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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Well @chionomaniac and @Catacol (among others) were talking up the opportunities for something notable happening around the 20-21st of January from early this month.  Whilst the pattern is not quite what was envisaged or hoped for, it's not actually been a bad call at all.  Much of the UK is likely to see some extreme weather, with many in with a chance of  snow over the next 3-5 days.  However, still not via the deep cold that many on here crave!

    I think that we're just going to have to be patient, after the weekend we will probably have to endure a milder week or so before some potential interest in early Feb via the predicted follow up SSW with chances of a split PV

    Lot's to look forward to, but I think we're a few days away from some FI eye candy (please make me a liar GFS!!!)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Yet again, so far, the wheel of fortune where cold is released further south has eluded us. But whilst this pattern of disruption continues, there is still a chance that the wheel keeps rolling, and we can be in the firing line. ( may need the MJO to assist)

    Absolutely, if we manage to avoid at least a week of deep cold before winter is out that really would be some feat, even by the UK's lowly standards!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    Must be an overwhelming factor as why the wheel of fortune has not landed well for us in the uk (for deep cold) when such a well forecasted SSW came to fruition. Is it just to down the split failure 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

    Must be an overwhelming factor as why the wheel of fortune has not landed well for us in the uk (for deep cold) when such a well forecasted SSW came to fruition. Is it just to down the split failure 

    I think so yes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    Can someone tell me just how important the MJO is ?

    Is it a deal maker / breaker in terms of snow for us ..................where does it stand in the " must haves" against everything else we mention for a cold Winter ? 

    Might be impossible to answer 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFS looks to my confirmation bias eyes a tad more amplified... Small beginnings etc. 

    gfsnh-0-126.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think so yes.

    Eh the phasing sega of those lows is defo a main culprit. We all saw the charts when it was on our side, the initial block set-up too far away from us due to an unlucky phase whether thats because of split vs no split can be argued but sometimes its the little things that screw us.

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    That'll do for an early Sunday morning walk..

    spacer.png

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  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFS 144 loving this run, my expectations are low 😜

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    gfsnh-1-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    Eh the phasing sega of those lows is defo a maint culprit. We all saw the charts when it was on our side, the initial block set-up too far away from us due to an unlucky phase whether thats because of split vs no split can be argued but sometimes its the little things that screw us.

    I smelt a rat when that wave was still left in the Atlantic after the SSW in the upper-mid strat, knew that was trouble and thought that would transpire into Atlantic troughs at surface level, thought shortwave energy would scupper us, actually its rather larger lows than that and the Atlantic seems to have woken up,

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    GFS 144 loving this run, my expectations are low 😜

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    gfsnh-1-144.png

    Less progressive at 162.

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    She’s trying to slow it down those heights emerging to N/NW weren’t there before. 

    DD1765A2-27A5-4D50-9196-C60479C7E664.thumb.png.b15f75809d61061ba875a68cd8da7ae6.png0BEC9A20-579B-4791-88FD-DF8EB70D2F61.thumb.png.15dfadb8fabd247625ec9a01e4e34669.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    Less progressive at 162.

    spacer.png

     

    Bound to go belly up, but feels less flat 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    FYI gfs 144 vs para

    Ironically para less amplified than 12z

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    gfsnh-0-144 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    At 168 Atlantic front just edging the east coast on 18z..... was all the way too Norway on the 12z!

    18z

    spacer.png

    12z

    spacer.png

     

    Im sure the mild air will win out eventually, ensembles look set on it, but interesting too see the slowing of the eastward progression.  

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I smelt a rat when that wave was still left in the Atlantic after the SSW in the upper-mid strat, knew that was trouble and thought that would transpire into Atlantic troughs at surface level, thought shortwave energy would scupper us, actually its rather larger lows than that and the Atlantic seems to have woken up,

    We still had a ticket however, it was always a high risk one and if it did transpire we were laughing.

    But I agree a split is best but we still gave it a good shot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    37 minutes ago, MJB said:

    Can someone tell me just how important the MJO is ?

    Is it a deal maker / breaker in terms of snow for us ..................where does it stand in the " must haves" against everything else we mention for a cold Winter ? 

    Might be impossible to answer 

    MJO as it's affects for sure. In phase 5 and 6 we have some kind of blocking to our conditions, with phase 7/8 Northerly blocking with Greenland Heights become more likely, thus leading to - ve/NAO.. So colder for the UK increases.. The problem right now with the expected MJO increase to something more favourable coincides with LA Nina which could possibly be masking it somewhat. Everything is up in the air but I still feel we can get something favourable very soon. 

    Edit.. Guys... All. I'm hearing is Snow possibly in the North and the South this weekend... What about us forgotten folks in the Midlands... Can we have some please 🙏😂

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    I'll probably be shot down, but if memory serves 180 on gfs and para looking less flat than a few days ago... 

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-180 (2).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    Just now, Griff said:

    I'll probably be shot down, but if memory serves 180 on gfs and para looking less flat than a few days ago... 

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-180 (2).png

    They were indeed mate, lots more polar heights too it seems.

    Interesting lets hope it actually leads to something.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    We still had a ticket however, it was always a high risk one and if it did transpire we were laughing.

    But I agree a split is best but we still gave it a good shot.

    GFS and GEM both modeling a split at the end of the month. 

    Judah Cohen a bit concerned this evening that Europe might benefit ahead of USA... If gem is on the money. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Well it's a strange looking chart at 216 - not a million miles from the ECM earlier

    image.thumb.png.9b64980a28e81675105e952f79d58da3.png

    Looks like things are slowing down across the Atlantic? 

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