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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    ECM showing Some snow in the south on Sun. Up to 9cm in some places...

    6356B71F-59E5-4A90-9861-52B302B77F5D.jpeg

    A9F977DE-EAE9-49A8-8B87-60EA6093D189.jpeg

    FF312F03-CDDF-43B3-AE9A-96A229FD2B63.jpeg

    40161CDD-5D29-49C3-979C-34B2338746D3.jpeg

    5AE6ED1D-CEBD-4DA3-AA78-65C4878366EA.jpeg

    0B62A46E-5572-4E06-8E51-306BB3260F39.jpeg

    Aye, keeping eye on this, hmm not too good on that one, could it be first sign of the virttually guaranteed shift south, GFS has it further north

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    ECM showing Some snow in the south on Sun. Up to 9cm in some places...

    6356B71F-59E5-4A90-9861-52B302B77F5D.jpeg

    A9F977DE-EAE9-49A8-8B87-60EA6093D189.jpeg

    FF312F03-CDDF-43B3-AE9A-96A229FD2B63.jpeg

    40161CDD-5D29-49C3-979C-34B2338746D3.jpeg

    5AE6ED1D-CEBD-4DA3-AA78-65C4878366EA.jpeg

    0B62A46E-5572-4E06-8E51-306BB3260F39.jpeg

    Its a fluid picture with these runners! Could be Saturday or Sunday now, and perhaps into Monday. 

    Then we have the EC168 with the major Atlantic push bumping into the col air, will it make it? Some leading edge snowfall at the very least I would think.

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC 192, messy, cold air hanging on in Scotland.

    spacer.png

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Next weeks front making slower process with more leading edge snow on this run. Perhaps there’s scope for it to slow even further and dare I use the word slide?

    00z Vs 12z below for 00z Weds 

    DB2DF1B6-6E87-4BB0-BEC7-DC6AA9F50274.jpeg

    A512F640-8E62-4F37-9E3C-B145E3E2323B.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    For me the writing is on the wall from the 144 chart, yes it’s slightly better than this mornings run but once that low is in that position in the Atlantic you aren’t going to get enough wedge of heights to disrupt enough of the energy SE, it might buy some parts of the country an extra few hours of cold uppers before the low out west helps pump that Iberian High up.

    Unfortunately the models normally model heights to our south pretty well so personally I don’t see much chance of change.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Looking at the ensembles and 12z op runs it looks unlikely we can avoid a warm up for 5 days from 27th. Scope for snow in most places before then and good signals for early Feb though..

    FEAD3664-3DC5-4256-ABF8-EF657114B848.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    20 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    EC 192, messy, cold air hanging on in Scotland.

    spacer.png

    I think the disruption from t168 to t192 is very interesting.   Did you expect that t192?

    T216

    image.thumb.gif.17453adcd145432cb5e807d0c4838c2e.gif

    and t240...if this solidifies...I like it a lot

    image.thumb.png.d3823c735b9a3c3edc095a21553b31be.png

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Things starting to get a bit interesting at 240 , wedge popping up near the UK and the Atlantic slowing down.

    Snow opportunities for some over next 7 days, not a bad run really

     

    ECH1-240 (9).gif

    Perhaps a biased opinion from me, but I see a growing chance for cold weather for NW-Europe emerging around the end of January. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    A pattern of fine margins with a lot of uncertainty past day 6.

    This is a battle between the Azores high and the forcing on the pattern from the north .

    The Arctic high is stronger on this run which helps to push the jet a bit further south .

    Within the envelope of possible solutions once you get past day 6 the GFS annoyingly is just as plausible as the ECM because the pattern is so delicately poised. You can also make the case for a colder solution than the ECM op with a bit more trough disruption at the key timeframe .

     

    I would love to see the Arctic high somewhat more to the east and sounth, because the cold air feeding low pressure at the Norwegian Sea. Preventing quicker pressure rising at Scandinavia. There is still time to improve 😉 (it 's improved compared to this mornings run)

    ECMOPNH00_192_1.png

    ECMOPNH12_192_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Things starting to get a bit interesting at 240 , wedge popping up near the UK and the Atlantic slowing down.

    Snow opportunities for some over next 7 days, not a bad run really

     

    ECH1-240 (9).gif

    How many times have things got interesting at 240 😀 we’re no closer to the pot of gold than we’ve been at any point this far, sadly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    How many times have things got interesting at 240 😀 we’re no closer to the pot of gold than we’ve been at any point this far, sadly.

    Yes, but we have the MJO on side this time, well hopefully.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Yes, but we have the MJO on side this time, well hopefully.

     

    Those background signals.... 😎

     

    spacer.png

    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Yes, but we have the MJO on side this time, well hopefully.

     

    Wasn’t the MJO on our side yesterday...and it was ‘day 10’ potential then...shouldn’t it be day 9 now 🤔🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    UKV for Sat :

    049D5471-9E82-4AD8-B66E-5D270F72B20C.png

    6F2649EC-916B-4AB9-AF65-871786C9B2A8.png

    FD14C196-1666-444A-BAD1-6A0093E125FA.png
    and then Sun 769E2A36-F7F5-4A74-98DE-31DC7ADD8DD6.thumb.png.2e93d4316e20f1dd43ab6fa165d0ec82.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    I like this maps (alot)

    GFS OP

    GFSOPNH06_360_39.png

    GFSp

    GFSPARANH06_384_39.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    I like this maps (alot)

    GFS OP

    GFSOPNH06_360_39.png!

    GFSp

    GFSPARANH06_384_39.png

    yes, starting to show itself!

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    yes, starting to show itself!

    Split? Triplit 😄

    GFSOPNH06_372_41.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    216-240z ecm two further clear examples of the limpet low stuck to the coast of Norway and keeping cold further away from the UK which has continually been occurring this January...other than that maybe some interest forming again as we head towards February? but as mentioned when are we going to see some real decent charts at under the day 7 mark?

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    Just now, Froze were the Days said:

    ther than that maybe some interest forming again as we head towards February?

    Still no doubt about it.

    A bit cherry picking, but hey, this is the models thread 🙂

     

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