Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Well, kind of resignation. The candle of opportunity is slowly dying, days get longer, and the models are playing the delaying game. I could kick myself for that i got sucked into the thrill of hunting d10 bfte charts, again.

I know it frustrating but don't give up hope it could change 

[Blessed Weather]

Better news about MJO progression this week with NOAA Climate Prediction Centre reporting:

The RMM index indicates the intraseasonal signal has become better organized with an increase in amplitude over the western Pacific (phases 6 and 7) during the past week. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast.......... However, dynamical models continue to favor a MJO event strengthening over the West Pacific during late Week-1 or early Week-2.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Both GEFS and ECM Ensemble now showing a moderate strength Phase 7 progression in early February:

GEFS  ECM

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

The CFS Outgoing Longwave Radiation forecast supports the tropical disturbance moving into the Western Pacific, particularly into the critical Kelvin-Rossby wave generation area (roughly from 120E to 120W) that will propagate the MJO impact across the NH:

Source:https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

The Phase 7 February composite with Nina background has the following NH pattern. So if the MJO forecasts hold, we should be seeing some interesting charts in the model output as we enter February.

 

Source: https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Edited January 26, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Link to composite added

[goosey007]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

BBC use the ECM from 12 hours previous for their forecasts. I know some disagree every time I say this but if you look at their graphics they are 100% generated by the the ECM.  I haven’t seen the recent forecast but below is yesterday’s 12z ECM for Sat and I would bet my house it matches what BBC will be saying right now...

Yes Tim also matches there website graphics tool .....

[Cloud 10]

384 hrs from the GFS p worth posting for shock and awe.

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

25 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

If there is a another SSW and a split of the vortex, taking into account the lag time, does this mean the CFS could be close to the mark for an historically cold March? I can’t recall who posted charts previously of this, but assume it could be a real possibility 

Going by recent times March has to be favourite for everything to fall into place for a bitter spell

[Battleground Snow]

15 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

384 hrs from the GFS p worth posting for shock and awe.

 

Thanks for this, I think it was delayed this morning.

Charts were a bit deflating this morning other than the gem and para, which remains a pretty cold run throughout.

Good update from @Blessed Weather above too,

Nothing is set in stone past 72, which is what always keeps us coming back for more!

Edited January 26, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Dacyfo]

2 hours ago, Drifter said:

Yes, another fantastic GEM. Is there any chance it has got the upcoming pattern nailed? 

No!

 

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, Dacyfo said:

No!

 

There is always a chance no matter how slim 1% , 2% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20% etc ....lets see 

[minus10]

Hi, first time post in here. Long time lurker. Can someone explain why the Gem and Para keep putting out 'cold' charts against the general trend of other models. If they are proving to  always be wrong then what is the point of them. I dont understand it. Surely the data they use and the way it is processed cant be that different to the others?

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

There is always a chance no matter how slim 1% , 2% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20% etc ....lets see 

I would say it's an increasing chance based on the latest GFS which has moved to gem, Atlantic looks to blast through still though.

 

[MJB]

Sunday Snow from GFS 6z 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Hi, first time post in here. Long time lurker. Can someone explain why the Gem and Para keep putting out 'cold' charts against the general trend of other models. If they are proving to  always be wrong then what is the point of them. I dont understand it. Surely the data they use and the way it is processed cant be that different to the others?

It's quite a fine margin between whether the lows disrupt to our south east or not, models generally struggle when the Atlantic comes up to a cold air mass over the UK. They are all possible outcomes based on the observation data which is fed into them.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Lampostwatcher]

6z going for wide spread snow this Sunday ❄❄

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I would say it's an increasing chance based on the latest GFS which has moved to gem, Atlantic looks to blast through still though.

 

Yep. As I mused yesterday we continue to nickle and dim at the local micro level in the short term.  Ironically med term is more certain with Atlantic coming in and setting the scene for next week as broader macro events take precedence..

[Blizzardof82]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

6z going for wide spread snow this Sunday ❄❄

Transient though and quickly turns to rain.

[Frank Trough]

 

big differences between 06z and 00z GFS for sunday at midday. I guess this is definitely a live issue and one to watch especially after GEM this morning. 

[Drifter]

Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

Transient though and quickly turns to rain.

Plenty of time for that to change this week. Every bit of ‘tilt’ on the low prolongs the snow. 

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Transient though and quickly turns to rain.

Define quickly ? GFS shows 6 hours ( approx ) ,  here in Banbury we had 10cm's on Sunday in about 1hr 45 minutes ,............ not saying that if it snows this Sunday coming we are in for 30cm 

126h

132h

It then fragments in the South and gets messy 

Edited January 26, 2021 by MJB

[Snowmaggedon]

14 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Hi, first time post in here. Long time lurker. Can someone explain why the Gem and Para keep putting out 'cold' charts against the general trend of other models. If they are proving to  always be wrong then what is the point of them. I dont understand it. Surely the data they use and the way it is processed cant be that different to the others?

Because they are coldies like the rest of us. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

5 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

 

big differences between 06z and 00z GFS for sunday at midday. I guess this is definitely a live issue and one to watch especially after GEM this morning. 

A fantastic trend we need to see manifested in the 12z. 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Para is putting up an even stronger fight.

 

[Drifter]

I’ve seen enough of the 6z op and // to show 96hrs is the limit to be looking at this morning and snowy surprises could pop up at short notice. 

[Griff]

GFS and parallel at 102

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:

What??

Too much volatility in the model output 

[Jason H]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I’ve seen enough of the 6z op and // to show 96hrs is the limit to be looking at this morning and snowy surprises could pop up at short notice. 

Snow chances at the weekend, ushered away sharpish by the Atlantic. Then what?