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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    Just now, Frosty Winter said:

    The latest CFS run brings in an easterly by the 7th February with a beautiful cold pool to tap into to our NE. Another run that continues the trend for a cold spell during February that I was speaking about earlier as well!❄️
     

    Well. Seem to me a historical February with CFS 😉

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh, goody goody gum drops, here are the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    What to make of that, eh?!🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    37 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    A very snowy end to the ECM

    516637E8-DFE3-4EF8-B76D-C99690DD671E.jpeg

    Still looks like the higher areas getting the most snow on that chart? 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent

    Model fatigue for in here for some. Or a bit of reverse psychology going on; I’m not sure..

    Early February looks like the next chase for widespread snow for the UK and the background signals are showing little chinks of light in the current output. 
     

    Keeps me interested that’s for sure. 

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    Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent
    13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The eps control even snowier than the 00z run in that a larger area under deep snow by day 12/13 ...... would be nuts !

    but unlike the 00z run, it then breaks down as a system moves in from the west 

    Is the EC control run viewable, BA?

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    21 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Still looks like the higher areas getting the most snow on that chart? 🤔

    That would always be the case wouldn’t it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

    Is the EC control run viewable, BA?

    complete_model_modez_2021012312_318_18_1
    METEOLOGIX.COM

    ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/05/2021, 06:00pm of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "United Kingdom"

     

     

    Screenshot_20210123-200120.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:
    complete_model_modez_2021012312_318_18_1
    METEOLOGIX.COM

    ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/05/2021, 06:00pm of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "United Kingdom"

     

     

    Screenshot_20210123-200120.png

    Crikey, almost as busy as your notification bar! 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Cleckheaton
    8 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

    Model fatigue for in here for some. Or a bit of reverse psychology going on; I’m not sure..

    Early February looks like the next chase for widespread snow for the UK and the background signals are showing little chinks of light in the current output. 
     

    Keeps me interested that’s for sure. 

    I've had a few days off watching the models and everything is still 10+ days off 😭

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, thestixx said:

    I've had a few days off watching the models and everything is still 10+ days off 😭

    It really isn’t ...... parts of the south will see a couple inches of snowfall tomorrow ........ 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, Snow White said:

    I wouldn’t think that chart would break down. I think it would be a similar situation to 21st March 2013 where the cold air wins.

    image.thumb.png.10f91fcf1771ff09359d223db4eddca4.png   
     

    thats day 15 ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The eps control even snowier than the 00z run in that a larger area under deep snow by day 12/13 ...... would be nuts !

    but unlike the 00z run, it then breaks down as a system moves in from the west 

    Wow. The UK is purple. Control run of this evening. Excuse. Double post.

    complete_model_modez_2021012312_306_4855
    METEOLOGIX.COM

    ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/05/2021, 07:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

     

    Knipsel.JPG

    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Dissect at your pleasure. Thinking further North and beefier front

    image.thumb.png.2204180fea4524456d5779f99b650c9f.png

     

     

    Screenshot_20210123_204924_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Dissect at your pleasure. Thinking further North and beefier front

    image.thumb.png.2204180fea4524456d5779f99b650c9f.png

    Screenshot_20210123_204414.jpg

    Aperge looks inline with the radar 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Icon adjusts slightly north again with the band of precipitation, looks further north on current radar too.

     

    Just edited pic to 20.30 not 19.00

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    ECM mean . OP was near the top of the pack later on.

     

     

    london_ecmsd850 (4).png

    At D8, about 70% of the ECM ensembles have low pressure going underneath higher pressure to the NE (mainly weak ridges), and not many runs at all getting the 0C uppers line through the SW. Looks like next weekend will, again, have wintry potential for many areas. Control run is the leading mongral with a ridiculous amount of snow to start February.

    Certainly has a SSW feel to it - Atlantic keeps looking like it might take over in our latitudes but lacks the energy to do so.

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