Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Battleground Snow]

Wedge is weak at 168 on ECM, but next frame should be good. The gem shows we don't need it very strong to draw the cold in. It is different to the GFS at that time though

Usually Ukmo/ECM combo is correct at 120. I suspect the ECM and ukmo are modelling the MJO progression more accurately than the GFS

 

 

[Ice Day]

It's a messy old 192, cold in the east mind

[Zak M]

Decent 12z ECM @192. Cold uppers approaching eastern parts.

   

Edited January 23, 2021 by Zak M

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

By the way the ecm has pushed the snow north tomorrow makes me think gfs has lead the way today with this event!!

I'd wait until we see where snow falls , no model has won anything yet , it's incredible at such a short range there isn't cross board agreement 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Decent 12z ECM @192. Cold uppers approaching eastern parts.

   

It’s possible they might have been and gone, and are on their way out again between the 24hr time steps.

[sebastiaan1973]

144H NH in my eyes, this is an important chart. Because we don't see the Arctic High dropping extreme cold air into the Norwegian Sea. So low pressure won't develop.

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

By the way the ecm has pushed the snow north tomorrow makes me think gfs has lead the way today with this event!!

Let’s not forget that 48hrs ago people were mocking the ECM for showing widespread snow in the south tomorrow and it was one of the only models that took it north of the M4 amd east of Swindon. Even UKV and Euro4 was having none of it yesterday morning 

[Tim Bland]

Incoming ...

[Battleground Snow]

I think we are going to see a big improvement on the De Bilt charts later based on this run up till 216

Edited January 23, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Ice Day]

The ECM at 216, whilst not great for us yet, does at least have some 'proper' cold waiting in the wings

 

[sebastiaan1973]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think we are going to see a big improvement on the De Bilt charts later based on this run up till 216

I hope for an even colder Control

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The ECM at 216, whilst not great for us yet, does at least have some 'proper' cold waiting in the wings

 

Depends on your location as most of Eastern Scotland and England would disagree.

Edited January 23, 2021 by winterof79

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The ECM at 216, whilst not great for us yet, does at least have some 'proper' cold waiting in the wings

 

Snow event in the south and likely to drag that cold down as the low clears.

Really nice ECM

[Snowman.]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Snow event in the south and likely to drag that cold down as the low clears.

Really nice ECM

Or maybe not..

The bowling balls strike back. Its so far out it doesnt matter too much, the trend over the past day is wedges and lows heading further south, long may it continue!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I hope for an even colder Control

Well, if I don't see a lovely drifty 30cm of snow soon, I'll go completely mad!

So... YES PLEASE! 

Edited January 23, 2021 by General Cluster

[nick sussex]

Interesting change on the fax chart for day 3 .

An occlusion moving ne with cold air still in place ahead of it so could be some more frontal snow .

The ECM throws a curveball into proceedings with that shortwave energy disrupting se between day 4 and 5 .

Operation slow the mild incursion still has some life in it . Can we get more southwards corrections ?

[Tim Bland]

A very snowy end to the ECM

[SLEETY]

Dont like ecm run,the really cold air never makes it,but it will be mild outlier at the end like it always is nearly every time

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A very snowy end to the ECM

Avoid posting that in the SE thread aha.

Nice ECM ending is a bit mehh, but would get corrected later on (hopefully). Pleased with the day lets just hope it continues.

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Dont like ecm run,the really cold air never makes it,but it will be mild outlier at the end like it always is nearly every time

It’s a terrific run for cold in my view. With scope for upgrades galore. 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Avoid posting that in the SE thread aha.

Nice ECM ending is a bit mehh, but would get corrected later on (hopefully). Pleased with the day lets just hope it continues.

I wouldn’t take it literally at all... just hope it keeps repeating the general theme of Atlantic under cutting cold air with snow for many, 

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

By the way the ecm has pushed the snow north tomorrow makes me think gfs has lead the way today with this event!!

Is that cos gfs comes out 2 hours earlier ?

it’s not a huge difference run to run from ecm anyway - it’s been way more enthusiastic for Sunday snow than the other models for days now 

we’ll find out soon anyway !

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Let’s not forget that 48hrs ago people were mocking the ECM for showing widespread snow in the south tomorrow and it was one of the only models that took it north of the M4 amd east of Swindon. Even UKV and Euro4 was having none of it yesterday morning 

100% agree. Icon, Arpege and Arome all had a very southwrn and westerly event. Only the Harmonie alongside the GFS had a NE spread. Nice to see. 

 

 

[Matt H]

6 hours ago, Frosty Winter said:

The latest CFS run is still setting up a decent cold spell during February. It has virtually been rock solid with this signal recently so it will be very interesting to see what transpires.

The latest CFS run brings in an easterly by the 7th February with a beautiful cold pool to tap into to our NE. Another run that continues the trend for a cold spell during February that I was speaking about earlier as well!

[Frosty.]

I just looked at the ECM 12z op and I thought aww jeez..we are so tantalisingly close too something spectacular..just a few more nudges in the right (cold) direction and it’s a BINGO!

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jon Snow