Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I usually find she sits on the fence like the pros in all honesty. I don't doubt her knowledge, but I'm all for people sticking their neck on the line and making a big call in plain English

Is that sitting on the fence ?  Just giving us more information ......  Things are generally never black or white ....... you can make a punt but at a range over ten days that’s all it is .....a punt ! I to find that those who understand the most are less likely to make a prediction because they appreciate the complexities a bit more .....

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, General Cluster said:

On the contrary, she does precisely what the data suggest one should do. After all, how many dare-devil Snowmageddon 'forecasts' have come to nothing . . . almost all of them?

Hey, all I want is some kind of handle on what the weather might do . . . By the way, Ice Cold in Alex was a great movie!

Yes, but it would be a much duller forum. The ups and downs make it better in my opinion, wanting snow is like supporting a league two club....disappointing most of the time but you get the occasional high of a cup run and a giant killing!

[Alexis]

47 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is that the latest update!!cos if it is thats pushed much further north!!

I'm more interested in Monday! Supposed to be a weakening snowy occlusion moving south, but that fax indicates it might have a bit more kick to it.

[swfc]

44 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think some on here are trying to nail it down to the nearest mile mate Remember the December 2017 snow event for the Midlands? That event 24hrs earlier was nearly 100 mile further North! In most cases corrections are Southwards as the clock ticks down. Its possible this feature may grind to a halt! I would be very surprised though if this system reached the North....anyway they've had enough recently...dont be greedy guys...

Is this model related? Should be in the regional thread

[BlackburnChris]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I'm more interested in Monday! Supposed to be a weakening snowy occlusion moving south, but that fax indicates it might have a bit more kick to it.

Yes looks like it could be quite heavy over NW Manchester / Lancashire before heading into the Midlands .

[The Beast From The East]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

If ukmo is right the only real mild day is thursday!!what a change!!

Hope the mild spell is short lived... This is what the TV forecast showed just 20 minutes ago for next week.. Up to 13 degrees..

Edited January 23, 2021 by The BEAST From The East

[Battleground Snow]

Tim must be busy so here it is...

 

[Fozfoster]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Tim must be busy so here it is...

 

if only

[winterof79]

ECM siding with UMO at 96z

GFS

[bluearmy]

 

this may make things more wedgy 

[Captain Shortwave]

Yesterday’s 12z for Wednesday 

Today’s 

 

Quite a change in terms of how the ridge near the U.K. is modelled with a stronger push north of warm air towards Iceland.

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is that sitting on the fence ?  Just giving us more information ......  Things are generally never black or white ....... you can make a punt but at a range over ten days that’s all it is .....a punt ! I to find that those who understand the most are less likely to make a prediction because they appreciate the complexities a bit more .....

If you understand the most and the result of that is to not make predictions/forecasts. Then why?  The written word can come across as sarcastic and I hope this doesn’t. I just think that if you take the time to understand a subject, whatever that subject is, then is it not to make you more informed? Wrt weather then that is to predict/forecast.

I do understand looking back seeing what happened and what may have influenced it for future reference. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, looks like more of a wedge at this point than UKMO for comparison:

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Tim must be busy so here it is...

 

Thanks Sorry..My wife keeps talking at me..you would think she knows better when their is snow on the horizon!!  
 

ECM is awesome for a lot of people. It’s also been very consistent these past few days re tomorrow! 

[sebastiaan1973]

What a strange looking chart from the GFS ENS.

[Griff]

 What happens next.... 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Griff

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, maybe a slider here:

[Ice Day]

Solid set of 12z GEFS - a colder pattern starts to emerge around the 1st Feb, in what shape or form of how (or if) the cold arrives is the million dollar question.  Definitely something to build on.

 

[Tamara]

12 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

It is true though isn't it? Cold bias informs or influences a lot of thinking and a lot of posts on here - and I've been part of that. I think a degree of sympathy is warranted. If you have so many people all desperately wanting one outcome, this isn't just to be expected but is absolutely inevitable.

But we still ought to aspire to more... In any case, those who watch or post year round will have noticed just how accurately @Tamara - with her marvelously dispassionate, almost robotic style - routinely calls it. 

Thanks - apologies for sounding robotic though. However it is to a large degree, somewhat reluctantly, deliberately written that way to try to emphasise neutrality that has to be adopted in order to provide explanations of what is behind the numerical modelling. Its a self learning exercise more than anything, as there is always so much more to understand. Tweaking such an approach to one outcome is self defeating in as much as it not providing a complete picture when there appears to be more than just that one outcome. Irrespective of what the final outcome ends up being. It is admittedly a good reason why the winter is not the most suitable time to attempt this approach, though sometimes things are written that feel right to put into perspective and that is what some of these posts attempt to do. As for accuracy, it is far more important to try to understand and learn first and foremost - any accuracy is a nice surprise and a bonus and a lot more is actually learnt in truth when things go wrong. And things clearly do not always follow 'a script' by any means.   So it is not something to worry about 

 

20 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I usually find she sits on the fence like the pros in all honesty. I don't doubt her knowledge, but I'm all for people sticking their neck on the line and making a big call in plain English

If an assessment is made and there is more than one outcome that is possible, then making a 'big call' as you put it, is not actually 'calling it' at all - if one sticks their neck out for the sake of being seen to come to an emphatic single conclusion and dismisses the other possibilities. Surely it defeats the whole object of doing any assessment in the first place if ALL the conclusions are going to be ignored? Also this is not about competitive forecasting, there is no prize to be correct (and I am not a forecaster anyway) .. Personally its about testing out summaries, and then let time find out the reality and update accordingly. Its not trying to appear to be clever - its simply transparent continuity whether the thinking is right...or wrong.

My own interest is the range of outcomes, not chasing a single one because everyone likes it. I recognise that conflicts with the interests of many on this thread. But so be it - there is a lot more to worry about in the real world, especially at the moment, and its not a day job

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Tamara said:

Thanks - apologies for sounding robotic though. However it is to a large degree, somewhat reluctantly, deliberately written that way to try to emphasise neutrality that has to be adopted in order to provide explanations of what is behind the numerical modelling. Its a self learning exercise more than anything, as there is always so much more to understand. Tweaking such an approach to one outcome is self defeating in as much as it not providing a complete picture when there appears to be more than just that one outcome. Irrespective of what the final outcome ends up being. It is admittedly a good reason why the winter is not the most suitable time to attempt this approach, though sometimes things are written that feel right to put into perspective and that is what some of these posts attempt to do. As for accuracy, it is far more important to try to understand and learn first and foremost - any accuracy is a nice surprise and a bonus and a lot more is actually learnt in truth when things go wrong. And things clearly do not always follow 'a script' by any means.   So it is not something to worry about 

 

If an assessment is made and there is more than one outcome that is possible, then making a 'big call' as you put it, is not actually 'calling it' at all - if one sticks their neck out for the sake of being seen to come to an emphatic single conclusion and dismisses the other possibilities. Surely it defeats the whole object of doing any assessment in the first place if ALL the conclusions are going to be ignored? Also this is not about competitive forecasting, there is no prize to be correct (and I am not a forecaster anyway) .. Personally its about testing out summaries, and then let time find out the reality and update accordingly. Its not trying to appear to be clever - its simply transparent continuity whether the thinking is right...or wrong.

My own interest is the range of outcomes, not chasing a single one because everyone likes it. I recognise that conflicts with the interests of many on this thread. But so be it - there is a lot more to worry about in the real world, especially at the moment, and its not a day job

Thanks Tamara - I agree, but I love a little drama. I certainly didn't mean to talk you down.....I have the upmost respect

[sheikhy]

What an ecm so far!!!up to 144 hours even better than ukmo!!is there any chance the snow tomorrow is causing the differences further with more cold dense air over england because of the snow tomorrow?!

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, Griff said:

 What happens next.... 

This

Edited January 23, 2021 by winterof79

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, for most of the country the cold won’t be there until the low has gone through, maybe some back edge snow for the south, more for the north:

[sheikhy]

By the way the ecm has pushed the snow north tomorrow makes me think gfs has lead the way today with this event!!

[BlackburnChris]

The Low at +168 is deffinatly Sliding , That will drag some Cold air South again .