Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Tamara]

1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

I had to read your post a couple of times, Tamara and thank you for replying. I do think that the real advance of coming to terms with how tropical responses can affect longer term mid latitude outcomes depends upon being able to make structured forecasts (not punts) on the tropical base states. Otherwise we can become experts at retrospectively analysing tropical events but useless at forecasting based on these events. Surely, the reason in understanding GLAAM, and responses to these events is to give us a stronger capability to forecast further ahead than we would ordinarily be able to, based on them. If we can’t then is there any point? I suspect that it make take some time and a number of years before this is possible, but it would be great for someone who has such great knowledge to be able to move us towards that next stage forward.

And as you know, as you were analysing the Jan 2009 SSW response we were fortunate to get the immediate response from the split vortex but longer term underlying tropical imprints may have overridden the strat in prolonging the response. So much to learn, and I look forward to the day when you feel more confident to predict the mid latitude response to tropical events to a specific outcome.

It was you who asked me to push the boundaries to paraphrase your own words as if it was a life changing decision (which it clearly isn't because it is a discussion with strangers about the weather) and to make 'a punt' - and I did, did I not? Even if the request seemed a little surplus to requirements from what had already been said and it smacked of some kind of fishing expedition - which this latest reply demonstrates it indeed was. You turn around the last chance saloon request of a 'punt' into a volte face and talk about structured answers - which I actually gave.... Even if it wasn't the response you were, self evidently, looking for..

I am not under (your) self appointed examiner rules to 'feel more confident to predict the mid latitude response to tropical events to a specific outcome'.  Perhaps you need to read my post a couple of times more, (and some), and try to respectfully understand the point it was making because I tried to genuinely respond to your own question today of a few days back and took the time to do so when, frankly, I have much better things to concern me than pandering to a chionophile who in essence wants a structured punt to tell him its going to get cold and snow....

I now (equally genuinely) wish I hadn't bothered. Boa noite.

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Tamara

[Allseasons-Si]

The parra hasn't opened it's shoot yet,...no pun intended

oh! it's just jumped out of the plane.

[Griff]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The parra hasn't opened it's shoot yet,...no pun intended

oh! it's just jumped out of the plane.

GFS op is on very long finals... 

[Mike Poole]

Only one way from here on GFS pub run T240:

And it is cold

[WINTRY WALES]

Bit harsh Tamara...I thought it was a constructive response by Chino to your reply

[Griff]

Nearly

[nick sussex]

Not the fireworks so far of the 12hrs run but the same overall pattern .

Looking upstream that big amplified wave moving east helps to lock onto the PV near Greenland and pull that further nw.

Edited January 26, 2021 by nick sussex

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS op is on very long finals... 

The gfs has stumbled upon a hurdle(no surprise) and just missed the medals

[Vikos]

So much snow!!! Love that Narnia charts!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Not the fireworks so far of the 12hrs run but the same overall pattern .

Looking upstream that big amplified wave moving east helps to lock into the PV near Greenland and pull that further nw.

The bonfire just been lit though, watch the high expanding in size - fireworks in a minute!!

[ICE COLD]

Gets there in the end just slower than the 12z

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. I pull teeth a lot quicker than the GFS!

Are you a dentist?

[Griff]

Bit marginal, good night! 

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Tamara said:

It was you who asked me to push the boundaries to paraphrase your own words as if it was a life changing decision (which it clearly isn't because it is a discussion with strangers about the weather) and to make 'a punt' - and I did, did I not? Even if the that request seemed a little surplus to requirements from what had already been said and it smacked of some kind of fishing expedition - which this latest reply demonstrates it indeed was. You turn around the last chance saloon request of a 'punt' into a volte face and talk about structured answers - which I actually gave.... Even if it wasn't the response you were, self evidently, looking for..

I am not under (your) self appointed examiner rules to 'feel more confident to predict the mid latitude response to tropical events to a specific outcome'.  Perhaps you need to read my post a couple of times more, (and some), and try to respectfully understand the point it was making because I tried to genuinely respond to your own question today of a few days back and took the time to do so when, frankly, I have much better things to concern me than pandering to a chionophile who in essence wants a structured punt to tell him its going to get cold and snow....

I now (equally genuinely) wish I hadn't bothered. Boa noite.

 

Lol. What makes you think I am chionophile? I was under the impression that your reply was inconclusive regarding mid latitude outcomes and I sincerely apologise if that was not the case. 

[nick sussex]

Really trying to contain my excitement here folks ! It’s difficult because this looks the best chance all winter to get some deep cold west .

The pattern looks like being helped along by the MJO given events upstream. If we can just avoid any shortwave dramas near Greenland and give the troughing over the UK enough time to get se then that would be a big hurdle overcome .

[ICE COLD]

Liking the way this is going . Good trends today for heights north of the UK. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs just holds on to that Olympic torch but by Christ it was painful...

[Hotspur62]

I enjoy your posts Tamara even if they go well over my head but think you are being a bit harsh on Chino there.just my opinion mind.

 

onto the models and as has been the case so much volatility and you just cannot look past 5 days atm.Favourite still favours the north espicially Scotland to see wintry weather and looks pretty wet over next 5 days in the South.

stay safe people

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T270 and this is the real deal cold:

[Matt H]

Definitely beats the poor attempt at an easterly earlier in the month. No messing around with marginal uppers this time if things go our way!

[Vikos]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T270 and this is the real deal cold:

Does this look (a bit) familiar to you?

[Lord Grogon]

33 minutes ago, Tamara said:

It was you who asked me to push the boundaries to paraphrase your own words as if it was a life changing decision (which it clearly isn't because it is a discussion with strangers about the weather) and to make 'a punt' - and I did, did I not? Even if the request seemed a little surplus to requirements from what had already been said and it smacked of some kind of fishing expedition - which this latest reply demonstrates it indeed was. You turn around the last chance saloon request of a 'punt' into a volte face and talk about structured answers - which I actually gave.... Even if it wasn't the response you were, self evidently, looking for..

I am not under (your) self appointed examiner rules to 'feel more confident to predict the mid latitude response to tropical events to a specific outcome'.  Perhaps you need to read my post a couple of times more, (and some), and try to respectfully understand the point it was making because I tried to genuinely respond to your own question today of a few days back and took the time to do so when, frankly, I have much better things to concern me than pandering to a chionophile who in essence wants a structured punt to tell him its going to get cold and snow....

I now (equally genuinely) wish I hadn't bothered. Boa noite.

 

This may be deleted.

It’s a shame you two can’t get along. I’ve only been on this site recently and from what I see you two are two of the most intelligent posters here. Engaging in a mature debate should be possible surely for everyone’s benefit.

Then again, I’ve managed to get (nearly) the most recommends the last 2 nights by posting stupid comments so maybe a good bun fight is what the masses want. Secretly though, all I want to know if it may snow in Upminster sometime soon which I’m sure you guys are far more likely to know than I.

Stay safe 

LG

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Lord Grogon

[Purga]

Good old pub run.

 

Hangover in the morning no doubt.

To be fair it does square with the METO update today..

Edited January 26, 2021 by Purga

[ICE COLD]

A closer look at some proper uppers over the UK

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Lord Grogon said:

This may be deleted.

It’s a shame you two can’t get along. I’ve only been on this site recently and from what I see you two are two of the most intelligent posters on this site. Engaging in a mature debate should be possible surely for everyone’s benefit.

Then again, I’ve managed to get (nearly) the most recommends the last 2 nights by posting stupid comments so maybe a good bun fight is what the masses want. Secretly though, all I want to know if it may snow in Upminster sometime soon which I’m sure you guys are far more likely to know than I.

Stay safe 

LG

 

If any of the last 2 GFS runs verify, most definitely yes!