Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Tim Bland]

GFS goes a long way North but not very east tomorrow..Looks like Peterborough ~ Leicester is the peak..where is !!! Shakey!!!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo joins the wedge party at 144

 

Key thing is the shortwave to the sw doesn’t deepen as it runs east on day 7 . Need the wedge to strengthen and help keep that shortwave running more east and not ne.

The potential for some significant snow if that shortwave behaves , oh my what drama ! 

[sheikhy]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

GFS goes a long way North but not very east tomorrow..Looks like Peterborough ~ Leicester is the peak..where is !!! Shakey!!!

Im here tim im here!!!i am watching and that 12z gfs as bullseye as you can get for leicester!!!from here on in for my sanity im just gona radar watch for tomorrows snow!!!

[sheikhy]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Key thing is the shortwave to the sw doesn’t deepen as it runs east on day 7 . Need the wedge to strengthen and help keep that shortwave running more east and not ne.

The potential for some significant snow if that shortwave behaves , oh my what drama ! 

If ukmo is right the only real mild day is thursday!!what a change!!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

If ukmo is right the only real mild day is thursday!!what a change!!

Gem wallops the Midlands too, will be interesting to see the hi Res models later

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem wallops the Midlands too, will be interesting to see the hi Res models later

Gfs paralell decides to join the party!!

[nick sussex]

GFS and UKMO miles apart by day 6 .

Have to hope the GFS is wrong here as coldies are done with being shortchanged ! 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

GFS and UKMO miles apart by day 6 .

Have to hope the GFS is wrong here as coldies are done with being shortchanged ! 

More importantly we want the ecm to move towards ukmo at the very least!!

[Tim Bland]

Here’s the GEM tips out at 7-8cm around west mids. Definite trend north this afternoon 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s the GEM tips out at 7-8cm around west mids. Definite trend north this afternoon 

Right now its the global models v the high reso models!!!whose gona be right?!!

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS goes a long way North but not very east tomorrow..Looks like Peterborough ~ Leicester is the peak..where is !!! Shakey!!!

Mo radar having none of it. Stops around M4. Lots of chopping and changing. AROME and Harmonie has it slightly NE..

Bit Arpege and Arome sticks with MO

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

GFS and UKMO miles apart by day 6 .

Have to hope the GFS is wrong here as coldies are done with being shortchanged ! 

From a strictly statistical point of view the UKMO has fallen below 0.8 five times in the last 10-days at d6. Putting that in context, the previous 21-days it never went below 0.8, and the average before was nearer 0.9! ECM only went below 0.8 once! So 50% chance of being right or wrong?

 

[nick sussex]

Tomorrow there’s the band of precip associated more with the main low close to the triple point and then another band associated with the occlusion. The disagreements seem to be more in terms of the occlusion rather than the main low track .

[Battleground Snow]

GFS still doesn't work out too bad for coldies further down the line.

 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS goes a long way North but not very east tomorrow..Looks like Peterborough ~ Leicester is the peak..where is !!! Shakey!!!

Behind his green door!  I'll get my coat...

[Tim Bland]

I’d stick with higher res models. Most still go for Cotsworlds getting the most with it not going much further north / east than Milton Keynes area 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS still doesn't work out too bad for coldies further down the line.

 

Further down the line is the issue . The best route to cold is the quickest , we need to cheer on the UKMO as that has much more early potential .  Hopefully the ECM supports the UKMO trend .

[Captain Shortwave]

Slightly unusual to use this model for long term prospects. However the Arpege shows the significance of those weak heights to the north here.

 

That low disrupts and slides ESE through the southern half of the UK.

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[MATTWOLVES 3]

29 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Im here tim im here!!!i am watching and that 12z gfs as bullseye as you can get for leicester!!!from here on in for my sanity im just gona radar watch for tomorrows snow!!!

Hey mate I think all of the Midlands is in the firing line..hence the yellow warning..Tell the missus your working tomorrow and have a snow day Seriously folks for all of those who have yet to witness it,I really do hope that Sunday puts that right for you. Moving forward im starting to doubt this mild spell,and most definitely its duration..More Snow events incoming could be a decent call.

[Frosty.]

Correct me if I’m wrong guys..but just looking at the Gfs 12z op so far..there’s plenty of scope for trough disruption in the vicinity of good old Blighty?..so, Shirley, there’s a chance of some surprise snow?...or am I wearing rose tinted specs? ..you decide?...in my defence, the run is only half way done..normally I never comment on a run until it’s completed for fear of being made to look a complete fool...anyway..I think I’ve said enough already!

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Sweatyman]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d stick with higher res models. Most still go for Cotsworlds getting the most with it not going much further north / east than Milton Keynes area 

No thanks

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at the end of its run showing why we don't need mega northern blocking to achieve Uk cold. A wedge is all we need sometimes.

 

[Tim Bland]

PV on its last legs ...

[phil nw.]

24 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Slightly unusual to use this model for long term prospects. However the Arpege shows the significance of those weak heights to the north here.

 

That low disrupts and slides ESE through the southern half of the UK.

 

Yes a good spot.

It's interesting too as already pointed out by Nick S the UKMO shows some difference with the GFS with the movement north of the mild push.

Looking at day 5 UKMO already showing a little wedge to the west of Scotland which it develops whilst GFS doesn't and pushes another little ridge north 24 hrs later.

UKMO are the first images on the left-day 5 above day 6 on both.

Maybe not enough in the small detail to stop some mild inroads further south by mid-week but it will likely affect the duration of any milder conditions and of course how far north it reaches.

Edited January 23, 2021 by phil nw.
Added further charts and text for clarity.

[ML1996]

NMM 2km has it very far north, with some snow getting up to the southern edge of South Yorkshire. Definitely seems like it's going to be a case of radar watching for pretty much everyone.

Edited January 23, 2021 by ML1996