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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Well it's a strange looking chart at 216 - not a million miles from the ECM earlier

    image.thumb.png.9b64980a28e81675105e952f79d58da3.png

    Looks like things are slowing down across the Atlantic? 

    I'll definitely get roasted for this, although not cold // starting to look mashable (?) in FI 😂

    gfsnh-0-198.png

    Edit: for what it's worth, and possibly meaningless, para looks vaguely consistent... Not quite as amplified as 12z

    Edited by Griff
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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    This run feels similar to the current period of weather, ensembles signal a return to milder weather but the mild spell actually dilutes and back into cold quickly. It has been rinse and repeat here since xmas eve with days of frost and occasional snow then a day or two warm up and i feel that is where much of the northern half of the uk is headed again. 

    Currently snowing here unexpectedly and meto putting out a warning once the snow had started so perhaps the weekend worth attention as a nice feature keeps showing up for Saturday.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl

    Staying wet, unfortunately 

    image.thumb.png.35a9e356f6328f4ecbfa7f71ec32ce7f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    31 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    That'll do for an early Sunday morning walk..

    spacer.png

    And me!  Hoping to see some of the white stuff this weekend but not getting excited yet.  Lots of wind and rain in the meantime....

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp doing it’s best to send those under Iberian heights packing ...

    3C47E86E-A91C-4BD6-A0A5-45AAB91C47EF.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Pun run FI special....

    FDAD182A-E403-4946-8B6E-CCFA669AB0D5.png

    84997157-030A-4DFE-9040-2049463A5F76.png

    4EDF7F07-505C-4507-8C89-27D28FBDD101.png

    As is gfs op

    gfsnh-0-276.png

    gfsnh-1-276.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Am I the only one looking at the charts tonight and thinking we could be in for some major flooding misery? Looks like low after low to me, and them slowing down won't do much to help the situation! It'll just rain for longer!

    No, flooding certainly does look to be an issue.  Viewing the models this time last week and you would have thought amber weather warnings this week would have been for something else.....

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Am I the only one looking at the charts tonight and thinking we could be in for some major flooding misery? Looks like low after low to me, and them slowing down won't do much to help the situation! It'll just rain for longer!

    Yep, January is going to be a wet month that’s for sure! Could be white at times but it will all end up in the rivers at some point !

    F568587A-9B8B-4D4A-9E70-763F04D982A1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Am I the only one looking at the charts tonight and thinking we could be in for some major flooding misery? Looks like low after low to me, and them slowing down won't do much to help the situation! It'll just rain for longer!

    Yep, whether it's wet or white, there's going to be a lot of precip around over the next 10 days by the look of things.  Just a few charts below from the GFSP showing a lot going on at the end of the month (not that these should be taken too seriously at this point).  

    image.thumb.png.41b170f0a6b1a5fb0a00de937a5087fc.pngimage.thumb.png.2047ac775de601e69d6bbd2b0233cc2c.pngimage.thumb.png.8e6533b0e3c79413167669f360bc478a.png  

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Very interesting GFS 18 z pub run regarding severely low Greenland Temperatures showing 

    up in fantasy island,one to watch along with a continually changing final week of January blowing 

    mild and cold.Lots to be interested in for the beginning of February and the next 5 or 6 days.

    Not a boring scenario good watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    If we can get those lows this far south then an easterly could set in...perhaps a freeze of the floodwaters will help..

    9FEB9B93-26FC-4C72-841C-CC578612763A.png

    229AFD52-6BE9-4293-8490-AB73E7D19529.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Wasn't expecting such entertainment this evening 

    gfsnh-0-276 (2).png

    gfsnh-1-276 (1).png

    Ive been saying we need a wow emoji alongside the 'thanks' and 'like' ! 🤑

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    Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    I wonder if on Sunday 31st at 8am, we will be saying 'Bloody hell, wasn't expecting such a massive dumping from a big unstable Easterly'

    In a word no

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    And i say it again only for the 00z to bring everyone back down to earth😜!!love the guys commitment on here!!!defo something to admire!!❤

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    And i say it again only for the 00z to bring everyone back down to earth😜!!love the guys commitment on here!!!defo something to admire!!❤

    We need to petition for the return of the 😂 response/like... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Didn't realise it was the para Griff was posting.... but still seeing as its late im joining in.. 🙂

    spacer.png

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