Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Harsh Climate]

I don't now what the Aprege eu is drinking, but I want some! 

 

 

[Vikos]

Well, is this the closest we get to somekind of a PV-Split? If EC does not deliver...

 

[jules216]

My first mediteranean low tonight since 13.01.2017 Wish me luck. local model gives me 21mm

Bottle of wine ready to celebrate. a long long wait finally over

[winterof79]

 

 

Arpege might have had too much sauce

Edited January 24, 2021 by winterof79

[Griff]

Ecm vs gem 72

[Kentspur]

Are these GFS snow depth charts purely cannon fodder? Ensembles adamant on a dusting this evening, what's the likelihood of the band bringing a little settling snow for those that have missed out?

Edited January 24, 2021 by Kentspur

[Griff]

Ecm 120

FYI gem

Edited January 24, 2021 by Griff

[Mike Poole]

Wedge slider scenario on ECM at just T120:

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM probably gets the mild air just north of the Scottish border before it starts to push back south again.

Interesting day 5, very close to the GEM output so a deepening low across the south with cold air cutting into the northern flank.

[That ECM]

Nice. So hard to forecast at the moment.

Edited January 24, 2021 by That ECM

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144 yeah!!!

[Griff]

144  

Edit: what a bunch of nerds we are

Edited January 24, 2021 by Griff

[Allseasons-Si]

The Ecm at 144,...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm liking the ECM so far..Gem also a treat..Me and the dog really studying the models tonight...got our serious heads on..

Edited January 24, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Tim Bland]

Not as widespread as last run but the theme of some snow on the northern edge of that low next weekend is still there ...

[nick sussex]

Too much energy spilling east towards Iceland .

Only way to save this now is for the wedge to be cut off with energy heading se to the west of the UK at day 7.

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144 yeah!!!

As I’m quite new still leaning what sort of weather could uk expect looking at this chart thanks..

[Climate Man]

1 minute ago, Scandinavian High. said:

As I’m quite new still leaning what sort of weather could uk expect looking at this chart thanks..

Snow, streamers off North Sea, coast and a good way inland on that strength of wind.

[Allseasons-Si]

Here they all are at 144...

they all have some sort of wedge to our north

=

 

[Griff]

Demand a recount at 168, I preferred the previous run

[Mike Poole]

Snow in the south, though marginal should be the right side of marginal, snow showers in the east.  But only transient, as @nick sussex says, this one will not sustain.  But the general pattern will throw up more opportunities into Feb.  

Edit , sorry that was in response to @Scandinavian High. post, forgot to quote it, D’oh!

Edited January 24, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Troubleatmill]

Not liking the look of the NH profile at 192, that PV looks to be getting reorganized

Edited January 24, 2021 by Beano

[northwestsnow]

EC is horrible.

Atlantic on steroids.. 

[joggs]

Just now, Beano said:

Not liking the look of the NH profile at 192, that PV looks to be getting reorganized

That is not a organised pv. Cards just not falling for UK if its proper cold you want.

[nick sussex]

We need more elevation to the wedge at day 6 .

The ECM phases the upstream low with that shortwave west of Iceland but as opposed to the GEM the phasing action doesn’t pull that more nw . If it did you’d have the better elevated wedge.

At day 8 it’s now going downhill .

However this is vastly different to the east compared to the earlier run. The models are making a pigs ear of the current set up so rather than be too disappointed at tonight’s ECM op run I think the best thing is to just accept they’re a bit clueless at the moment !

Edited January 24, 2021 by nick sussex