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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM showing Some snow in the south on Sun. Up to 9cm in some places...

6356B71F-59E5-4A90-9861-52B302B77F5D.jpeg

A9F977DE-EAE9-49A8-8B87-60EA6093D189.jpeg

FF312F03-CDDF-43B3-AE9A-96A229FD2B63.jpeg

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5AE6ED1D-CEBD-4DA3-AA78-65C4878366EA.jpeg

0B62A46E-5572-4E06-8E51-306BB3260F39.jpeg

Aye, keeping eye on this, hmm not too good on that one, could it be first sign of the virttually guaranteed shift south, GFS has it further north

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM showing Some snow in the south on Sun. Up to 9cm in some places...

6356B71F-59E5-4A90-9861-52B302B77F5D.jpeg

A9F977DE-EAE9-49A8-8B87-60EA6093D189.jpeg

FF312F03-CDDF-43B3-AE9A-96A229FD2B63.jpeg

40161CDD-5D29-49C3-979C-34B2338746D3.jpeg

5AE6ED1D-CEBD-4DA3-AA78-65C4878366EA.jpeg

0B62A46E-5572-4E06-8E51-306BB3260F39.jpeg

Its a fluid picture with these runners! Could be Saturday or Sunday now, and perhaps into Monday. 

Then we have the EC168 with the major Atlantic push bumping into the col air, will it make it? Some leading edge snowfall at the very least I would think.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

EC 192, messy, cold air hanging on in Scotland.

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Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Next weeks front making slower process with more leading edge snow on this run. Perhaps there’s scope for it to slow even further and dare I use the word slide?

00z Vs 12z below for 00z Weds 

DB2DF1B6-6E87-4BB0-BEC7-DC6AA9F50274.jpeg

A512F640-8E62-4F37-9E3C-B145E3E2323B.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

For me the writing is on the wall from the 144 chart, yes it’s slightly better than this mornings run but once that low is in that position in the Atlantic you aren’t going to get enough wedge of heights to disrupt enough of the energy SE, it might buy some parts of the country an extra few hours of cold uppers before the low out west helps pump that Iberian High up.

Unfortunately the models normally model heights to our south pretty well so personally I don’t see much chance of change.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Looking at the ensembles and 12z op runs it looks unlikely we can avoid a warm up for 5 days from 27th. Scope for snow in most places before then and good signals for early Feb though..

FEAD3664-3DC5-4256-ABF8-EF657114B848.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
20 minutes ago, chris55 said:

EC 192, messy, cold air hanging on in Scotland.

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I think the disruption from t168 to t192 is very interesting.   Did you expect that t192?

T216

image.thumb.gif.17453adcd145432cb5e807d0c4838c2e.gif

and t240...if this solidifies...I like it a lot

image.thumb.png.d3823c735b9a3c3edc095a21553b31be.png

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Things starting to get a bit interesting at 240 , wedge popping up near the UK and the Atlantic slowing down.

Snow opportunities for some over next 7 days, not a bad run really

 

ECH1-240 (9).gif

Perhaps a biased opinion from me, but I see a growing chance for cold weather for NW-Europe emerging around the end of January. 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

A pattern of fine margins with a lot of uncertainty past day 6.

This is a battle between the Azores high and the forcing on the pattern from the north .

The Arctic high is stronger on this run which helps to push the jet a bit further south .

Within the envelope of possible solutions once you get past day 6 the GFS annoyingly is just as plausible as the ECM because the pattern is so delicately poised. You can also make the case for a colder solution than the ECM op with a bit more trough disruption at the key timeframe .

 

I would love to see the Arctic high somewhat more to the east and sounth, because the cold air feeding low pressure at the Norwegian Sea. Preventing quicker pressure rising at Scandinavia. There is still time to improve  (it 's improved compared to this mornings run)

ECMOPNH00_192_1.png

ECMOPNH12_192_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Things starting to get a bit interesting at 240 , wedge popping up near the UK and the Atlantic slowing down.

Snow opportunities for some over next 7 days, not a bad run really

 

ECH1-240 (9).gif

How many times have things got interesting at 240 we’re no closer to the pot of gold than we’ve been at any point this far, sadly.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, but we have the MJO on side this time, well hopefully.

 

Those background signals....

 

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Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, but we have the MJO on side this time, well hopefully.

 

Wasn’t the MJO on our side yesterday...and it was ‘day 10’ potential then...shouldn’t it be day 9 now

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

I like this maps (alot)

GFS OP

GFSOPNH06_360_39.png

GFSp

GFSPARANH06_384_39.png

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, Griff said:

yes, starting to show itself!

Split? Triplit

GFSOPNH06_372_41.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

216-240z ecm two further clear examples of the limpet low stuck to the coast of Norway and keeping cold further away from the UK which has continually been occurring this January...other than that maybe some interest forming again as we head towards February? but as mentioned when are we going to see some real decent charts at under the day 7 mark?

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Just now, Froze were the Days said:

ther than that maybe some interest forming again as we head towards February?

Still no doubt about it.

A bit cherry picking, but hey, this is the models thread

 

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