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Model output discussion 24/01/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Mr.B Contributor

Mr.B

Posted
  • Location: Bisley, Surrey (41m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, big storms and extreme weather
  • Location: Bisley, Surrey (41m ASL)
Posted
23 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

It’s part of a special group of painfully frustrating terms including:

Uncertainty

Battleground

Midlands North

Downgrade

Pesky shortwave

Dew points too high

Usually correct south

Still waiting for the effects of the SSW.

Phasing issue

 

You forgot the M4!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mr.B said:

You forgot the M4!

And don't forget the infamous 'westward correction'?:santa-emoji:

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

The gfs also disrupts the low further SE just like the ICON...

18z 120 v's 12z 126

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.ea74dfb48186899822bacea62326a3a7.pnggfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.16ad37c464aea68d1f7370196255eddd.png

Edit:it's also more amplified NE states,this is where the amplification comes from in the Atlantic later in the run.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GFS 18z T108 compared to 12z at T114:

26DC2C49-D16C-4138-8413-54FEF420FC83.thumb.png.5d80fed1edb217ec0b3befa8d8a9fcee.png24A388CB-CC5F-488A-BCE2-C1F96E0035CF.thumb.jpeg.8117513f5e9dc74a34939edecc209472.jpeg

This one isn’t going under, it has blown up and there is no wedge for it to go under (it was better on the 12z but still didn’t undercut).  I think, however, the undercut is actually the more likely outcome at this timescale and the run has gone wrong earlier.  

Edit, this post is total nonsense, see @Allseasons-si post above, it only I’d waited a couple of frames!! It still doesn’t go under, but my point above was largely wrong!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z T108 compared to 12z at T114:

26DC2C49-D16C-4138-8413-54FEF420FC83.thumb.png.5d80fed1edb217ec0b3befa8d8a9fcee.png24A388CB-CC5F-488A-BCE2-C1F96E0035CF.thumb.jpeg.8117513f5e9dc74a34939edecc209472.jpeg

This one isn’t going under, it has blown up and there is no wedge for it to go under (it was better on the 12z but still didn’t undercut).  I think, however, the undercut is actually the more likely outcome at this timescale and the run has gone wrong earlier.  

Mike run it a few frames,it's a patch better than the 12z.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Mike run it a few frames,it's a patch better than the 12z.

Yeah, I’ve just edited my post . 

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z ever so slightly moves towards ecm!!we know whats gona happen on the 00zs dont we

Well thats the 00zs for ya!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z ever so slightly moves towards ecm!!we know whats gona happen on the 00zs dont we

Nah, this is going to be grand

gfsnh-0-162.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS 18z T168, and the combination of the amplification upstream and the wedge is causing trough disruption and the lows tracking NW-SE.  Good holding pattern this but I think the eventual outcome will be a scandi high.  

3A98C033-329E-4DDB-95A8-18E1BAE5CD9E.thumb.jpeg.24bdb2ffc790e79f6d7a75fa0b98cbee.jpeg

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Lower heights into NW Europe isn't a bad thing on this run...

18z 174 v's 12z 180.

gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.9d1b4bd5ab2b845d437d2a2338eec06e.pnggfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.dd86cb90ccb884472e094e542a43b4fb.png

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Lol. Pub run looks like it may have found a boozer avoiding the lockdown. Looks like Atlantic block heading to Greenland. Is MJO aligning with SSW?

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Watch it all unfold from 192...

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The trough extension nw towards Greenland is something we want to avoid .

Its a race against time to get the pattern sufficiently se before any phasing takes place with residual shortwave energy off southern Greenland .

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. Pub run looks like it may have found a boozer avoiding the lockdown. Looks like Atlantic block heading to Greenland. Is MJO aligning with SSW?

God we hope so C!!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Watch it all unfold from 192...

 

Do you mean 'unravel', Si?:drunk-emoji:

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Watch it all unfold from 192...

 

Yeah it's broke away from the PV segment to our NW hasn't it, that's what I've been looking at too

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. Pub run looks like it may have found a boozer avoiding the lockdown. Looks like Atlantic block heading to Greenland. Is MJO aligning with SSW?

Can’t see it into Greenland, Scandi looks more likely to me, with brief Azores link up, we will see...

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Looks like angle of amplification is heading towards potent NEasterly. Maybe. Perhaps.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Can’t see it into Greenland, Scandi looks more likely to me, with brief Azores link up, we will see...

Yep. Agreed. But not the full Scandinavia block. Even better if inclination is favourable 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The trough extension nw towards Greenland is something we want to avoid .

Its a race against time to get the pattern sufficiently se before any phasing takes place with residual shortwave energy off southern Greenland .

Should be ok on this run Nick although yes, very hazardous!, lets hope in reality when it comes to T0 we are talking about wintry hazards and not hazards leading to non-winter!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Oh dear I'm a bit premature... Better give it a couple more frames.

gfsnh-0-216.png

gfsnh-1-216.png

The tension is killing me  

Edited by Griff
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Lol. I pull teeth a lot quicker than the GFS!

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