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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Didn't realise it was the para Griff was posting.... but still seeing as its late im joining in.. 🙂

    spacer.png

    Both gfs op and para have interest in FI, worth a look through each run before they evaporate in the morning 😉

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    The Atlantic shall not pass at 336

     

    gfsnh-0-336.png

    😂😂😂

    gfsnh-1-336.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The para in deep in FI is pretty incredible.  Enjoy it, it will be gone in 6 hours!

    image.thumb.png.8c0f8e6b44ec2078445c866ec547aab6.pngimage.thumb.png.e09939eb199530d04ebc2f786d5c9c83.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Always said the GFS Parallel was by far the best model...

    image.thumb.png.dc553f180c6ef647ce91e52d5d933578.pngimage.thumb.png.b30d30629c068c6d62a8c64ed9b1eae7.png

    😎

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    The deepest darkest reaches of Fantasy island. Whats the Lottery phrase? 'Maybe, just maybe'

    (on second thoughts Id prob be moaning that its to cold out hahaha)

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes, for anyone in doubt about what a cold spell looks like - look at the 18z para, that FI run is what a proper cold spell looks like, then look back on the re-analysis charts on N.C.E.P of earlier this winter and most cold spells since 2013 that have verified (2018 excepted) and they are pathetic feeble attempts at a cold spell, spot the difference? - see the sub 520 heights with 1015mb contour powering through the country, temperatures in the day significantly minus, and widely double digit minuses in clear skies.

    If this has any chance, even 1%, then the signs were showing around 180 hours... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

    If only this came off that would produce some huge amounts of snow for the snow desert of the south west south south east please for once let this tick down to 0 🤞

    7B38F617-45FC-458D-A592-F06DBA0A566D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    If this has any chance, even 1%, then the signs were showing around 180 hours... 

    lets just hope even a few ens get at least somewhere near it so it isn't a complete outlier by a country mile.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    If this has any chance, even 1%, then the signs were showing around 180 hours... 

    I don't think height rises around scandi are out of the question, probably not as extreme as the para is showing.

    Let's see if the mjo can make it to 6 and 7 later this week.

    The article @Blessed Weather shared earlier regarding la nina should make us remain very cautious of the forecast,

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    MJO edges into 7 in the next few days.

    Hopefully it will do that?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The control run looks interesting as it did on the 12z in fl,...yes fl but we are starting to see this across the long range NWP's now,number crunching starts from now😜

    gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.fc6f63bbcc6270f4ad329ff737314315.pnggensnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.70eafbf14a3cd3183a8b246c82f2fc74.png

    gefs ens,..heading down as we go into Feb.

    graphe3_10000_265_30___.thumb.png.e31947e77d3ce270face17ff8d9e0548.png

     

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    I cannot recall seeing such crazy synoptic patterns in a long time - probably more fantastic than any of the charts drawn up by snow mad members when they were little nippers as some were reminiscing the other night. 
    Reasons not to happen:- Azores high in Iberia, too much Atlantic energy, MJO unreliable, our crud luck.......

    At least the charts brought a smile

    gfsnh-0-276.png.8298d424e3be78a108d312d8b0016a55.png

    gfsnh-0-252.png.908678702d269a95cb69516d3c52a4ce.png

    gfs-0-336.png

    Edited by Cavehill Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    11 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    I cannot recall seeing such crazy synoptic patterns in a long time - probably more fantastic than any of the charts drawn up by snow mad members when they were little nippers as some were reminiscing the other night. 
    Reasons not to happen:- Azores high in Iberia, too much Atlantic energy, MJO unreliable, our crud luck.......

    At least the charts brought a smile

    gfsnh-0-276.png.8298d424e3be78a108d312d8b0016a55.png

    gfsnh-0-252.png.908678702d269a95cb69516d3c52a4ce.png

    gfs-0-336.png

    IT looks as though the ssw downwelling is now being shown properly 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS and the parallel still generally trending the right way in the mid term with sliders although UKMO not so keen.

    GFSp manages a boom chart by day 10 as the sliders encourage height rises to the North.

    gfsnh-0-240.png

     

    It would be great to see ECM follow and last nights output was more encouraging than today's UKMO

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    GFS and the parallel still generally trending the right way in the mid term with sliders although UKMO not so keen.

    GFSp manages a boom chart by day 10 as the sliders encourage height rises to the North.

    gfsnh-0-240.png

     

    It would be great to see ECM follow and last nights output was more encouraging than today's UKMO

    The OP a bit more interesting at 300 too.

     

    gfsnh-0-300 (2).png

    gfsnh-1-300.png

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