really colder stuff remains in FI so probably worthwhile holding off another 48 hours before the booming can begin..

[Faronstream]

Nothing to complain about with the GFS 0Z for once, hovering around or even below -10 850 temps for 2 weeks straight 

[Man With Beard]

Now this is more like it. 1030mb mean Scandi High in GEFS, and what's more, a mean trough developing to its south. Odds on a "Beast from the East" just went up a bit.

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

Now this is more like it. 1030mb mean Scandi High in GEFS, and what's more, a mean trough developing to its south. Odds on a "Beast from the East" just went up a bit.

The charts JH and mushy use should start to reflect this in the near future you would think.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

Now this is more like it. 1030mb mean Scandi High in GEFS, and what's more, a mean trough developing to its south. Odds on a "Beast from the East" just went up a bit.

 

We await EC mean/eps, in my case,nervously...( Thats purely because a Beast is possible).

Looks great but we know from bitter ( excuse the pun) experience UK cold spells can be derailed very very easily...( t96 i think it was in Feb 2012,the Beast that never was).

[Sky Full]

Even the CFS 9M currently develops a healthy easterly between the 4th and the 11th February....

...so it must be nailed on, then.  

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The charts JH and mushy use should start to reflect this in the near future you would think.

You’re gonna see a mean Atlantic ridge in the 8/14 later, skewed through W Europe and then tilted towards e greeny .....

[bluearmy]

Have to hand the consistency award to gfsp week 2 

annoyingly it continues to create a -WNAO ...... a v frustrating one with cold out of reach to our east as well as our west !

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’re gonna see a mean Atlantic ridge in the 8/14 later, skewed through W Europe and then tilted towards e greeny .....

Now then Blue...

Potential spoilers... I'm thinking Euro heights forcing Atlantic troughing to tilt in an unfavourable way promoting a South sourced airflow across Western Europe?

You have no idea how peed off id be if that comes to pass...

Edited January 28, 2021 by northwestsnow

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

That has to be the best lot of 00zs in a very long time!!ecm still has the snow for saturday!!think its setting up a direct hit for the midlands!

I don’t think it’ll be cold enough for widespread snow this weekend looking at the uppers (compared to last weekend). Northern hills would be the usual places to benefit though, say over 300m.

[Climate Man]

31 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well that’s another cracking day 9/10 chart from the ECM, and will lead to a substantial “big freeze” if it materialises.  The days are getting longer, it doesn’t mean you can’t have a big freeze in 6 weeks time but fingers are crossed for things to fall right earlier than later in Feb. 

Indeed, late Feb 2018 was better for me than 2010. Less snow but that winchill....-18. Whatever the climate is doing it can still happen and relatively late in the season

All models seem to have a general trend in that direction but some a bit more than others. 

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Now then Blue...

Potential spoilers... I'm thinking Euro heights forcing Atlantic troughing to tilt in an unfavourable way promoting a South sourced airflow across Western Europe?

You have no idea how peed off id be if that comes to pass...

It’s a longer list than that ..........

[winterof79]

Cool to colder zonality comes to mind

17 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I don’t think it’ll be cold enough for widespread snow this weekend looking at the uppers (compared to last weekend). Northern hills would be the usual places to benefit though, say over 300m.

Northern Hills? There is only GFS suggesting it gets anywhere near the North. 

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s a longer list than that ..........

I see the euphoria of yesterday is being watered down as ever with everything that could go wrong doing so. Lol

Edit. Or is it just the commentary on here that leads you to believe that? 

Edited January 28, 2021 by winterof79

[IDO]

Good runs this morning with the trend maintained and merging x-model. Difficult to say how it will go apart from colder and we now can only wait to see how good it will be. It does look unlikely that this will downgrade per se, just the level of cold and snow to be determined. All the "potential" is post-d10 IMBY, so that could well improve with gfs westerly bias, but it is def a battle of west-v-east and the UK needs a bit of luck as it is usually on the periphery due to its location.

So a bit of a wait, a good chunk of remaining winter, for us in the south, before we get some sustained interest. Even by d10 the -4c mean isotherm remains north of the M4:

ECM moved towards gfs this morning. Initial cold IMBY looks dry.

Let us see how it pans out?

 

[saintkip]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s a longer list than that ..........

Cryptic as ever, yesterday nudge nudge wink wink all good today the opposite, suggests whatever you are seeing is pretty pointless.

[Cymro]

8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I see the euphoria of yesterday is being watered down as ever with everything that could go wrong doing so. Lol

Edit. Or is it just the commentary on here that leads you to believe that? 

Are you reading the same thread as me this morning? This is one of the most positive mornings witnessed on the model thread following the 00z. 

But the easterly does look relatively dry at this stage (will chop certainly change) 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Cymro

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Cryptic as ever, yesterday nudge nudge wink wink all good today the opposite, suggests whatever you are seeing is pretty pointless.

nah - it’s all going well

just design that there are plenty more things to go awry than NWS main concern  ....

lack of time to be giving detailed posts ..... others are doing a great job here ....... if I read something I particularly disagree with then I will try to comment 

My main current concern is a lack of  euro trough which mean less advection west of deep cold and possible high sank too far south across nw Europe 

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Are you reading the same thread as me this morning? This is one of the most positive mornings witnessed on the model thread following the 00z. 

But the easterly does look relatively dry at this stage (will chop certainly change) 

I'm reading the same one which has people looking for spoilers to an event that remains at day 9/10 before then cold and wet apart from boundary snow. 

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Cymro said:

Are you reading the same thread as me this morning? This is one of the most positive mornings witnessed on the model thread following the 00z. 

But the easterly does look relatively dry at this stage (will chop certainly change) 

Bore da! 

I'll keep the tweets out of this thread, but @MattHugo says he's anticipating significant snowfall for Wales and likely Midlands too on Saturday.

I'm not concerned about the IMBY location aspect, rather reference to possibly significant snow fall. 

I might have read it wrong though  

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Bore da! 

I'll keep the tweets out of this thread, but @MattHugo says he's anticipating significant snowfall for Wales and likely Midlands too on Saturday.

I'm not concerned about the IMBY location aspect, rather reference to possibly significant snow fall. 

I might have read it wrong though  

reading his tweet you would be ok , I don't see that on all the models though ?

[Tim Bland]

Great to see ECM holding firm re Sat,, could even be more snow for some on Sun. 

[Nick F]

Morning

Looks like we are on the cusp of tapping into the deep cold lurking to the northeast, the The Beast is ready to pounce, but the usual obstacles in the way, as is par of the course in recent winters. First of these obstacles is getting low pressure to the NW to sink SE rather than south, as a cut-off low off Iberia will pump heights across mainland Europe holding up the deep cold from spreading south. 00z EPS mean does push troughing / low heights further east across the Med in the extended. We really need that Genoa low, rather then ridge there! Secondly, getting heights to rise to our North and ideally NE too. There are probably more obstacles, but these the main two IMO.

GFS has the Genoa low at day 10

EC has Iberian low at day 10

But as they both similarly get the ridge building NE over NE Atlantic  towards GIN corridor at day 10 is a good signal, so long as we get those low heights / troughing the Med, worry is EC would cut of the low over Iberia and that would allow milder air over southern Europe to get mixed into any easterly flow. 

Great deal of uncertainty even in the near time, but more on the mesoscale differences on how far north frontal systems advance over the weekend against cold air trying to push back south. 03Z UKV has the two frontal systems pushing in from the SW on Sat morning then later on Sunday, but further south than other models, which have snow/rain divide over N Wales/Midlands rather than UKV across S Wales and S England.

Saturday morning

Sunday evening

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Great to see ECM holding firm re Sat,, could even be more snow for some on Sun. 

Fantastic charts for the midlands on saturday!!!!!5 to 10cms widely!!!!wales gets ambushed lol!!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Morning

Looks like we are on the cusp of tapping into the deep cold lurking to the northeast, the The Beast is ready to pounce, but the usual obstacles in the way, as is par of the course in recent winters. First of these obstacles is getting low pressure to the NW to sink SE rather than south, as a cut-off low off Iberia will pump heights across mainland Europe holding up the deep cold from spreading south. 00z EPS mean does push troughing / low heights further east across the Med in the extended. We really need that Genoa low, rather then ridge there! Secondly, getting heights to rise to our North and ideally NE too. There are probably more obstacles, but these the main two IMO.

GFS has the Genoa low at day 10

EC has Iberian low at day 10

But as they both similarly get the ridge building NE over NE Atlantic  towards GIN corridor at day 10 is a good signal, so long as we get those low heights / troughing the Med, worry is EC would cut of the low over Iberia and that would allow milder air over southern Europe to get mixed into any easterly flow. 

Great deal of uncertainty even in the near time, but more on the mesoscale differences on how far north frontal systems advance over the weekend against cold air trying to push back south. 03Z UKV has the two frontal systems pushing in from the SW on Sat morning then later on Sunday, but further south than other models, which have snow/rain divide over N Wales/Midlands rather than UKV across S Wales and S England.

Saturday morning

Sunday evening

Looks further north than the last few runs!!