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Model output discussion 24/01/21


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
29 minutes ago, Tamara said:

It was you who asked me to push the boundaries to paraphrase your own words as if it was a life changing decision (which it clearly isn't because it is a discussion with strangers about the weather) and to make 'a punt' - and I did, did I not? Even if the request seemed a little surplus to requirements from what had already been said and it smacked of some kind of fishing expedition - which this latest reply demonstrates it indeed was. You turn around the last chance saloon request of a 'punt' into a volte face and talk about structured answers - which I actually gave.... Even if it wasn't the response you were, self evidently, looking for..

I am not under (your) self appointed examiner rules to 'feel more confident to predict the mid latitude response to tropical events to a specific outcome'.  Perhaps you need to read my post a couple of times more, (and some), and try to respectfully understand the point it was making because I tried to genuinely respond to your own question today of a few days back and took the time to do so when, frankly, I have much better things to concern me than pandering to a chionophile who in essence wants a structured punt to tell him its going to get cold and snow....

I now (equally genuinely) wish I hadn't bothered. Boa noite.

 

Indeed

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Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth
1 hour ago, Lord Grogon said:

It’s part of a special group of painfully frustrating terms including:

Uncertainty

Battleground

Midlands North

Downgrade

Pesky shortwave

Dew points too high

Usually correct south

Still waiting for the effects of the SSW.

Phasing issue

 

Apologies, but one last one?

JFF???

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well there’s the scandi high i was on about an hour or so ago, great run this, and it shouldn’t just be discounted because its the 18z, this is exactly the evolution we should expect now given the SSW and MJO resurgence into phase 7.  It won’t go away on the 0z’s.  

BC5CE12A-407D-48C3-A5DA-482A1A70D63D.thumb.png.7b66059ae8b6fbcf86f6763cbe480f62.png

Save this chart, if it becomes real, I will send you 10 Pounds via PayPal for your next pints (when pubs open up again)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Save this chart, if it becomes real, I will send you 10 Pounds via PayPal for your next pints (when pubs open up again)

Not sure what you mean Vikos!  But GFS // looks to me like it is taking the faster route, just out to T162:

ACE1DCEB-B9BC-4171-A281-697B95C49509.thumb.png.1361a7383305cb315464d68f8e11f775.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I would just like to say that I don’t take any offence at Tamara's post and I am happy for it to stand. She is entitled to her opinion just as I am. I can’t deny being a chionophile, but I can say that if I see no chance of cold prospects then I either will state that or say nothing at all. But I still think that there are strong opportunities for severe cold outbreaks in the forthcoming period, but no guarantees and I’m sure Tamara realises that too. 

image.thumb.png.c652eeaab0741766fb524ccbda140853.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Well, well, well..

Very nice 12z runs it must be said, I have been on shakey ground in regards to the wedge scenario and always felt the models were underdoing the wedge but its nerve wracking considering time frames involved to come and see those 12z runs was really nice. It's hard to not get excited but its also foolish to get carried away with lots of drama to come and those pesky 0z downgrades.

Most optimistic I have felt in a few weeks it must be said.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I mean if patterns look like this on the 8-2-2021 I will send you +10 money. I heard you brits love to bet on everything ?

Well I used to @Vikos , haven’t had a single gamble or bet since the lockdown in March, so I’ve saved some money but I’m not sure what for!  

Anyway this from the GFS // at T276 is probably the most ridiculous NH chart I have ever seen (not claiming anything specific for the UK here):

19D30495-AC40-4F98-912D-713913F8EB62.thumb.png.c804ed285e3212b38945cfca7b0184b3.png

Just noting i guess what might happen if the arctic high connected with the increased amplification we are now seeing in the Atlantic sector...

Edited by Mike Poole
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47 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Really trying to contain my excitement here folks ! It’s difficult because this looks the best chance all winter to get some deep cold west .

The pattern looks like being helped along by the MJO given events upstream. If we can just avoid any shortwave dramas near Greenland and give the troughing over the UK enough time to get se then that would be a big hurdle overcome .

I agree, this could be a start of something here....fingers crossed for the shuffling of the truffle SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Good grief I've just been greeted with a raft of reports. As I'm at work I'll just please ask to return to on topic and leave personal dramas out of it. Good night all.

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Ridging from Pacific side up through the Aleutians - check

Strong Arctic high - check

1065mb high covering almost all of Greenland in synch with Arctic high - check

Cut off Scandi high - check

Mega cold blast for Britain & Ireland surely - no. Lows to south west with positive tilt deepening rapidly probably created in response to the high stretching down US & Candian east coasts. 

Certainly great looking synoptics even if it don't deliver winter nirvana.

19D30495-AC40-4F98-912D-713913F8EB62.png.f1bffb8397b704fb60c50f4935d8273d.thumb.png.74bfaaf59af36e48ce5f4dec872bc171.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Back to crud runs so far in the morning, somethings never change, UKMO looks suspect to me if you run the animation, don't worry the afternoon runs will be fine

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

UKMO looked so promising at 120

 

image.thumb.png.9f0e5167f3bc797ab161c5279d13db4c.png

Less said about 144 the better.

GFS is hardly worth mentioning , it just looks horribly wet from now til 384 pretty much.

Its so frustrating, felt like we were building some momentum...

Perhaps EC will keep the faith.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
6 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Really trying to contain my excitement here folks ! It’s difficult because this looks the best chance all winter to get some deep cold west .

The pattern looks like being helped along by the MJO given events upstream. If we can just avoid any shortwave dramas near Greenland and give the troughing over the UK enough time to get se then that would be a big hurdle overcome .

Well if you want bringing down to earth with a bump Nick, get up at 5am to check out the 00z runs....why oh why are the overnight runs constantly a load of crud (longer term) after the previous days optermism..happens day after day! Oh, well, boss will be pleased ill be in early!

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looked so promising at 120

 

image.thumb.png.9f0e5167f3bc797ab161c5279d13db4c.png

Less said about 144 the better.

GFS is hardly worth mentioning , it just looks horribly wet from now til 384 pretty much.

Its so frustrating, felt like we were building some momentum...

Perhaps EC will keep the faith.

If your after a snowy battle ground then ukmo is just the ticket. 

Gfs is vile, low pressure systems sat very slightly west of the UK bringing south westerly winds the entire run. 

UKMO is good, not massively cold but snowy with sliders 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Have you just looked at the GFS and UKMO ops though or all the guidance?, rest is good, GEFS are a stonker.

 

Thats good to hear mate.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

If your after a snowy battle ground then ukmo is just the ticket. 

Gfs is vile, low pressure systems sat very slightly west of the UK bringing south westerly winds the entire run. 

UKMO is good, not massively cold but snowy with sliders 

Feb just said GEFS look good..

Fingers crossed the op is rogue..

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Feb just said GEFS look good..

Fingers crossed the op is rogue..

Control as an example. Not the coldest by any means. 

A12EB41B-6D12-4123-BCBA-DB27ACD567D2.png

3624F6D6-4AAD-47B8-BD7C-2E44974881EE.png

F2FCD06E-DEBD-4C66-99A2-2696E01D82DB.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Feb just said GEFS look good..

Fingers crossed the op is rogue..

the GEFS scream battlegrounds galore to me but not of the slushy type, lots of Easterlies in also although some with not great uppers admittedly

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