Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[winterof79]

53 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

just delayed.......

Very delayed

[Cold Winter Night]

3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

 

That control... ah, a dream indeed.
10C below zero during the day, at least 3 days in a row, less than two weeks away!
If anyone wants an example of an outlier, here it is.

It sort of looks like putting up birthday decorations, but the tape doesn't stick

The rest of the ensemble is pretty average, but considering all the other output, I would not be surprised to see that swing down.

But still, that control...

[MJB]

850's shouldn't be an issue 

All JFF of course 

[MJB]

Heavy snow for England and Wales .............all change on the 12z no doubt 

[MJB]

Looking at the GEFS ,HP seems to be the form horse as we move into the first week of Feb , BUT where it will set up remains to be seen 

[Matt H]

The latest CFS run is still setting up a decent cold spell during February. It has virtually been rock solid with this signal recently so it will be very interesting to see what transpires.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

17 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

The latest CFS run is still setting up a decent cold spell during February. It has virtually been rock solid with this signal recently so it will be very interesting to see what transpires.

A month away though so I can not seeing this holding up.

[bluearmy]

40 minutes ago, MJB said:

Heavy snow for England and Wales .............all change on the 12z no doubt 

Heavy ??  The blue is light .......

[Man With Beard]

Ecm clusters d12 - not bad for cold, and probably a bit dryer for that matter - but really must have a strong trough anomaly over central Europe (like cluster 2) if you're after deep cold 

 

[winterof79]

Thinking reserving judgment until the 12z s  comparing with yesterdays for trends to a colder start to FEB.

That's not floatin me boat. Or maybe it would 

[Penrith Snow]

Scotland has 850s above -5c on only one day during the entire GFS run.

And snowfall would be plentiful.

Scottish Ski Operators must be spitting nails

Andy

[MJB]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Heavy ??  The blue is light .......

Sorry , you are correct 

Certainly widespread but will be very different come the day and even by 5pm this evening 

[Battleground Snow]

MJO update, now firmly into the Western Pacific (maybe it wasn't a phantom signal after all?)

If it continues on that ECM trajectory, we would likely hit phase 8 eventually. This may support a griceland high

Expect the models to continue to spit out various options in the next few days of scandi highs, greenland highs or maybe even the fabled "sausage" 

[Eugene]

17 hours ago, Catacol said:

Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement parts of the country have seen far more snow than in any recent winter. Scotland has seen plenty as have parts of Northern England. The displacement has produced a consistent positive pressure anomaly to our NW but it has been positioned too far west to give us the blocking we need to get low pressure disrupting sufficiently on a NW/SE axis....but even given that we have seen plenty of cold. 3 milder days perhaps in the last 3 weeks? The southern half misses out and the call of fail goes up. More a question of imprecise commentary?

Going forward we look to see a combination of ongoing strat weakness and trop driving from the pacific to encourage anything but a flat pattern once again. The vortex is weak now, and even though set to move back towards a more central position there is plenty of scope here for the trop to take control given this kind of context at the start of Feb.

We are finally seeing some coherence to the MJO, and despite the need to take these plots with a degree of healthy scepticism the signal is clearly emerging into the western pacific and this favours height rises in the North Atlantic. 

I have begun to pay much less attention to NWP output because I think cold and snow opportunities of which there have been several recently are locked in for a while longer, and the macro pattern is broadly maintaining that interest. Once the macro pattern hits a sustained shape as it is now then the ups and downs of individual runs cease to become quite so intriguing. I would guess that late season wavelengths combined with an emerging MJO phase 7 might trend towards heights closer to Scandy, and perhaps a February on the horizon much closer to a "traditional" UK winter in the old style where snow in February was often more likely than in January. ECM tonight is very good for such battleground events were it to come to pass like this.

It's been a fascinating winter and a great winter for some. 22nd January marks 1/3 of winter gone if one uses the solstice markers, a bit more than that if you follow temperature trends. Just over half way if you stick to the Met definition of 1st December which personally I have never really understood, but it matters not. The point is there is plenty of winter left, and while the first half and the impact of a substantial SSW has not brought blizzards to the south those in the north have seen the cold impacts up close. 

Remember this glosea run from December?

 

3 month smoothed average - chocolate teapot. But where is the greatest fail this season? Maybe you might like to comment more accurately on that.

 

 

 

Great post, it's been a pretty decent winter here in lowland midlands. Thanks for all your input Catacol, i really appreciate it.

Doesn't look much of a warm up for midlands northwards next week and turning colder the following week. Think later on in Feb into most of March we'll see the coldest conditions of the winter. 

 

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

HARMONIE 6z take on tomorrow’s snow:

An area in central southern England might benefit from a longer period of snow due to that pivot towards the end, which fits with the detail of the MO warning.

Feb 1 2019 and my area (Fleet) was under a pivot I believe ( MetO called it a mesoscale event). We had 11 hrs of snow which gave one of the best snowfalls I have seen. 

Radar from Feb 1 2019 and my street

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Very delayed

Really??

[Methuselah]

06Z GEFS temp. ensembles are hardly jaw-dropping, if it's deep cold you're after:

    

More runs needed!

[IDO]

32 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

MJO update, now firmly into the Western Pacific (maybe it wasn't a phantom signal after all?)

If it continues on that ECM trajectory, we would likely hit phase 8 eventually. This may support a griceland high

Expect the models to continue to spit out various options in the next few days of scandi highs, greenland highs or maybe even the fabled "sausage" 

We shall have some confidence by Tuesday next week that the MJO is travelling through phase 6. There is a lag of about 7-days so we should not see the phase 7 (ecm) reaction until about the 10th Feb? So what we are seeing now in the models should not yet be a reaction to the NAO-/enso/phase 7 = northern-blocking? As the convection is starting from the low-frequency Maritime Continental then maybe we will get a stronger than normal Hadley response in the W. Pacific?

Fingers crossed that we get the MJO into 7 then 8. Of course, the  Atlantic wave pattern is not necessarily as potent as the Pacific standing wave, and other background signals could mess with that. However, it is better than no signal. Interesting to see if the SSWE interference enhances or disrupts that Rossby wave pattern? I am still fence-sitting but the trend is good.

[Battleground Snow]

13 minutes ago, IDO said:

We shall have some confidence by Tuesday next week that the MJO is travelling through phase 6. There is a lag of about 7-days so we should not see the phase 7 (ecm) reaction until about the 10th Feb? So what we are seeing now in the models should not yet be a reaction to the NAO-/enso/phase 7 = northern-blocking? As the convection is starting from the low-frequency Maritime Continental then maybe we will get a stronger than normal Hadley response in the W. Pacific?

Fingers crossed that we get the MJO into 7 then 8. Of course, the  Atlantic wave pattern is not necessarily as potent as the Pacific standing wave, and other background signals could mess with that. However, it is better than no signal. Interesting to see if the SSWE interference enhances or disrupts that Rossby wave pattern? I am still fence-sitting but the trend is good.

Well technically we are in 7 now, so the response to this would be shown on the 1st-3rd Feb which is just in the ECM OP 10 day range.

Using the non bias corrected version of the ECM phase diagram, which I believe the OP sits in, it never goes into 6.

I agree there are so many other factors in play at the moment that the MJO is not a magic bullet, but would much rather have it in 7 than in say 3 or 4, which I believe scuppered our QTR from the first SSW

Edited January 23, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Uncertainty]

Well we finally a new GFS para to digest and whilst no BFTE it’s very wedgey and ECM like and snowy again (especially for central and southern areas) from next weekend onwards

 

 

 

These battlegrounds kick off from day 7 so it will be very interesting to see if the colder earlier trends on the para/ECM have some validity.

[Battleground Snow]

9 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Well we finally a new GFS para to digest and whilst no BFTE it’s very wedgey and ECM like and snowy again (especially for central and southern areas) from next weekend onwards

 

 

 

These battlegrounds kick off from day 7 so it will be very interesting to see if the colder earlier trends on the para/ECM have some validity.

Good to see it back just in time for this interesting period coming up.

Has the Sunday snow much further north, which would bring into play more areas.

[IDO]

11 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Well we finally a new GFS para to digest and whilst no BFTE it’s very wedgey and ECM like and snowy again (especially for central and southern areas) from next weekend onwards
These battlegrounds kick off from day 7 so it will be very interesting to see if the colder earlier trends on the para/ECM have some validity.

Yes, the para what @bluearmy was expecting from the gfs 06z till it when to its usual standard deviation post-d10:

Nice wedge with the Atlantic undercutting. "The King is dead long live the King" as long as it throws out charts like this!

[Paul White.]

Hi everyone quick question, how do you block some posters.  I always thought it was the 3 dots at the side of their name. I’m not trying to be antagonistic, it’s just some posts I would rather not read. I am sure I am not alone in my thinking. Any help would be appreciated thanks and kind regards.

 

Paul

[Vikos]

3 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

Hi everyone quick question, how do you block some posters.  I always thought it was the 3 dots at the side of their name. I’m not trying to be antagonistic, it’s just some posts I would rather not read. I am sure I am not alone in my thinking. Any help would be appreciated thanks and kind regards.

 

Paul

[beefy201]

Just a question as much as love the entertainment on here do you guys actually realise that most of the weather and in particular snow has not shown up further than 4 days ahead .... I can point to much of the snow fall last night as an example . Just for fun I have been comparing much of the hmmmm models chat on here for the last 8 weeks and also looking at the bbc country file forecast for the week ahead and to be honest shock horror not one has achieved more than 40% accuracy