Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Troubleatmill]

So which is better GEM or GFS? Gem is better short term but how long would it last? GFS rubbish short term but nirvana further ahead but its way out in FI...mmmm 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

T144 UKMO 0z

 

t144 12z

core of the LP not going head to N of Scotland like ECM.  Its not disrupting yet but it will go E or SE wards.  

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 25, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

Ooh, ahh!        A tad marginal, though!

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The Parra froze for a bit but it is running again,...trough disruption at 144...

It's desperately trying to keep the trough back, but I think it may just fail unlike the gem did. Steps in the right direction though.

Been at better day so far. Awaiting ECM with interest.

[Chesil View]

Stunning gfs as always out in la la land. Meanwhile in the slightly more reliable the Meto have the channel low back in play for this weekend.

[Matt Jones]

3 minutes ago, claret047 said:

To the more learned on here is there a way to calculate the temperature at ground level, should we ever be fortunate enough to have -24 @ 850 as currently shown on the charts to our northeast well into FI? I like to dream!

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

 

Looks like -15 at best into the SE corner, those mega cold uppers rarely make it across the North Sea, even from that set up relatively dry here in NE lincs.

[Allseasons-Si]

"WHAT A CHART",...NH wise

Edited January 25, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

"WHAT A CHART"

Look at what's ready to drop as well.. 

Mega cold would ensue. 

All hypothetical btw, but it's nice to dream. 

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Look at what's ready to drop as well.. 

Mega cold would ensue. 

All hypothetical btw, but it's nice to dream. 

Wouldn't it be funny if it had a load of support ............................................sadly I doubt it 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs short ens and look at some of them getting down to -7's/-8's by the weekend.

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gefs short ens and look at some of them getting down to -7's/-8's by the weekend.

Probably worth just pointing out that they are for Sheffield. Not that there is anything wrong with that 

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Probably worth just pointing out that they are for Sheffield. Not that there is anything wrong with that 

London isn't so pretty. 

[Snowman.]

Control begins to disrupt more SE, doesnt do much now but it may be creeping into the models perhaps?

[Allseasons-Si]

I reckon the Parra might have a Stella run from here with Griceland heights building ...

 

[Snowman.]

The mean is a pretty big upgrade if you ask me.

12z    6z 

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I reckon the Parra might have a Stella run from here with Griceland heights building ...

 

Cold to the NE waiting 

[Troubleatmill]

24 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gefs short ens and look at some of them getting down to -7's/-8's by the weekend.

Out of interest, looking at the short GEM ensembles for Preston (mid UK like Sheffield) there is bizarre scatter from tomorrow

[Griff]

GFS and parallel both support wintry nirvana in FI... Must be happening

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, Beano said:

Out of interest, looking at the short GEM ensembles for Preston (mid UK like Sheffield) there is bizarre scatter from tomorrow

If you follow the colder runs you will see they rise eventually, just a difference in timing with the front / transition to milder. 
 

looking at the longer ensembles we would be very unlucky not to be cold in 2 weeks time. Before that we have a cold snap this weekend with some snow in the east

[Uncertainty]

Looks like a mean easterly later on the GEFS, would correlate with the signal on the 12z op and para. We had this signal a few days back so let’s see if it sticks on the next few runs...

[Vikos]

  =

[Matt H]

I hope that p6 is on the money this afternoon.It’s not hard to find it on the ensemble graph though unfortunately.

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Weather Boy]

10 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Looks like a mean easterly later on the GEFS, would correlate with the signal on the 12z op and para. We had this signal a few days back so let’s see if it sticks on the next few runs...

Do you mean 'mean' as in average, or 'mean' as in evil? Or...both?

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

I hope that p6 is on the money on this afternoon.It’s not hard to find it on the ensemble graph unfortunately.

 

is that quite unusual to see possible solutions ranging from +5 to nearly - 5 on the 850s at around 72 hours hence?

[MJB]

The OP certainly has support in GEFS for something from the E and NE